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赵兄托你帮我办点事
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《BTC Dip-Buying Daily Report》
【Conclusion】Today is not about guessing the bottom. It’s about using long-term cost as a basis to run one low-risk trial; today’s status label: staggered entries zone. Bottom-picking judgment: you can do left-side staggered buying, but only with disciplined allocation, not with emotion. Total score: 79/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $59,987, which is about 3.9% below the CoinMetrics-derived 200WMA (still staying close to the long-term cost band); sentiment/leverage end FNG is 15 (extreme fear). Funding is mainly from OKX at +0.0085%/8h—fear has a discount, but the market hasn’t reached a “liquidation stampede” level in perpetuals. On-chain/valuation side, the MVRV-Z derived value is 0.21 and Puell is 0.58—valuation is still relatively cold. Data confidence: medium. Real-time price is available from 2 sources with a 0.137% disagreement. FNG and OKX funding are same-day data; CoinMetrics’ on-chain derivation is delayed by 2 days and can be scored normally. CVDD / supply-profit / supply-loss are older indicators: displayed only, not used to raise the score. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; if price falls back below the cost band, add again; if it rebounds and widens away, stop.
1）Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: Price has entered the trial zone, but the discount isn’t a deep “value pit.” BTC price $59,987 is about 3.9% below 200WMA $62,415. MVRV-Z 0.21 and Puell 0.58—both valuation and miner income are on the cold side. This sub-score: 42/50.
- Sentiment and leverage: Fear gives a discount, but leverage hasn’t delivered full marks. FNG 15 (extreme fear); funding only has OKX available—the latest settled value is +0.0085%/8h, still a low positive value, which doesn’t support a strong conclusion of “the whole market is crowded with shorts.” This sub-score: 22/25.
- On-chain supply distribution: Free-derived indicators support left-side entries; older coin-lot indicators are used only as background. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-09, with a latest value around $47,470. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-06, with values of 49.55% / 50.45%. If the delay exceeds 30 days, it won’t be included in the core scoring. This sub-score: 15/25.
2）Execution recommendations
- Open first: If you don’t have a starter position, use only the planned allocation of 10%-20% for the first trade to obtain entry qualification—don’t bet on the absolute lowest point.
- Only add: If price returns to the lower edge of the $58,000-$60,000 range, and FNG remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t rise to a highly positive level, add a second tranche using the same or a smaller portion.
- Wait: If price reclaims above 200WMA and quickly pulls away by 8%-10%, stop adding; wait for a retest or a new undervaluation signal.
- Don’t chase: Don’t “buy the gap” for a sharp intraday spike. The advantage of being in the staggered-entries zone comes from fear’s discount, not from chasing fast price action.
3）Invalidation conditions
- Downside trigger failure: If price drops below $56,000 and FNG does not enter further panic, and MVRV/Puell do not improve afterward, it indicates this isn’t a cheap-asset opportunity; it’s a shift in the valuation anchor, and the staggered-entry plan should be downgraded to a waiting zone.
- Upside trigger failure: If price rises above $67,500, while funding keeps turning to a more strongly positive value and FNG leaves the fear zone, today’s cost-effectiveness is no longer valid—stop left-side buying.
- Data trigger failure: If CoinMetrics later revises the data and clearly no longer supports undervaluation via 200WMA, MVRV-Z, or Puell, downgrade this 79/100 score.
【Conclusion】Today is not about guessing the bottom. It’s about using long-term cost as a basis to run one low-risk trial; today’s status label: staggered entries zone. Bottom-picking judgment: you can do left-side staggered buying, but only with disciplined allocation, not with emotion. Total score: 79/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $59,987, which is about 3.9% below the CoinMetrics-derived 200WMA (still staying close to the long-term cost band); sentiment/leverage end FNG is 15 (extreme fear). Funding is mainly from OKX at +0.0085%/8h—fear has a discount, but the market hasn’t reached a “liquidation stampede” level in perpetuals. On-chain/valuation side, the MVRV-Z derived value is 0.21 and Puell is 0.58—valuation is still relatively cold. Data confidence: medium. Real-time price is available from 2 sources with a 0.137% disagreement. FNG and OKX funding are same-day data; CoinMetrics’ on-chain derivation is delayed by 2 days and can be scored normally. CVDD / supply-profit / supply-loss are older indicators: displayed only, not used to raise the score. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; if price falls back below the cost band, add again; if it rebounds and widens away, stop.
1）Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: Price has entered the trial zone, but the discount isn’t a deep “value pit.” BTC price $59,987 is about 3.9% below 200WMA $62,415. MVRV-Z 0.21 and Puell 0.58—both valuation and miner income are on the cold side. This sub-score: 42/50.
- Sentiment and leverage: Fear gives a discount, but leverage hasn’t delivered full marks. FNG 15 (extreme fear); funding only has OKX available—the latest settled value is +0.0085%/8h, still a low positive value, which doesn’t support a strong conclusion of “the whole market is crowded with shorts.” This sub-score: 22/25.
- On-chain supply distribution: Free-derived indicators support left-side entries; older coin-lot indicators are used only as background. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-09, with a latest value around $47,470. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-06, with values of 49.55% / 50.45%. If the delay exceeds 30 days, it won’t be included in the core scoring. This sub-score: 15/25.
2）Execution recommendations
- Open first: If you don’t have a starter position, use only the planned allocation of 10%-20% for the first trade to obtain entry qualification—don’t bet on the absolute lowest point.
- Only add: If price returns to the lower edge of the $58,000-$60,000 range, and FNG remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t rise to a highly positive level, add a second tranche using the same or a smaller portion.
- Wait: If price reclaims above 200WMA and quickly pulls away by 8%-10%, stop adding; wait for a retest or a new undervaluation signal.
- Don’t chase: Don’t “buy the gap” for a sharp intraday spike. The advantage of being in the staggered-entries zone comes from fear’s discount, not from chasing fast price action.
3）Invalidation conditions
- Downside trigger failure: If price drops below $56,000 and FNG does not enter further panic, and MVRV/Puell do not improve afterward, it indicates this isn’t a cheap-asset opportunity; it’s a shift in the valuation anchor, and the staggered-entry plan should be downgraded to a waiting zone.
- Upside trigger failure: If price rises above $67,500, while funding keeps turning to a more strongly positive value and FNG leaves the fear zone, today’s cost-effectiveness is no longer valid—stop left-side buying.
- Data trigger failure: If CoinMetrics later revises the data and clearly no longer supports undervaluation via 200WMA, MVRV-Z, or Puell, downgrade this 79/100 score.
Today’s Crypto Headlines
1）UK FCA’s new crypto-asset regulatory framework enters the implementation phase: the application window is expected to open in September, with authorization applications due by the end of February 2027; the rules will take effect in October 2027. Capital, custody, and market-behavior requirements are clearer, and compliance barriers in Europe continue to rise.
2）BNY and Circle expand their partnership: USDC becomes the first stablecoin supported on BNY’s digital-asset custody platform. Institutional clients can custody, transfer, mint, and redeem USDC; stablecoins are becoming more deeply embedded in traditional financial infrastructure.
3）The funding pressure on US spot BTC ETFs in June remains the core factor for pricing: CoinDesk reports that net outflows during the month were about $4.0 billion. Data from Farside and SoSoValue also shows net outflows over multiple days by month-end. Any rebound needs to first confirm that ETF fund flows have stopped the bleeding.
Conclusion: Today’s main storyline isn’t a single positive catalyst, but a structural repricing driven by “the compliance framework taking shape + stablecoin institutionalization + ETF funding pressure.” Chasing gains in the short term should wait for confirmation of fund flows.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1）UK FCA’s new crypto-asset regulatory framework enters the implementation phase: the application window is expected to open in September, with authorization applications due by the end of February 2027; the rules will take effect in October 2027. Capital, custody, and market-behavior requirements are clearer, and compliance barriers in Europe continue to rise.
2）BNY and Circle expand their partnership: USDC becomes the first stablecoin supported on BNY’s digital-asset custody platform. Institutional clients can custody, transfer, mint, and redeem USDC; stablecoins are becoming more deeply embedded in traditional financial infrastructure.
