金叶-小锦鲤
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金叶-小锦鲤
公众号《金叶的交易日记》、聊天室ID《7dmfqxxo6》专注、耐心、知行合一。梦想是做一名专业行情分析师和交易者，行情分享非投资建议。
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Daily main sharing: Bitcoin, gold and other varieties’ chart analysis and personal trading thoughts
Each section of market perspective is an objective interpretation drawn from a long-term summary of technical patterns and trading logic. It’s only suitable for everyone to exchange and reference, not as actionable investment advice.
If you want to discuss the market chart movement together, you can come to the chat room with ID: 7dmfqxxo6$BTC $ETH $SOL
Each section of market perspective is an objective interpretation drawn from a long-term summary of technical patterns and trading logic. It’s only suitable for everyone to exchange and reference, not as actionable investment advice.
If you want to discuss the market chart movement together, you can come to the chat room with ID: 7dmfqxxo6$BTC $ETH $SOL
6.30 Big Biscuit Pre-dawn Analysis
Judging from the candlestick arrangement in the screenshot, when the price rebounds to around 60,000, the short-term moving averages (such as MA5/MA10) have most likely already formed, or are about to form, a bearish cross with downward divergence.
In this stage, the K-lines alternate between up and down, repeatedly oscillating. The bullish candle bodies are relatively small; after a quick push up, the price falls back rapidly. The inflow intensity of long positions is weak, and after the short-term buying, there is not enough follow-through.
Trading suggestion: place short orders in the 60,600–60,800 range. Target 59,500; if it breaks down, look for the downside toward the 58,952 low point. $BTC #比特币
Judging from the candlestick arrangement in the screenshot, when the price rebounds to around 60,000, the short-term moving averages (such as MA5/MA10) have most likely already formed, or are about to form, a bearish cross with downward divergence.
In this stage, the K-lines alternate between up and down, repeatedly oscillating. The bullish candle bodies are relatively small; after a quick push up, the price falls back rapidly. The inflow intensity of long positions is weak, and after the short-term buying, there is not enough follow-through.
Trading suggestion: place short orders in the 60,600–60,800 range. Target 59,500; if it breaks down, look for the downside toward the 58,952 low point. $BTC #比特币
Is it empty now? Next target 57800 is just one last step away.
From 60800 to 58900, you earned 1900—$BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期
From 60800 to 58900, you earned 1900—$BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期
Midday at 1588 we issued a call for a major short; perfectly reached the second target at 1560, earning 28 points
The market’s trend will not accommodate anyone. Going against the trend in a battle of nerves will ultimately be hard to sustain.
Calmly wait for the rebound pressure level, then build your short positions in batches. That is far more stable and reliable than rushing into a contrarian trade.$ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期
The market’s trend will not accommodate anyone. Going against the trend in a battle of nerves will ultimately be hard to sustain.
Calmly wait for the rebound pressure level, then build your short positions in batches. That is far more stable and reliable than rushing into a contrarian trade.$ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期
6.29 Ethereum midday analysis
From the 15-minute cycle candlestick chart, it is clear that Ethereum’s early deep dip slid to the 1546.69 low to complete a round of oversold conditions. Afterwards, a short-term, retaliatory rebound kicked in. Price surged up to 1589.46 but met resistance and pulled back; the current price is 1586, and the upside momentum has clearly weakened.
Throughout the session, the market maintained a low-level consolidation and base-building pattern. Bulls and bears repeatedly fought, and the bottom support is not solid. This upswing is mainly driven by short-term capital inflows and has poor follow-through; it has not formed a steady upward (bullish) trend. After earlier consecutive large bearish candles, the short side’s bottom-position structure remains intact. The rebound is only a phase of consolidation.
The long-term four-hour bearish trend remains unchanged. We still stick to the idea of going short on rebounds as the primary strategy.
Trading suggestion: short directly in the 1588-1600 zone. Targets: 1580, then 1560. If it breaks out, watch 1546$ETH #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期
From the 15-minute cycle candlestick chart, it is clear that Ethereum’s early deep dip slid to the 1546.69 low to complete a round of oversold conditions. Afterwards, a short-term, retaliatory rebound kicked in. Price surged up to 1589.46 but met resistance and pulled back; the current price is 1586, and the upside momentum has clearly weakened.
