H4bib_khan

My weekly Bitcoin update (a bit late this time because I wasn’t feeling well). Right now, I don’t see any strong entry setup, so I’m just observing and doing only short-term trades with smaller positions. My long-term holdings are unchanged.
1. What I’m seeing on the chart
For the first time since October 2025, Bitcoin closed a weekly candle above an important level (around $73,835 — the March 2024 high) which it had previously lost earlier this year. Now the price is coming back down and testing that same level from above. This area will decide if the recovery is real or not.
There are a few reasons why I’m still cautious. First, the recent green weekly candles came with relatively low volume — strong moves usually need strong volume. Second, for nearly 47 days, sellers in the futures market have been paying buyers, which is quite unusual for such a long time. Sometimes this means price is rising due to short squeezes rather than real demand. Third, the weekly EMA150 is right around this level. If price holds here, it could support further upside — but if it breaks, we may just continue ranging.
2. What’s supporting Bitcoin
In the last few weeks, US Bitcoin ETFs have seen strong inflows (around $2.4B), which is more than what miners are producing. Big players like BlackRock now hold a significant amount of BTC. Also, long-term holders seem to be accumulating again after selling for a while. Strategy also added over 34,000 BTC recently.
3. What’s creating pressure
There are still major macro risks. The Iran situation is ongoing, oil prices are up, and global uncertainty is high. Inflation in the US is still elevated, and institutions like the IMF and ECB are warning about possible stagflation. The Fed meeting is also coming up, which could impact markets.
Because of all this, I still see Bitcoin as a risk asset in the short term. The idea that it always protects against inflation doesn’t fully match past behavior — in many crises, BTC dropped along with stocks. That said, this cycle has been slightly different, likely due to ETF demand and institutional involvement.
4. Possible scenarios
A) Sideways (most likely for now)
Bitcoin moves between roughly $67k and $80k until a clear direction appears. It could slowly move up toward $90k–$100k and then face rejection.
B) Bullish move:If current support holds and inflows continue, we could see further upside. However, a strong trend shift probably only starts above $90k–$100k.
C) Downside move:First support is around $67k–$68k. If that breaks, next zone is $53k–$57k. A deeper bearish scenario could push it toward $40k, especially if panic or macro shocks hit the market.
Overall, the next big move will likely depend more on macro conditions (Fed decisions, inflation, global tensions) than just technical levels.
5. What I’m doing:My long-term Bitcoin strategy (DCA + holding) stays the same. For short-term trading, I’m keeping positions small and staying cautious. Right now, there’s no clear setup, and in choppy markets, risk is higher than reward.
I’m waiting for:
$* Strong support confirmation with better volume
* A clear breakdown
* Or more clarity from the macro
#BTC #Bitcoin #MarketAnalysis
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