3）The funding pressure on US spot BTC ETFs in June remains the core factor for pricing: CoinDesk reports that net outflows during the month were about $4.0 billion. Data from Farside and SoSoValue also shows net outflows over multiple days by month-end. Any rebound needs to first confirm that ETF fund flows have stopped the bleeding.
Conclusion: Today’s main storyline isn’t a single positive catalyst, but a structural repricing driven by “the compliance framework taking shape + stablecoin institutionalization + ETF funding pressure.” Chasing gains in the short term should wait for confirmation of fund flows.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】The price is closing in on the long-term cost band, and qualifying conditions on the left side have appeared; today’s status label: staggered-buying zone. Bottom-fishing judgment: you can try in batches, but you cannot treat “approaching the cost line” as confirmation of a bottom. Total score: 80/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $59,261, below CoinMetrics’ derived 200WMA by about 5.0%; sentiment/leverage side FNG 12 (extreme fear), funding rate only +0.0005%/8h, and accessible only via OKX. On-chain/valuation side, MVRV-Z derived value 0.22 and Puell 0.76 are still in the cold zone. Data confidence: medium; real-time price from 2 sources available with disagreement of 0.056%. FNG and OKX funding are same-day data; CoinMetrics’ on-chain derivation latency of 2 days can be scored normally. CVDD / supply-profit / supply-loss are still old indicators—only shown, not used to lift the score. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; if the price dips near the lower edge of the cost band, add again; if it moves away, stop.
1) Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price first offered a low-risk trial window, but it is not a historically deep pit yet. btc-price $59,261, about 5.0% below 200WMA $62,386; MVRV-Z 0.22 and Puell 0.76 indicate valuation and miner income are both relatively cold. This sub-score: 43/50.
- Sentiment and leverage: The fear discount is very clear, and leverage is not crowded. FNG 12 (extreme fear); funding is mainly via OKX, and the latest settled value is +0.0005%/8h. It’s close to zero but not turned negative, so it earns a contrarian boost rather than a “market-wide capitulation” conclusion. This sub-score: 22/25.
- On-chain coin supply: The free derived indicator supports the left-side scenario; the old coin supply indicators are only background. CVDD data missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-09, and the latest available value is about $47,470. Supply-profit / supply-loss data missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-06, and the latest available values are 49.55% / 50.45%. If delayed more than 30 days, it does not participate in the core scoring. This sub-score: 15/25.
2) Execution suggestions
- First open: If you don’t have a base position, use only the planned allocation size (10%-20%) for the first entry. The goal is to obtain entry eligibility, not to bet on the absolute lowest point.
- Only add: If the price continues to贴近 or falls below the 200WMA, and FNG remains in the fear zone and funding does not switch to higher positive values, then add a second batch with the same or an even smaller share.
- Wait: If the price rebounds to above the 200WMA by 8%-10% and sentiment repairs quickly, stop adding; wait for a pullback or a new “undervaluation” signal at lower levels.
- Don’t chase: Don’t add when it急速 rallies in a single day. The advantage of the staggered-buying zone comes from the discount, not from chasing quick upside.
3) Invalidation conditions
- Downside trigger: If price breaks below $56,000 and FNG does not continue to stay cold, and if MVRV/Puell do not improve afterward, it indicates this is not a panic discount but a downward shift of the valuation anchor; downgrade the staggered plan to the waiting zone.
- Upside trigger: If price reclaims $67,500 and funding keeps turning to higher positive values while FNG moves out of the fear zone, today’s value-for-money is invalidated; stop left-side buying.
- Data trigger: If subsequent CoinMetrics revisions cause 200WMA, MVRV-Z, or Puell to clearly no longer support undervaluation, then downgrade this round’s 80/100 score.
【Conclusion】The price is closing in on the long-term cost band, and qualifying conditions on the left side have appeared; today’s status label: staggered-buying zone. Bottom-fishing judgment: you can try in batches, but you cannot treat “approaching the cost line” as confirmation of a bottom. Total score: 80/100. Three pieces of evidence: Price $59,261, below CoinMetrics’ derived 200WMA by about 5.0%; sentiment/leverage side FNG 12 (extreme fear), funding rate only +0.0005%/8h, and accessible only via OKX. On-chain/valuation side, MVRV-Z derived value 0.22 and Puell 0.76 are still in the cold zone. Data confidence: medium; real-time price from 2 sources available with disagreement of 0.056%. FNG and OKX funding are same-day data; CoinMetrics’ on-chain derivation latency of 2 days can be scored normally. CVDD / supply-profit / supply-loss are still old indicators—only shown, not used to lift the score. One-sentence action: Open a small position first; if the price dips near the lower edge of the cost band, add again; if it moves away, stop.
1) Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price first offered a low-risk trial window, but it is not a historically deep pit yet. btc-price $59,261, about 5.0% below 200WMA $62,386; MVRV-Z 0.22 and Puell 0.76 indicate valuation and miner income are both relatively cold. This sub-score: 43/50.
- Sentiment and leverage: The fear discount is very clear, and leverage is not crowded. FNG 12 (extreme fear); funding is mainly via OKX, and the latest settled value is +0.0005%/8h. It’s close to zero but not turned negative, so it earns a contrarian boost rather than a “market-wide capitulation” conclusion. This sub-score: 22/25.
- On-chain coin supply: The free derived indicator supports the left-side scenario; the old coin supply indicators are only background. CVDD data missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-09, and the latest available value is about $47,470. Supply-profit / supply-loss data missing/delayed; the most recently available date is 2026-04-06, and the latest available values are 49.55% / 50.45%. If delayed more than 30 days, it does not participate in the core scoring. This sub-score: 15/25.
2) Execution suggestions
- First open: If you don’t have a base position, use only the planned allocation size (10%-20%) for the first entry. The goal is to obtain entry eligibility, not to bet on the absolute lowest point.
- Only add: If the price continues to贴近 or falls below the 200WMA, and FNG remains in the fear zone and funding does not switch to higher positive values, then add a second batch with the same or an even smaller share.
- Wait: If the price rebounds to above the 200WMA by 8%-10% and sentiment repairs quickly, stop adding; wait for a pullback or a new “undervaluation” signal at lower levels.
- Don’t chase: Don’t add when it急速 rallies in a single day. The advantage of the staggered-buying zone comes from the discount, not from chasing quick upside.
3) Invalidation conditions
- Downside trigger: If price breaks below $56,000 and FNG does not continue to stay cold, and if MVRV/Puell do not improve afterward, it indicates this is not a panic discount but a downward shift of the valuation anchor; downgrade the staggered plan to the waiting zone.
- Upside trigger: If price reclaims $67,500 and funding keeps turning to higher positive values while FNG moves out of the fear zone, today’s value-for-money is invalidated; stop left-side buying.
- Data trigger: If subsequent CoinMetrics revisions cause 200WMA, MVRV-Z, or Puell to clearly no longer support undervaluation, then downgrade this round’s 80/100 score.
Today’s Crypto News
1）Bitcoin falls below $60,000, spot BTC ETFs remain under pressure: SoSoValue and Farside data show net outflows of about $696 million and $445 million on June 25 and 26 respectively, with liquidity still dominating as the main short-term variable.
2）BIS annual report once again warns of stablecoin risks: it believes the current stablecoin design still lacks the key attributes of money; if adopted on a large scale, it could affect bank funding, credit supply, and the monetary sovereignty of some economies.
3）After Base mainnet saw block production stall twice last week, it has been restored. The public status page shows the issue has been resolved. Media based on project post-mortems says the root cause involved a flaw in the sorter logic; L2 still needs to reprice the risk of a single-point sorter.
Conclusion: This is not a single negative catalyst; instead, it’s the resonance of ETF fund flows, the stablecoin regulatory narrative, and infrastructure risks. For a rebound, first watch whether ETF outflows slow, and whether BTC can reclaim and hold above $60,000.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1）Bitcoin falls below $60,000, spot BTC ETFs remain under pressure: SoSoValue and Farside data show net outflows of about $696 million and $445 million on June 25 and 26 respectively, with liquidity still dominating as the main short-term variable.