Throughout the session, the market maintained a low-level consolidation and base-building pattern. Bulls and bears repeatedly fought, and the bottom support is not solid. This upswing is mainly driven by short-term capital inflows and has poor follow-through; it has not formed a steady upward (bullish) trend. After earlier consecutive large bearish candles, the short side’s bottom-position structure remains intact. The rebound is only a phase of consolidation.
The long-term four-hour bearish trend remains unchanged. We still stick to the idea of going short on rebounds as the primary strategy.
Trading suggestion: short directly in the 1588-1600 zone. Targets: 1580, then 1560. If it breaks out, watch 1546$ETH #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #以太坊ETF批准预期
6.29 Big Pancake Analysis
The US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields continue to rise, with rate-hike expectations increasingly intensifying. Under this bearish backdrop, Bitcoin’s downtrend—where the weekly timeframe remains under overall pressure—has become very evident.
As the market enters a lull over the weekend, trading volume is subdued and price volatility narrows. BTC has been oscillating and consolidating within a range for a long time, failing to break out into a clear trend. In the early morning, price briefly probed upward to the 60,900 resistance level, then met with selling pressure and pulled back. After retesting the 59,700 support, it rebounded slightly. At present, it is trading sideways around 60,500.
Technically, it is clearly visible that the bears are in control. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have been gradually closing in; multiple attempts to push upward have failed to hold above the resistance level. These rebounds are merely technical repairs after a large selloff and do not have the momentum for sustained upside. The hourly chart has already formed a top structure. Repeated testing has fully confirmed that overhead pressure is heavy, and in the short term the upside thrust from bulls has been effectively exhausted.
Trading plan: Short around 59,800–61,000. The first target for the short term is set at 57,800. If it breaks, look at 54000$BTC #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #比特币
The US Dollar Index and US Treasury yields continue to rise, with rate-hike expectations increasingly intensifying. Under this bearish backdrop, Bitcoin’s downtrend—where the weekly timeframe remains under overall pressure—has become very evident.
As the market enters a lull over the weekend, trading volume is subdued and price volatility narrows. BTC has been oscillating and consolidating within a range for a long time, failing to break out into a clear trend. In the early morning, price briefly probed upward to the 60,900 resistance level, then met with selling pressure and pulled back. After retesting the 59,700 support, it rebounded slightly. At present, it is trading sideways around 60,500.
Technically, it is clearly visible that the bears are in control. The 4-hour Bollinger Bands have been gradually closing in; multiple attempts to push upward have failed to hold above the resistance level. These rebounds are merely technical repairs after a large selloff and do not have the momentum for sustained upside. The hourly chart has already formed a top structure. Repeated testing has fully confirmed that overhead pressure is heavy, and in the short term the upside thrust from bulls has been effectively exhausted.
Trading plan: Short around 59,800–61,000. The first target for the short term is set at 57,800. If it breaks, look at 54000$BTC #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #比特币
The empty move of the big pancake 60800: it touched the low at 59700, and we gained 1100 points.
Being able to trade with calm confidence and a sense of certainty has never depended on accidental luck.
It comes from day after day of repeatedly reviewing the chart—slowly refining and honing your skills through countless real-world practices.$BTC #比特币
Being able to trade with calm confidence and a sense of certainty has never depended on accidental luck.
It comes from day after day of repeatedly reviewing the chart—slowly refining and honing your skills through countless real-world practices.$BTC #比特币
6.27 SOL analysis
On the SOL 4-hour chart, the bearish tone is very stable. The medium-term trend moving averages continue to decline, exerting long-term pressure on the price action. 72.50 is the key resistance level of this current phase of the market. At this stage, the coin price has consistently been under pressure below the short-term moving averages. The crucial defensive support below is set at 65.75.
After the hourly cycle completed a bottoming process and stabilized, it launched a rebound rally. Currently, price is rising but has met resistance around the short-term resistance area at 71.8, and the move is being held back. Various technical indicators have already entered a high-range zone, and the momentum for short-term bulls to push upward is starting to gradually fade.
