mktpavlenko

Recap of the last 18 hours. Overnight: broke the $76.1k floor that capped every bounce last week, printed $72,728 low. EU midday: reclaimed $75.3k. US open: the retest of $76.1k came in soft. Sellers stacked under the level, no clean reclaim, BTC drifted back to $74.8k.
That resolves the midday question. Failed retest, not clean reclaim. $76.1k is now confirmed resistance, not noise.
What I am watching into tomorrow:
1) PCE inflation print drops US morning. That is the catalyst that moves real money, not the bounce-and-fade chop we watched all day. A cool print and the $76.1k wall gets tested with macro tailwind. A hot print and $72.5k gets retested with none.
2) Fear & Greed at 25 with BTC dominance at 60% tells me the pain is still in alts. ETH reclaimed $2k but barely. SOL is the only top-3 alt printing relative strength, mostly on fee revenue and on-chain activity rather than price.
3) The overnight compression range I am marking is $74k-$76k. Outside that pre-PCE means someone has new information. Inside means the market is waiting for the print.
The setup is binary, the catalyst is timed, the levels are well-defined. That is unusually clean for crypto. The move after PCE should be the cleanest read of the week, up or down.
Where are you parking risk into the print $BTC $ETH ?

BTC noslēdza ES sesiju pie $75.9k, samazinoties par 1.6%, beidzot zaudējot $76.1k grīdu, kuru aizsargāja divas reizes šonedēļ. Bailes un alkatība krita līdz 30. Izskatās pēc tīra lāču apvēršanās.
Tad es izvilku ETF plūsmas pārskatu, un aina kļuva interesantāka.
Pagājušajā nedēļā: BTC spot ETF izdrukāja -$1.26B neto izplūdes. ETH ETF pievienoja vēl -$215M otro nedēļu pēc kārtas sarkanā. No virsmas tas apstiprina lāču scenāriju.
Bet tajā pašā nedēļā: SOL produkti ieguva +$22M, XRP +$15.6M, HYPE ap +$72M. Kapitāls neiznāk no kriptovalūtām - tas rotē no pārpildītajiem lielajiem uz augstāka beta nosaukumiem.

Three things I am watching at EU midday:
1) BTC dominance stuck at 54.3%. Every bounce attempt this week has died at 55%. Either we break it this session or the rotation thesis stays intact through US open.
2) ETH ETF flows: +$95M for day three despite price down 2%. That divergence between flow and price action is usually short-term resolution upside.
3) Iran headlines flushed $250M leverage overnight. Open interest reset is a feature, not a bug. Pre-news positioning was overcrowded long.
What is the level you are watching today $BTC ?

When BTC dominance rises, the lazy take is "altcoin season is over, dump your bags."
Look closer.
$BTC dominance at 58% during a -2% market day means one thing: capital is consolidating, not exiting. Traders are not selling crypto. They are sheltering in the asset with the deepest liquidity and the lowest tail risk.
This has happened before. Late 2019. Mid-2022. Each time dominance peaked, $ETH and large-cap alts had their next leg up within 60-90 days.
What I am watching:
1) $ETH compression at $2,050-2,150. A weekly close above $2,150 historically precedes alt rotation.
2) BTC dominance topping pattern. 58-60% has been the ceiling in this cycle.
3) Fear and Greed at 34. Capitulation buyers show up below 25.
Range-bound markets are not boring. They are the setup before the move.
What is your dominance target before you rotate back into alts?