2）BIS annual report once again warns of stablecoin risks: it believes the current stablecoin design still lacks the key attributes of money; if adopted on a large scale, it could affect bank funding, credit supply, and the monetary sovereignty of some economies.
3）After Base mainnet saw block production stall twice last week, it has been restored. The public status page shows the issue has been resolved. Media based on project post-mortems says the root cause involved a flaw in the sorter logic; L2 still needs to reprice the risk of a single-point sorter.
Conclusion: This is not a single negative catalyst; instead, it’s the resonance of ETF fund flows, the stablecoin regulatory narrative, and infrastructure risks. For a rebound, first watch whether ETF outflows slow, and whether BTC can reclaim and hold above $60,000.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】The price is close to and slightly below the long-term cost line, which suggests “left-side” eligibility has appeared. What you truly need to guard against is turning trial-and-error into chasing speed. Today’s status tag: batch-buy zone. Total bottom-fishing score: 77/100. Three pieces of evidence are clear: (1) btc-price takes a multi-source median of $60,155, about 3.5% below CoinMetrics’ derived 200WMA; (2) FNG is 18 (extreme fear), but funding is still slightly positive—OKX is the main source—at +0.0040%/8h; (3) the MVRV-Z derived value is 0.22 and Puell is 0.70—on-chain valuation and miner revenue are both in the “low temperature” band. Data confidence: real-time price and FNG are available; funding comes from only one source (OKX), so it’s treated with medium confidence. CoinMetrics on-chain derivations are delayed by 2 days, so normal scoring is applied. CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are still old indicators—shown for reference only and not used to raise the total score. One-sentence action: start with a small position, add only if it gets cheaper or leverage cools further, and don’t chase the rebound.
1）Score Breakdown
Valuation temperature: The current price gives trial-and-error eligibility near the cost band, but it’s not a historical deep trough. Current price is $60,155; the 200WMA derived value is $62,358; the price is about 3.5% lower. MVRV-Z is about 0.22 and Puell is about 0.70, indicating valuation and miner revenue are both relatively cold—this is the main scoring boost.
Sentiment and leverage: Sentiment provides a discount, but leverage hasn’t fully confirmed across the market. FNG 18 (extreme fear) brings a contrarian boost. The funding composite can only be written as “mostly OKX” at +0.0040%/8h because only OKX is reachable; it’s close to zero but not turned negative, so the boost is conservative.
On-chain positions: Fresh indicators support the left-side entry; old position indicators only serve as background. CoinMetrics derived data is as of 2026-06-26, with a 2-day delay. CVDD has recently still used a historical reference of $47,470; supply-profit is 49.55% and supply-loss is 50.45%, with the most recently available date being 2026-04-06—so they don’t participate in core scoring.
2）Execution Suggestions
- Start with: open only 20%-30% of a planned position. Treat it as low-risk trial-and-error; do not assume a full-position decision.
- Add only if: if the price continues to stay close to or below the 200WMA, and FNG remains extremely fearful while funding turns negative or gets closer to zero, then add the second batch.
- Wait: if price drops toward the $55,000-$57,000 range, and MVRV/Puell don’t show clear deterioration, this becomes the next key observation level.
- Don’t chase: if price quickly snaps back above the 200WMA by 8%-10%, while sentiment simultaneously repairs, pause further adding and wait for a pullback.
- Stop: prefer spot over futures; don’t increase leverage. Today’s advantage is the discount, not a confirmed breakout.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- If the price breaks below $55,000 for consecutive sessions and FNG is no longer extreme fear while funding also doesn’t turn negative, it indicates this is not a panic-discount but a possible trend repricing—stop adding.
- If price rapidly rallies to 8%-10% above the 200WMA, while FNG repairs to neutral or above, the left-side value proposition fails—don’t chase.
- If the next round of CoinMetrics data shows MVRV-Z and Puell warming up quickly while price doesn’t pull back, the current 77 score should be downgraded.
【Conclusion】The price is close to and slightly below the long-term cost line, which suggests “left-side” eligibility has appeared. What you truly need to guard against is turning trial-and-error into chasing speed. Today’s status tag: batch-buy zone. Total bottom-fishing score: 77/100. Three pieces of evidence are clear: (1) btc-price takes a multi-source median of $60,155, about 3.5% below CoinMetrics’ derived 200WMA; (2) FNG is 18 (extreme fear), but funding is still slightly positive—OKX is the main source—at +0.0040%/8h; (3) the MVRV-Z derived value is 0.22 and Puell is 0.70—on-chain valuation and miner revenue are both in the “low temperature” band. Data confidence: real-time price and FNG are available; funding comes from only one source (OKX), so it’s treated with medium confidence. CoinMetrics on-chain derivations are delayed by 2 days, so normal scoring is applied. CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are still old indicators—shown for reference only and not used to raise the total score. One-sentence action: start with a small position, add only if it gets cheaper or leverage cools further, and don’t chase the rebound.
1）Score Breakdown
Valuation temperature: The current price gives trial-and-error eligibility near the cost band, but it’s not a historical deep trough. Current price is $60,155; the 200WMA derived value is $62,358; the price is about 3.5% lower. MVRV-Z is about 0.22 and Puell is about 0.70, indicating valuation and miner revenue are both relatively cold—this is the main scoring boost.
Sentiment and leverage: Sentiment provides a discount, but leverage hasn’t fully confirmed across the market. FNG 18 (extreme fear) brings a contrarian boost. The funding composite can only be written as “mostly OKX” at +0.0040%/8h because only OKX is reachable; it’s close to zero but not turned negative, so the boost is conservative.
On-chain positions: Fresh indicators support the left-side entry; old position indicators only serve as background. CoinMetrics derived data is as of 2026-06-26, with a 2-day delay. CVDD has recently still used a historical reference of $47,470; supply-profit is 49.55% and supply-loss is 50.45%, with the most recently available date being 2026-04-06—so they don’t participate in core scoring.
2）Execution Suggestions
- Start with: open only 20%-30% of a planned position. Treat it as low-risk trial-and-error; do not assume a full-position decision.
- Add only if: if the price continues to stay close to or below the 200WMA, and FNG remains extremely fearful while funding turns negative or gets closer to zero, then add the second batch.
- Wait: if price drops toward the $55,000-$57,000 range, and MVRV/Puell don’t show clear deterioration, this becomes the next key observation level.
- Don’t chase: if price quickly snaps back above the 200WMA by 8%-10%, while sentiment simultaneously repairs, pause further adding and wait for a pullback.
- Stop: prefer spot over futures; don’t increase leverage. Today’s advantage is the discount, not a confirmed breakout.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- If the price breaks below $55,000 for consecutive sessions and FNG is no longer extreme fear while funding also doesn’t turn negative, it indicates this is not a panic-discount but a possible trend repricing—stop adding.
- If price rapidly rallies to 8%-10% above the 200WMA, while FNG repairs to neutral or above, the left-side value proposition fails—don’t chase.
- If the next round of CoinMetrics data shows MVRV-Z and Puell warming up quickly while price doesn’t pull back, the current 77 score should be downgraded.
Today’s Crypto Headlines
1）US spot BTC ETF faces continued pressure: CNBC cited Mizuho saying that over the past 30 days, net outflows totaled about $6.4 billion. Farside data also shows consecutive net outflows from the 24th to the 26th, indicating that institutional risk appetite remains relatively cautious.
2）Polymarket marketing compliance controversy escalates: Two US senators, Curtis and Schiff, have sent a letter to the CFTC requesting clarification. The prediction market has shifted from a growth story to being repriced around regulatory boundaries.
3）SecondFi releases a recovery path after a Cardano wallet security incident: Media reports indicate roughly $2.4 million in assets were affected. The official FAQ instructs users to wait for formal steps; on-chain wallet and authorization risks still need to be prioritized for management.