As long as the market cannot hold above the 72.50 level, every rebound is only a phase of consolidation within a downtrend.
Trading plan: If the rebound reaches the 71.80–72.30 area, look to go short, targeting 70.0. Going forward, the main focus will be on the 65.7 support level. $SOL
On the SOL 4-hour chart, the bearish tone is very stable. The medium-term trend moving averages continue to decline, exerting long-term pressure on the price action. 72.50 is the key resistance level of this current phase of the market. At this stage, the coin price has consistently been under pressure below the short-term moving averages. The crucial defensive support below is set at 65.75.
After the hourly cycle completed a bottoming process and stabilized, it launched a rebound rally. Currently, price is rising but has met resistance around the short-term resistance area at 71.8, and the move is being held back. Various technical indicators have already entered a high-range zone, and the momentum for short-term bulls to push upward is starting to gradually fade.
As long as the market cannot hold above the 72.50 level, every rebound is only a phase of consolidation within a downtrend.
Trading plan: If the rebound reaches the 71.80–72.30 area, look to go short, targeting 70.0. Going forward, the main focus will be on the 65.7 support level. $SOL
6.27 ETH analysis
On the 4-hour timeframe, the broader downtrend for Ethereum is already very clear. With each rebound, the peak keeps getting lower, and the market’s highs and lows continue to form a bearish BOS breakdown.
The Bollinger Bands opening continues extending downward, combined with the suppressing effect of the medium- to long-term moving averages. The chart has never managed to form a CHoCH bottom reversal structure. At this stage, the sideways consolidation is merely a phase of stabilization within the broader downtrend. From both technical patterns and price action logic, there are no conditions that have been met to trigger a reversal into upside movement.
Looking at the 1-hour timeframe, the current sideways movement is only a short-term oversold rebound after the big drop. The short-term moving averages are still trending downward. The rebound lacks sustained upside momentum, and the structure of the overall descending channel remains intact.
Although various technical indicators have bounced somewhat from their low levels, they have not entered the overbought zone. The strength of the repair is gradually weakening, and there is a serious lack of momentum for bulls to push higher. In the near term, the probability that price faces pressure and pulls back is relatively high.
Trading plan: If the market rebounds to around 1585–1595, go short. Short-term targets are 1540 and 1520. For longer-term positioning, you may look toward 1490. $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期
On the 4-hour timeframe, the broader downtrend for Ethereum is already very clear. With each rebound, the peak keeps getting lower, and the market’s highs and lows continue to form a bearish BOS breakdown.
The Bollinger Bands opening continues extending downward, combined with the suppressing effect of the medium- to long-term moving averages. The chart has never managed to form a CHoCH bottom reversal structure. At this stage, the sideways consolidation is merely a phase of stabilization within the broader downtrend. From both technical patterns and price action logic, there are no conditions that have been met to trigger a reversal into upside movement.
Looking at the 1-hour timeframe, the current sideways movement is only a short-term oversold rebound after the big drop. The short-term moving averages are still trending downward. The rebound lacks sustained upside momentum, and the structure of the overall descending channel remains intact.
Although various technical indicators have bounced somewhat from their low levels, they have not entered the overbought zone. The strength of the repair is gradually weakening, and there is a serious lack of momentum for bulls to push higher. In the near term, the probability that price faces pressure and pulls back is relatively high.
Trading plan: If the market rebounds to around 1585–1595, go short. Short-term targets are 1540 and 1520. For longer-term positioning, you may look toward 1490. $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期
6.27 Big Cake Analysis
The four-hour level long-term short setup for the “Big Cake” has already been firmly established. With different-period moving averages aligned and sloping downward, they continue to exert pressure on the price on the board. The current minor rebound is merely a phase of consolidation and repair within an overall downtrend. To date, the chart has not formed a CHoCH bottom reversal pattern, and the overall downward channel remains intact.
The one-hour candlestick and the four-hour major cycle are in bearish alignment, creating a resonance effect. This rebound is only indicator-driven “repair” after a deep selloff. There is insufficient upside momentum to reverse the overall long-term bearish structure. At this stage, the support base on the board is rather weak, and the risk of blindly entering to bottom-fish is very high. If the price candle bodies break below the key support at 58556, the market will continue to decline and test the 57800 low.