Conclusion: The main theme today is not a single negative factor, but rather the simultaneous suppression of risk appetite by capital flows, compliance boundaries, and wallet security. In trading, it’s advisable to reduce chasing rallies and wait for signs that ETF flows or regulatory interpretations improve.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1）US spot BTC ETF faces continued pressure: CNBC cited Mizuho saying that over the past 30 days, net outflows totaled about $6.4 billion. Farside data also shows consecutive net outflows from the 24th to the 26th, indicating that institutional risk appetite remains relatively cautious.
2）Polymarket marketing compliance controversy escalates: Two US senators, Curtis and Schiff, have sent a letter to the CFTC requesting clarification. The prediction market has shifted from a growth story to being repriced around regulatory boundaries.
3）SecondFi releases a recovery path after a Cardano wallet security incident: Media reports indicate roughly $2.4 million in assets were affected. The official FAQ instructs users to wait for formal steps; on-chain wallet and authorization risks still need to be prioritized for management.
Conclusion: The main theme today is not a single negative factor, but rather the simultaneous suppression of risk appetite by capital flows, compliance boundaries, and wallet security. In trading, it’s advisable to reduce chasing rallies and wait for signs that ETF flows or regulatory interpretations improve.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily Report》
【Conclusion】Today is not about guessing the absolute low point. It’s about making a bounded, low-risk trial using long-term cost-basis bands. Today’s status tags: DCA-in zone (in tranches); total bottom-fishing score 87/100; price $59,930, still about 3.9% below the 200WMA $62,330—this puts you in a left-side entry eligibility area; sentiment 15 (extreme fear); funding is mainly from OKX, at +0.0041%/8h. Leverage isn’t hot, but it’s not universal market confirmation yet. On-chain valuation: mvrv-zscore is about 0.22 and puell is about 0.77—still cold. Data confidence: the market snapshot is medium; the real-time price/FNG/funding are today’s data; CoinMetrics-derived metrics are delayed by 2 days—normal scoring. CVDD and supply-profit/supply-loss remain old indicators; they’re listed only and do not add points. One-sentence action: first take in tranches—don’t chase a fast rally; keep adding only near the cost band, while fear hasn’t been repaired and leverage isn’t heating up.
1）Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: price has already returned below the long-term cost band, so left-side eligibility holds, but it’s not a historical deep-water discount. btc-price $59,930; 200WMA $62,330, current price is about 3.9% lower; mvrv-zscore 0.22 and puell 0.77—valuation and miner revenue are still relatively cold. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-09, old value $47,470; current price is about 26.2% higher—only for historical reference.
- Sentiment and leverage: fear continues to provide the discount, and the derivatives market does not show obvious crowding. fng 15 (extreme fear); funding composite current source_count=1, meaning only OKX is available; the latest settled value is +0.0041%/8h—so this can only be treated as an OKX-dominant funding-rate signal.
- On-chain positioning: the free derivation supports taking in tranches; older supply indicators can’t boost the score. CoinMetrics Community’s derived mvrv-zscore is 0.22 and puell is 0.77; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; most recent available date is 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%—not included in the core scoring.
2）Execution recommendations
- Open first: since you don’t have a base position, use a planned allocation of 20%-30% for the first spot tranches; don’t use high leverage.
- Only add: if price remains below or near the 200WMA, and fng stays at extreme fear while funding doesn’t show a clear heat-up, then add a second tranche.
- Wait: if after a drop the cost band can’t be regained quickly, first wait for continued on-chain coldness and sentiment confirmation—don’t mechanically average down.
- Stop: if price rapidly moves away from the 200WMA and sentiment repairs to neutral or above, reduce back from the tranche zone to the waiting zone.
- Don’t chase: if funding rates rise while price is only bouncing due to sentiment, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chase position.
3）Invalidation conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price remains below 200WMA and fng is no longer fearful, while funding instead rises—pause any additional buys.
- Chasing trigger: price quickly returns above the 200WMA and pulls away by a meaningful margin; fng repairs to neutral or above—this closes the low-risk trial window.
- Data trigger: once CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are filled in later, if they don’t support the idea of reduced supply pressure, downgrade the 87 score and step down the position-taking cadence.
【Conclusion】Today is not about guessing the absolute low point. It’s about making a bounded, low-risk trial using long-term cost-basis bands. Today’s status tags: DCA-in zone (in tranches); total bottom-fishing score 87/100; price $59,930, still about 3.9% below the 200WMA $62,330—this puts you in a left-side entry eligibility area; sentiment 15 (extreme fear); funding is mainly from OKX, at +0.0041%/8h. Leverage isn’t hot, but it’s not universal market confirmation yet. On-chain valuation: mvrv-zscore is about 0.22 and puell is about 0.77—still cold. Data confidence: the market snapshot is medium; the real-time price/FNG/funding are today’s data; CoinMetrics-derived metrics are delayed by 2 days—normal scoring. CVDD and supply-profit/supply-loss remain old indicators; they’re listed only and do not add points. One-sentence action: first take in tranches—don’t chase a fast rally; keep adding only near the cost band, while fear hasn’t been repaired and leverage isn’t heating up.
1）Score breakdown
- Valuation temperature: price has already returned below the long-term cost band, so left-side eligibility holds, but it’s not a historical deep-water discount. btc-price $59,930; 200WMA $62,330, current price is about 3.9% lower; mvrv-zscore 0.22 and puell 0.77—valuation and miner revenue are still relatively cold. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-09, old value $47,470; current price is about 26.2% higher—only for historical reference.
- Sentiment and leverage: fear continues to provide the discount, and the derivatives market does not show obvious crowding. fng 15 (extreme fear); funding composite current source_count=1, meaning only OKX is available; the latest settled value is +0.0041%/8h—so this can only be treated as an OKX-dominant funding-rate signal.
- On-chain positioning: the free derivation supports taking in tranches; older supply indicators can’t boost the score. CoinMetrics Community’s derived mvrv-zscore is 0.22 and puell is 0.77; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; most recent available date is 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%—not included in the core scoring.
2）Execution recommendations
- Open first: since you don’t have a base position, use a planned allocation of 20%-30% for the first spot tranches; don’t use high leverage.
- Only add: if price remains below or near the 200WMA, and fng stays at extreme fear while funding doesn’t show a clear heat-up, then add a second tranche.
- Wait: if after a drop the cost band can’t be regained quickly, first wait for continued on-chain coldness and sentiment confirmation—don’t mechanically average down.
- Stop: if price rapidly moves away from the 200WMA and sentiment repairs to neutral or above, reduce back from the tranche zone to the waiting zone.
- Don’t chase: if funding rates rise while price is only bouncing due to sentiment, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chase position.
3）Invalidation conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price remains below 200WMA and fng is no longer fearful, while funding instead rises—pause any additional buys.
- Chasing trigger: price quickly returns above the 200WMA and pulls away by a meaningful margin; fng repairs to neutral or above—this closes the low-risk trial window.
- Data trigger: once CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are filled in later, if they don’t support the idea of reduced supply pressure, downgrade the 87 score and step down the position-taking cadence.
Today’s Crypto News
1) BTC repeatedly fights around the $60,000 level. Both CoinDesk and Cointelegraph point to pressure from tech stocks, ETF fund flows, and derivatives signals still weighing on risk appetite. Local rebounds in AAVE, SOL, and others look more like structural rotation.
2) The SEC and CFTC have issued a joint call for comments to study how to coordinate multi-asset margin frameworks for securities, swaps, and futures. This is good for long-term capital efficiency, but it also shows that U.S. crypto derivatives regulation is still being reshaped.
3) The Base mainnet saw block production stall again within two days. The official status page says it has been restored and asks nodes to restart. As L2 enters an upgrade phase, infrastructure reliability remains a key variable for trading and cross-chain risk.
Conclusion: Today is not a broad risk-on day, but an event-driven tape of “BTC holding $60k + regulator re-pricing + L2 stability tests.” When chasing a rebound, keep position sizing under control.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1) BTC repeatedly fights around the $60,000 level. Both CoinDesk and Cointelegraph point to pressure from tech stocks, ETF fund flows, and derivatives signals still weighing on risk appetite. Local rebounds in AAVE, SOL, and others look more like structural rotation.
2) The SEC and CFTC have issued a joint call for comments to study how to coordinate multi-asset margin frameworks for securities, swaps, and futures. This is good for long-term capital efficiency, but it also shows that U.S. crypto derivatives regulation is still being reshaped.
3) The Base mainnet saw block production stall again within two days. The official status page says it has been restored and asks nodes to restart. As L2 enters an upgrade phase, infrastructure reliability remains a key variable for trading and cross-chain risk.
Conclusion: Today is not a broad risk-on day, but an event-driven tape of “BTC holding $60k + regulator re-pricing + L2 stability tests.” When chasing a rebound, keep position sizing under control.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about exchanging long-term cost basis for a low-risk trial-and-error entry. Current status label: staggered-buy zone. Bottom-fishing total score: 88/100. Price is $59,296, about a 4.8% discount versus the 200WMA at $62,302; the price has already moved below the long-term cost band. Sentiment is 13 (extreme fear). Funding rate is mainly from OKX: +0.0001%/8h; the leveraged side isn’t crowded, but there isn’t full-market confirmation. On-chain valuation: MVRV z-score is about 0.25 and Puell is about 0.71—still relatively cold. Data confidence: market snapshot is medium; real-time price/FNG are today’s data. CoinMetrics derivation delay of 2 days can be scored normally. CVDD and supply profit/loss are old indicators—shown for reference only, without adding points. One-sentence action: take a small-position test first; afterward, only add in batches according to pullbacks, persistently cold sentiment, and on-chain confirmation of low temperatures.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: Price already gives entry qualification, but it’s not “history-level deep water.” btc-price $59,296; 200WMA $62,302—current price is about 4.8% lower. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-09. The old value is $47,470; current price is about 24.9% higher. Use it only for historical reference.
- Sentiment & leverage: The discount comes from extreme fear; the futures side hasn’t warmed up yet. FNG is 13 (extreme fear). Funding composite: currently only OKX is available; the latest settled rate is about +0.0001%/8h, near zero, so it can’t be written as an all-market funding-rate signal.
- On-chain supply/demand (cohorts): Valuation proxy supports left-side trial-and-error, but supply data hasn’t been updated—positions must be restrained. CoinMetrics community derived mvrv-zscore 0.25 and puell 0.71. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-06. The old values are 49.55% / 50.45%; they don’t participate in core scoring.
2) Execution Suggestions
- Open first: If you have no core position, only plan a 20%-30% allocation. Prefer spot; don’t use high leverage.
- Only add if: Price continues to stay near or below the 200WMA, and FNG remains extremely fearful while funding isn’t clearly turning hot—then add the second batch.
- Wait if: If BTC rapidly breaks below and can’t reclaim the 200WMA, wait for on-chain coldness and sentiment confirmation; don’t rush to average down.
- Stop if: If price sharply rallies and moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes—drop back from the staggered-buy zone to the waiting zone.
- Don’t chase: If sentiment repairs to neutral or above and funding rises in sync, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a momentum-chasing trade.
3) Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price stays below the 200WMA, and FNG doesn’t show further fear while funding actually rises—pause further adds.
- Chasing trigger: Price rapidly returns to a far distance above the 200WMA; FNG repairs to neutral or above; risk-reward deteriorates—switch back to the waiting zone.
- Data trigger: After CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are updated, if they don’t support supply-pressure, on-chain bonus points will be downgraded and the position-adding cadence should step down.
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about exchanging long-term cost basis for a low-risk trial-and-error entry. Current status label: staggered-buy zone. Bottom-fishing total score: 88/100. Price is $59,296, about a 4.8% discount versus the 200WMA at $62,302; the price has already moved below the long-term cost band. Sentiment is 13 (extreme fear). Funding rate is mainly from OKX: +0.0001%/8h; the leveraged side isn’t crowded, but there isn’t full-market confirmation. On-chain valuation: MVRV z-score is about 0.25 and Puell is about 0.71—still relatively cold. Data confidence: market snapshot is medium; real-time price/FNG are today’s data. CoinMetrics derivation delay of 2 days can be scored normally. CVDD and supply profit/loss are old indicators—shown for reference only, without adding points. One-sentence action: take a small-position test first; afterward, only add in batches according to pullbacks, persistently cold sentiment, and on-chain confirmation of low temperatures.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: Price already gives entry qualification, but it’s not “history-level deep water.” btc-price $59,296; 200WMA $62,302—current price is about 4.8% lower. CVDD data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-09. The old value is $47,470; current price is about 24.9% higher. Use it only for historical reference.
- Sentiment & leverage: The discount comes from extreme fear; the futures side hasn’t warmed up yet. FNG is 13 (extreme fear). Funding composite: currently only OKX is available; the latest settled rate is about +0.0001%/8h, near zero, so it can’t be written as an all-market funding-rate signal.
- On-chain supply/demand (cohorts): Valuation proxy supports left-side trial-and-error, but supply data hasn’t been updated—positions must be restrained. CoinMetrics community derived mvrv-zscore 0.25 and puell 0.71. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed; the most recent available date is 2026-04-06. The old values are 49.55% / 50.45%; they don’t participate in core scoring.
2) Execution Suggestions
- Open first: If you have no core position, only plan a 20%-30% allocation. Prefer spot; don’t use high leverage.
- Only add if: Price continues to stay near or below the 200WMA, and FNG remains extremely fearful while funding isn’t clearly turning hot—then add the second batch.
- Wait if: If BTC rapidly breaks below and can’t reclaim the 200WMA, wait for on-chain coldness and sentiment confirmation; don’t rush to average down.
- Stop if: If price sharply rallies and moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes—drop back from the staggered-buy zone to the waiting zone.
- Don’t chase: If sentiment repairs to neutral or above and funding rises in sync, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a momentum-chasing trade.
3) Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price stays below the 200WMA, and FNG doesn’t show further fear while funding actually rises—pause further adds.
- Chasing trigger: Price rapidly returns to a far distance above the 200WMA; FNG repairs to neutral or above; risk-reward deteriorates—switch back to the waiting zone.
- Data trigger: After CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss are updated, if they don’t support supply-pressure, on-chain bonus points will be downgraded and the position-adding cadence should step down.
Today’s Crypto Headlines
1）BTC once returned to around $58,000. Spot ETF fund pressures, monthly options positioning bearish, and the diversion effect from U.S. stocks all suppress risk appetite. If price continues to dip in the short term, crowded derivatives shorts may further amplify any rebound.
2）The Base mainnet incubated by Coinbase experienced a block-production interruption of about two hours. The official status page says the issue is related to anomalous blocks/consensus, indicating that the operational stability of leading L2s is still part of how capital is priced.
3）Invesco has filed to launch an on-chain money market fund aimed at stablecoin reserves. Traditional asset managers continue to compete for the infrastructure-track of “stablecoin reserve management.”
Conclusion: The main storyline today isn’t a single-point positive catalyst. Instead, the market is reassessing—at lower levels—the flow of funds, on-chain operational risks, and the long-term opportunities in institutionalized infrastructure.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1）BTC once returned to around $58,000. Spot ETF fund pressures, monthly options positioning bearish, and the diversion effect from U.S. stocks all suppress risk appetite. If price continues to dip in the short term, crowded derivatives shorts may further amplify any rebound.
2）The Base mainnet incubated by Coinbase experienced a block-production interruption of about two hours. The official status page says the issue is related to anomalous blocks/consensus, indicating that the operational stability of leading L2s is still part of how capital is priced.
3）Invesco has filed to launch an on-chain money market fund aimed at stablecoin reserves. Traditional asset managers continue to compete for the infrastructure-track of “stablecoin reserve management.”