Trading plan: Sell near 60400—60800 on the rebound, target 58556, and then the next observation point will be 57800.$BTC
The four-hour level long-term short setup for the “Big Cake” has already been firmly established. With different-period moving averages aligned and sloping downward, they continue to exert pressure on the price on the board. The current minor rebound is merely a phase of consolidation and repair within an overall downtrend. To date, the chart has not formed a CHoCH bottom reversal pattern, and the overall downward channel remains intact.
The one-hour candlestick and the four-hour major cycle are in bearish alignment, creating a resonance effect. This rebound is only indicator-driven “repair” after a deep selloff. There is insufficient upside momentum to reverse the overall long-term bearish structure. At this stage, the support base on the board is rather weak, and the risk of blindly entering to bottom-fish is very high. If the price candle bodies break below the key support at 58556, the market will continue to decline and test the 57800 low.
Trading plan: Sell near 60400—60800 on the rebound, target 58556, and then the next observation point will be 57800.$BTC
Cryptocurrencies fall across the board, with more than 200,000 liquidations
On June 25, cryptocurrencies fell across the board. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 2.86%, breaking below $60,000 and trading at $59,194. Ethereum was down 4.99%, and Dogecoin was down 4.94%.
According to CoinGlass data, within the past 24 hours, there were over 200,000 liquidations in the crypto market, with a liquidation amount of $1.458 billion. Long positions accounted for $1.161 billion in liquidations, while short positions accounted for $296 million. $BTC #比特币
On June 25, cryptocurrencies fell across the board. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 2.86%, breaking below $60,000 and trading at $59,194. Ethereum was down 4.99%, and Dogecoin was down 4.94%.
According to CoinGlass data, within the past 24 hours, there were over 200,000 liquidations in the crypto market, with a liquidation amount of $1.458 billion. Long positions accounted for $1.161 billion in liquidations, while short positions accounted for $296 million. $BTC #比特币
6.42 Big Pie Analysis
After the Big Pie rallied on the four-hour timeframe to form a top, the market repeatedly printed a bearish pattern characterized by BOS breaking to the downside. Each time the CHoCH reaction rebounded and repaired the situation, it was suppressed and rolled over by the intermediate moving averages. The moving averages have maintained a downward trajectory overall, and the downward running channel has already been fully formed.
The current rebound at the lower level is only technical correction following a sharp sell-off, and it has not produced any market signal capable of reversing the broader downtrend. At present, the price is running above the lower Bollinger Band at 59,300. The key intermediate resistance lies at 62,800, while the important support below is at 58,400.
As long as the price cannot effectively hold above 62,800, all rebounds are merely interim consolidations during the downward move.
Trading plan: Sell on the rebound around 60,000–60,600, targeting 58,400.$BTC #比特币
After the Big Pie rallied on the four-hour timeframe to form a top, the market repeatedly printed a bearish pattern characterized by BOS breaking to the downside. Each time the CHoCH reaction rebounded and repaired the situation, it was suppressed and rolled over by the intermediate moving averages. The moving averages have maintained a downward trajectory overall, and the downward running channel has already been fully formed.
The current rebound at the lower level is only technical correction following a sharp sell-off, and it has not produced any market signal capable of reversing the broader downtrend. At present, the price is running above the lower Bollinger Band at 59,300. The key intermediate resistance lies at 62,800, while the important support below is at 58,400.
As long as the price cannot effectively hold above 62,800, all rebounds are merely interim consolidations during the downward move.
Trading plan: Sell on the rebound around 60,000–60,600, targeting 58,400.$BTC #比特币
6.25 Bitcoin Midday Analysis
The four-hour chart has already established a long-term bearish trend, with all timeframe moving averages trending down, continuously applying pressure on the market.
Every short-term bounce we've seen is merely a technical correction within the downtrend; the market has yet to form a standard reversal bottom pattern, and the larger downtrend channel remains intact.
The one-hour and four-hour trends resonate with bearish signals, and the current slight rebound is just an indicator repair after an oversold condition. The momentum for upward movement is seriously lacking, unable to reverse the overall long-term bearish trajectory.