Conclusion: The main storyline today isn’t a single-point positive catalyst. Instead, the market is reassessing—at lower levels—the flow of funds, on-chain operational risks, and the long-term opportunities in institutionalized infrastructure.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
Today's Crypto Headlines
1) BTC briefly approached $59,000 as the dollar strengthens, with ongoing outflows from spot BTC ETFs/ETPs and AI trading diverting risk capital, the market is still shifting from an 'inflation hedge' narrative to pricing under liquidity pressure.
2) Binance withdraws its MiCA application in Greece, stating it will pivot to another EU member and maintain its European commitments; ESMA also reminds unauthorized service providers to orderly exit after the transition period ends, while compliance thresholds for European exchanges continue to rise.
3) The Cardano wallet SecondFi faced a security incident due to issues with address/wallet generation, affecting approximately 16 million ADA, with the team reporting emergency protection for about 129 million ADA; industry data also shows the number of security incidents remained high in Q2, with cross-chain bridges still being a major risk source.
Conclusion: Today's main themes are 'macro pressure on valuations, compliance pressure on exchanges, and security pressure on DeFi'; short-term rebounds will first need to see capital flow and risk events cool down.
#BTC #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #DeFi
1) BTC briefly approached $59,000 as the dollar strengthens, with ongoing outflows from spot BTC ETFs/ETPs and AI trading diverting risk capital, the market is still shifting from an 'inflation hedge' narrative to pricing under liquidity pressure.
2) Binance withdraws its MiCA application in Greece, stating it will pivot to another EU member and maintain its European commitments; ESMA also reminds unauthorized service providers to orderly exit after the transition period ends, while compliance thresholds for European exchanges continue to rise.
3) The Cardano wallet SecondFi faced a security incident due to issues with address/wallet generation, affecting approximately 16 million ADA, with the team reporting emergency protection for about 129 million ADA; industry data also shows the number of security incidents remained high in Q2, with cross-chain bridges still being a major risk source.
Conclusion: Today's main themes are 'macro pressure on valuations, compliance pressure on exchanges, and security pressure on DeFi'; short-term rebounds will first need to see capital flow and risk events cool down.
#BTC #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare #DeFi
《BTC Bottom Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】Today isn't a high-probability FOMO day; it's a disciplined day for accumulating positions close to long-term cost levels. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing total score 90/100; price $60,771, approximately 2.4% discount relative to 200WMA $62,274, position is already close to long-term cost band; sentiment 12 (extreme fear), funding -0.0046%/8h, funding rate turned negative, which adds some reverse points on the contract side; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.31, puell around 0.82, still leaning cold. Action in a nutshell: open planned position 20%-30% first, prioritize spot, and only add in batches based on pullbacks and cold sentiment confirmation.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: The price has already given the left-side entry qualification, but CVDD hasn't confirmed historical deep-water discounts. Evidence: btc-price $60,771, 24h -3.37%; 200WMA $62,274, current price is about 2.4% lower than this; CVDD data is missing/delayed, most recent available date 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 28.0% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: Today's discount mainly comes from cold sentiment and an uncongested contract side, not from trend confirmation. Evidence: fng 12 (extreme fear), sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone, reverse discount is clear; latest settled funding is -0.0046%/8h.
- On-chain Chips: Valuation proxies continue to support low-level trial and error, but supply gains/losses have no new data, positions cannot be fully loaded. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.31, puell 0.82; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed, most recent available date 2026-04-06, old value 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Recommendations
- Open First: No base position, only open planned position 20%-30%, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Add Only: If the price pulls back or continues to approach 200WMA, and fng maintains fear, funding doesn’t heat up, then add a second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below 200WMA and quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore / puell remain cold, the batch rhythm can shift from slow to moderate.
- Stop: If the price quickly moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t Chase: On a single-day sharp rise, if sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises simultaneously, don’t turn the bottom fishing position into a FOMO position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break Trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below 200WMA, and if fng doesn’t continue to cool down, funding actually strengthens, pause on adding positions.
- FOMO Trigger: Price quickly rises significantly above 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding rises simultaneously, accumulation zone invalidates, revert to waiting zone.
- Data Trigger: Subsequent completed CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss if they don’t support chip pressure, on-chain points downgraded, position rhythm lowered.
【Conclusion】Today isn't a high-probability FOMO day; it's a disciplined day for accumulating positions close to long-term cost levels. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing total score 90/100; price $60,771, approximately 2.4% discount relative to 200WMA $62,274, position is already close to long-term cost band; sentiment 12 (extreme fear), funding -0.0046%/8h, funding rate turned negative, which adds some reverse points on the contract side; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.31, puell around 0.82, still leaning cold. Action in a nutshell: open planned position 20%-30% first, prioritize spot, and only add in batches based on pullbacks and cold sentiment confirmation.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: The price has already given the left-side entry qualification, but CVDD hasn't confirmed historical deep-water discounts. Evidence: btc-price $60,771, 24h -3.37%; 200WMA $62,274, current price is about 2.4% lower than this; CVDD data is missing/delayed, most recent available date 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 28.0% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: Today's discount mainly comes from cold sentiment and an uncongested contract side, not from trend confirmation. Evidence: fng 12 (extreme fear), sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone, reverse discount is clear; latest settled funding is -0.0046%/8h.
- On-chain Chips: Valuation proxies continue to support low-level trial and error, but supply gains/losses have no new data, positions cannot be fully loaded. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.31, puell 0.82; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed, most recent available date 2026-04-06, old value 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Recommendations
- Open First: No base position, only open planned position 20%-30%, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Add Only: If the price pulls back or continues to approach 200WMA, and fng maintains fear, funding doesn’t heat up, then add a second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below 200WMA and quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore / puell remain cold, the batch rhythm can shift from slow to moderate.
- Stop: If the price quickly moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t Chase: On a single-day sharp rise, if sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises simultaneously, don’t turn the bottom fishing position into a FOMO position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break Trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below 200WMA, and if fng doesn’t continue to cool down, funding actually strengthens, pause on adding positions.
- FOMO Trigger: Price quickly rises significantly above 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding rises simultaneously, accumulation zone invalidates, revert to waiting zone.
- Data Trigger: Subsequent completed CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss if they don’t support chip pressure, on-chain points downgraded, position rhythm lowered.
Today's Crypto Headlines
1) BTC continues to feel the pressure around $62,000: Several media outlets point to consistent outflows from spot ETFs over the past few weeks, hawkish Fed expectations, and the upcoming options expiry at the end of the month, limiting short-term rebounds due to liquidity constraints.
2) U.S. derivatives regulation is heating up: CFTC Chairman states that the crypto perpetual contract model isn't suitable for all assets; Cboe is also reported to be evaluating BTC/ETH perpetual products; the prediction market and perpetual contracts are becoming compliance focal points.
3) On-chain security risks are rising: Cointelegraph cites DefiLlama data indicating 83 security incidents in Q2, with the Taiko bridge event resulting in about $1.7 million in losses; cross-chain bridges remain a major weak spot.
Conclusion: Today’s main theme isn't a single bullish signal, but rather the interaction of capital flows, regulatory frameworks, and on-chain security, all simultaneously suppressing risk appetite, suggesting a conservative positioning is still advisable.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1) BTC continues to feel the pressure around $62,000: Several media outlets point to consistent outflows from spot ETFs over the past few weeks, hawkish Fed expectations, and the upcoming options expiry at the end of the month, limiting short-term rebounds due to liquidity constraints.
2) U.S. derivatives regulation is heating up: CFTC Chairman states that the crypto perpetual contract model isn't suitable for all assets; Cboe is also reported to be evaluating BTC/ETH perpetual products; the prediction market and perpetual contracts are becoming compliance focal points.
3) On-chain security risks are rising: Cointelegraph cites DefiLlama data indicating 83 security incidents in Q2, with the Taiko bridge event resulting in about $1.7 million in losses; cross-chain bridges remain a major weak spot.
Conclusion: Today’s main theme isn't a single bullish signal, but rather the interaction of capital flows, regulatory frameworks, and on-chain security, all simultaneously suppressing risk appetite, suggesting a conservative positioning is still advisable.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】Price is close to the long-term cost line, qualifying for entry on the left side; the real risk is chasing the pump, not missing out. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing score 87/100; price $62,920, a premium of about 1.1% compared to the 200WMA $62,245, still near the long-term cost band; sentiment 17 (extreme fear), funding +0.0026%/8h, leverage shows no significant overheating; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.35, puell about 0.75, still leaning cold. Action in a nutshell: open a planned position of 20%-30% first, only trade spot or low leverage, then scale in as pullbacks and sentiment confirm.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: Price has provided an entry qualification, but it’s not extremely cheap yet. Evidence: btc-price $62,920, 200WMA $62,245, a premium of about 1.1%; CVDD data is missing/delayed, the latest available date is 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 32.5% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: The discount arises from cold sentiment, not a crowded long position. Evidence: fng 17 (extreme fear), sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, the discount comes from panic; funding rate is close to the zero axis, leverage is not crowded yet, latest settled funding is +0.0026%/8h.
- On-Chain Chips: Valuation proxies support low-position trial and error, but supply profit-loss confirmation is still missing today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.35, puell 0.75; supply-profit/supply-loss data is missing/delayed, the latest available date is 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Suggestions
- Initially open: If you don’t have a base position, just enter with a small proportion as planned, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Only add: If price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng stays in the fear zone, funding doesn’t heat up, then add the second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below the 200WMA but quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore/puell continues to lean cold, the scaling pace can shift from slow to medium.
- Stop: If price pulls away from the cost band, the low-risk trial and error window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sharp single-day pump, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises simultaneously, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chasing position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below the 200WMA, and fng doesn’t continue to cool down, funding actually strengthens, pause adding positions.
- Chasing trigger: Price rapidly rises significantly above the 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding rises simultaneously, accumulation zone becomes invalid, revert to waiting zone.
- Data trigger: If subsequent CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss data do not support chip pressure, on-chain scores downgrade, position rhythm is downgraded.
【Conclusion】Price is close to the long-term cost line, qualifying for entry on the left side; the real risk is chasing the pump, not missing out. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing score 87/100; price $62,920, a premium of about 1.1% compared to the 200WMA $62,245, still near the long-term cost band; sentiment 17 (extreme fear), funding +0.0026%/8h, leverage shows no significant overheating; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.35, puell about 0.75, still leaning cold. Action in a nutshell: open a planned position of 20%-30% first, only trade spot or low leverage, then scale in as pullbacks and sentiment confirm.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: Price has provided an entry qualification, but it’s not extremely cheap yet. Evidence: btc-price $62,920, 200WMA $62,245, a premium of about 1.1%; CVDD data is missing/delayed, the latest available date is 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 32.5% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: The discount arises from cold sentiment, not a crowded long position. Evidence: fng 17 (extreme fear), sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, the discount comes from panic; funding rate is close to the zero axis, leverage is not crowded yet, latest settled funding is +0.0026%/8h.
- On-Chain Chips: Valuation proxies support low-position trial and error, but supply profit-loss confirmation is still missing today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.35, puell 0.75; supply-profit/supply-loss data is missing/delayed, the latest available date is 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Suggestions
- Initially open: If you don’t have a base position, just enter with a small proportion as planned, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Only add: If price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng stays in the fear zone, funding doesn’t heat up, then add the second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below the 200WMA but quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore/puell continues to lean cold, the scaling pace can shift from slow to medium.
- Stop: If price pulls away from the cost band, the low-risk trial and error window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sharp single-day pump, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises simultaneously, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chasing position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below the 200WMA, and fng doesn’t continue to cool down, funding actually strengthens, pause adding positions.
- Chasing trigger: Price rapidly rises significantly above the 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding rises simultaneously, accumulation zone becomes invalid, revert to waiting zone.
- Data trigger: If subsequent CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss data do not support chip pressure, on-chain scores downgrade, position rhythm is downgraded.
Today’s Crypto News
1) Taiko's cross-chain bridge has encountered a security incident, and the project team is urging users to withdraw assets from the bridge. Multiple security firms and media estimate the impact to be around $1.7 million; bridges and proof mechanisms remain a focal point for L2 risks.
2) ICE and OKX are pushing forward with a joint venture that connects traditional exchange markets, crypto derivatives, and tokenized stocks; RWA/tokenized securities are transitioning from concept to infrastructure competition.
3) The U.S. Senate has passed a housing bill that includes a four-year restriction on the Fed's CBDC, while UK stablecoin regulations are shifting from personal holdings limits to issuance caps; regulatory directions in major markets continue to diverge.
Conclusion: Short-term markets are still influenced by macro and security risks, but institutional entry and the long-term narrative of tokenized assets remain strong.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1) Taiko's cross-chain bridge has encountered a security incident, and the project team is urging users to withdraw assets from the bridge. Multiple security firms and media estimate the impact to be around $1.7 million; bridges and proof mechanisms remain a focal point for L2 risks.
2) ICE and OKX are pushing forward with a joint venture that connects traditional exchange markets, crypto derivatives, and tokenized stocks; RWA/tokenized securities are transitioning from concept to infrastructure competition.
3) The U.S. Senate has passed a housing bill that includes a four-year restriction on the Fed's CBDC, while UK stablecoin regulations are shifting from personal holdings limits to issuance caps; regulatory directions in major markets continue to diverge.
Conclusion: Short-term markets are still influenced by macro and security risks, but institutional entry and the long-term narrative of tokenized assets remain strong.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily Report》
【Conclusion】The price is close to the long-term cost line, and a left-side entry opportunity has appeared. The real risk is chasing quickly, not missing out. Today’s status label: staged-entry zone. Total score for bottom-fishing: 90/100. Price $64,046, at a premium of about 2.9% versus the 200WMA ($62,214). The position is still near the long-term cost band. Sentiment 23 (extreme fear), funding +0.0049%/8h. Leverage is not showing obvious overheating. On-chain valuation: mvrv-zscore around 0.33, puell around 0.64—still relatively cold. One-line action: Open a planned position of 20%-30% first, only do spot or low leverage; then add in batches based on pullbacks and sentiment confirmation.
1）Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price offers entry qualification, but it’s not extremely cheap yet. Evidence: btc-price $64,046, 200WMA $62,214, premium about 2.9%; CVDD data is missing/delayed. The most recently available date is 2026-04-09, with the old value $47,470—current price is about 34.9% higher.
- Sentiment and leverage: The discount comes from cold sentiment, not crowded longs. Evidence: fng 23 (extreme fear). Sentiment is in the extreme fear zone; the discount is driven by panic. Funding rate is close to the zero line, and leverage isn’t crowded. The latest settled funding is +0.0049%/8h.
- On-chain supply/holdings: Valuation proxies support low-level trial and error, but the confirmation of supply profit/loss is still missing today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.33 and puell 0.64. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed. The most recently available date is 2026-04-06, with the old value 49.55% / 50.45%.
2）Execution Suggestions
- Open first: If you don’t have a baseline position, enter in a small planned proportion only; spot first, no high leverage.
- Only add: If the price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t heat up, add a second batch.
- Wait: If after breaking below the 200WMA it can quickly reclaim it, and mvrv-zscore / puell continue to stay on the cold side, the batch cadence can shift from slow to medium speed.
- Stop: If the price first moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes—wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sudden daily surge, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding simultaneously rises, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chase-long position.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: If btc-price effectively drops below the 200WMA, and fng does not continue to cool while funding instead strengthens, pause adding.
- Chasing trigger: If the price rapidly rallies to clearly above the 200WMA, fng repairs to above neutral, and funding rises in sync, the staged-entry zone becomes invalid—switch back to waiting.
- Data trigger: If the later completed CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss do not support valuation-related supply pressure, the on-chain score is adjusted downward, and the position-taking cadence should be stepped down.