Currently, 61900 is only a temporary support created by market sentiment, lacking consecutive bullish candlesticks as structural support, making the defense strength quite weak.
Trading Plan: Go short around 61800–62000, with a short-term target of 60800; for the long-term, aim for 58400. $BTC $ETH
The four-hour chart has already established a long-term bearish trend, with all timeframe moving averages trending down, continuously applying pressure on the market.
Every short-term bounce we've seen is merely a technical correction within the downtrend; the market has yet to form a standard reversal bottom pattern, and the larger downtrend channel remains intact.
The one-hour and four-hour trends resonate with bearish signals, and the current slight rebound is just an indicator repair after an oversold condition. The momentum for upward movement is seriously lacking, unable to reverse the overall long-term bearish trajectory.
Currently, 61900 is only a temporary support created by market sentiment, lacking consecutive bullish candlesticks as structural support, making the defense strength quite weak.
Trading Plan: Go short around 61800–62000, with a short-term target of 60800; for the long-term, aim for 58400. $BTC $ETH
6.25 Bitcoin Analysis
The BTC four-hour chart is showing a solid bearish structure. After hitting a peak of 78000, we saw a CHoCH reversal, and the highs and lows have been consistently dropping. The bearish BOS has been cashing in continuously, making the downtrend smooth.
The 63800-67100 range is a standard bearish continuation zone, with the moving averages across all timeframes trending down, applying long-term pressure on the market.
Yesterday's big red candle broke the 60900 support, landing a new low at 59800, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards; the mid-to-long-term resistance moving average at 67100 is far from the current price, and the bullish moving average support has completely failed, with no bottom reversal structure in sight.
Trading Suggestion: Look to short around the 61200-61700 area, targeting 59800 and 58600. $BTC #比特币 $ETH
The BTC four-hour chart is showing a solid bearish structure. After hitting a peak of 78000, we saw a CHoCH reversal, and the highs and lows have been consistently dropping. The bearish BOS has been cashing in continuously, making the downtrend smooth.
The 63800-67100 range is a standard bearish continuation zone, with the moving averages across all timeframes trending down, applying long-term pressure on the market.
Yesterday's big red candle broke the 60900 support, landing a new low at 59800, and the Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards; the mid-to-long-term resistance moving average at 67100 is far from the current price, and the bullish moving average support has completely failed, with no bottom reversal structure in sight.
Trading Suggestion: Look to short around the 61200-61700 area, targeting 59800 and 58600. $BTC #比特币 $ETH
As we approach the end of June's market, a significant volatility window is set for this Wednesday. The strategy for a $5000 base position has been planned ahead of time. Partners who resonate with this concept can refer to the layout synchronously.
Only 5 slots left for the $5000 entry, and just 3 reservation spots remaining for the $10000 tier. If you're interested in capitalizing on the market, secure your position early $BTC $ETH #比特币走势分析 #比特币
Only 5 slots left for the $5000 entry, and just 3 reservation spots remaining for the $10000 tier. If you're interested in capitalizing on the market, secure your position early $BTC $ETH #比特币走势分析 #比特币
BTC has dropped below the crucial support at 63,000, with 2.5 billion in liquidations across the network, causing HYPE to significantly retrace to 62, spreading panic in the market.
In contrast, spot ETF funds continue to flow in, with big whale positions accumulating 6.69 million in batches during the dip.
Coins with real revenue, ongoing deflationary burns, and long-term institutional backing often experience short-term dips that are merely market shakeouts, presenting opportunities for low-cost entries.
Most traders hesitate at low levels, then blindly FOMO in after a pump, while the project fundamentals remain intact. Losses typically stem from chaotic trading driven by emotions. $BTC $HYPE #比特币 #hype
In contrast, spot ETF funds continue to flow in, with big whale positions accumulating 6.69 million in batches during the dip.
Coins with real revenue, ongoing deflationary burns, and long-term institutional backing often experience short-term dips that are merely market shakeouts, presenting opportunities for low-cost entries.
Most traders hesitate at low levels, then blindly FOMO in after a pump, while the project fundamentals remain intact. Losses typically stem from chaotic trading driven by emotions. $BTC $HYPE #比特币 #hype
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