【Conclusion】The price is close to the long-term cost line, and a left-side entry opportunity has appeared. The real risk is chasing quickly, not missing out. Today’s status label: staged-entry zone. Total score for bottom-fishing: 90/100. Price $64,046, at a premium of about 2.9% versus the 200WMA ($62,214). The position is still near the long-term cost band. Sentiment 23 (extreme fear), funding +0.0049%/8h. Leverage is not showing obvious overheating. On-chain valuation: mvrv-zscore around 0.33, puell around 0.64—still relatively cold. One-line action: Open a planned position of 20%-30% first, only do spot or low leverage; then add in batches based on pullbacks and sentiment confirmation.
1）Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price offers entry qualification, but it’s not extremely cheap yet. Evidence: btc-price $64,046, 200WMA $62,214, premium about 2.9%; CVDD data is missing/delayed. The most recently available date is 2026-04-09, with the old value $47,470—current price is about 34.9% higher.
- Sentiment and leverage: The discount comes from cold sentiment, not crowded longs. Evidence: fng 23 (extreme fear). Sentiment is in the extreme fear zone; the discount is driven by panic. Funding rate is close to the zero line, and leverage isn’t crowded. The latest settled funding is +0.0049%/8h.
- On-chain supply/holdings: Valuation proxies support low-level trial and error, but the confirmation of supply profit/loss is still missing today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community derived mvrv-zscore 0.33 and puell 0.64. Supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed. The most recently available date is 2026-04-06, with the old value 49.55% / 50.45%.
2）Execution Suggestions
- Open first: If you don’t have a baseline position, enter in a small planned proportion only; spot first, no high leverage.
- Only add: If the price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t heat up, add a second batch.
- Wait: If after breaking below the 200WMA it can quickly reclaim it, and mvrv-zscore / puell continue to stay on the cold side, the batch cadence can shift from slow to medium speed.
- Stop: If the price first moves away from the cost band, the low-risk trial window closes—wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sudden daily surge, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding simultaneously rises, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chase-long position.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: If btc-price effectively drops below the 200WMA, and fng does not continue to cool while funding instead strengthens, pause adding.
- Chasing trigger: If the price rapidly rallies to clearly above the 200WMA, fng repairs to above neutral, and funding rises in sync, the staged-entry zone becomes invalid—switch back to waiting.
- Data trigger: If the later completed CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss do not support valuation-related supply pressure, the on-chain score is adjusted downward, and the position-taking cadence should be stepped down.
Today's Crypto News
1) U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Faces Temporary Capital Pressure: According to Cointelegraph citing data from Galaxy Research, there has been a net outflow of about $6.35 billion over the past 30 trading days; Farside and SoSoValue data also show several days of net outflows recently, indicating that institutional risk appetite remains cautious.
2) U.S. Crypto Derivatives and Prediction Markets Compliance Continues to Heat Up: The ongoing controversy regarding CME and CFTC/Kalshi’s perpetual contracts has caught market attention, and Polymarket's marketing transparency issues are also being tracked by the media, with the compliance boundaries of trading platforms being reassessed.
3) On-chain security remains a short-term risk factor: The Jaredfromsubway.eth MEV bot was exploited, resulting in a loss of about $7.5 million, with multiple media outlets pointing to risks associated with automated execution and authorization logic, reminding that DeFi yield strategies should not focus solely on yield rates.
Conclusion: Today’s main themes are not isolated positive news but rather the simultaneous impact of ETF funding, regulatory boundaries, and on-chain security pressure lines on market sentiment. It’s more suitable for short-term traders to control leverage and wait for capital flows to stabilize.
#BTC #ETF #DeFi #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1) U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETF Faces Temporary Capital Pressure: According to Cointelegraph citing data from Galaxy Research, there has been a net outflow of about $6.35 billion over the past 30 trading days; Farside and SoSoValue data also show several days of net outflows recently, indicating that institutional risk appetite remains cautious.
2) U.S. Crypto Derivatives and Prediction Markets Compliance Continues to Heat Up: The ongoing controversy regarding CME and CFTC/Kalshi’s perpetual contracts has caught market attention, and Polymarket's marketing transparency issues are also being tracked by the media, with the compliance boundaries of trading platforms being reassessed.
3) On-chain security remains a short-term risk factor: The Jaredfromsubway.eth MEV bot was exploited, resulting in a loss of about $7.5 million, with multiple media outlets pointing to risks associated with automated execution and authorization logic, reminding that DeFi yield strategies should not focus solely on yield rates.
Conclusion: Today’s main themes are not isolated positive news but rather the simultaneous impact of ETF funding, regulatory boundaries, and on-chain security pressure lines on market sentiment. It’s more suitable for short-term traders to control leverage and wait for capital flows to stabilize.
#BTC #ETF #DeFi #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom Fishing Daily》
【Conclusion】Price is close to the long-term cost line, left-side qualification appears; the real risk is chasing the pump, not missing out. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing total score 90/100; price $63,847, approximately 2.7% premium relative to the 200WMA $62,184, still near the long-term cost band; sentiment 20 (extreme fear), funding -0.0029%/8h, no obvious over-leverage; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.36, puell around 0.75, still relatively cold. Action in one sentence: open planned position 20%-30%, only spot or low leverage, and then accumulate in batches according to pullbacks and sentiment confirmations.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: The price has given entry qualification, but it's not extremely cheap yet. Evidence is btc-price $63,847, 200WMA $62,184, about 2.7% premium; CVDD data missing/delayed, latest available date 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 34.5% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: The discount comes from cold sentiment, not a crowded bullish market. Evidence is fng 20 (extreme fear), sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, the discount comes from panic; funding rate turns negative, short premium gives a little contrarian bias to the left side, latest settled funding is -0.0029%/8h.
- On-chain Chips: Valuation proxies support low-level trial and error, but supply profit and loss confirmation still lacks today's data. Evidence is CoinMetrics Community-derived mvrv-zscore 0.36, puell 0.75; supply-profit/supply-loss data missing/delayed, latest available date 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Suggestions
- First Open: If there’s no base position, enter with a small percentage according to plan, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Just Add: If the price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng is still in the fear zone, funding not heating up, then add the second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below the 200WMA but quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore/puell continues to remain cold, the pacing can shift from slow to medium.
- Stop: If the price first pulls away from the cost band, the low-risk trial and error window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t Chase: On a single-day rapid pump, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding simultaneously rises, don’t turn the bottom fishing position into a chasing position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break Trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below 200WMA, and fng does not continue to cool down, funding instead strengthens, pause adding positions.
- Chase Trigger: Price quickly rises to significantly above 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding simultaneously rises, accumulation zone becomes invalid, revert to wait zone.
- Data Trigger: Subsequent completion of CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss if they do not support chip pressure, on-chain scores are downgraded, position pacing is reduced.
【Conclusion】Price is close to the long-term cost line, left-side qualification appears; the real risk is chasing the pump, not missing out. Today's status label: accumulation zone, bottom fishing total score 90/100; price $63,847, approximately 2.7% premium relative to the 200WMA $62,184, still near the long-term cost band; sentiment 20 (extreme fear), funding -0.0029%/8h, no obvious over-leverage; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.36, puell around 0.75, still relatively cold. Action in one sentence: open planned position 20%-30%, only spot or low leverage, and then accumulate in batches according to pullbacks and sentiment confirmations.
1) Score Breakdown
- Valuation Temperature: The price has given entry qualification, but it's not extremely cheap yet. Evidence is btc-price $63,847, 200WMA $62,184, about 2.7% premium; CVDD data missing/delayed, latest available date 2026-04-09, old value $47,470, current price is about 34.5% higher.
- Sentiment and Leverage: The discount comes from cold sentiment, not a crowded bullish market. Evidence is fng 20 (extreme fear), sentiment is in the extreme fear zone, the discount comes from panic; funding rate turns negative, short premium gives a little contrarian bias to the left side, latest settled funding is -0.0029%/8h.
- On-chain Chips: Valuation proxies support low-level trial and error, but supply profit and loss confirmation still lacks today's data. Evidence is CoinMetrics Community-derived mvrv-zscore 0.36, puell 0.75; supply-profit/supply-loss data missing/delayed, latest available date 2026-04-06, old values 49.55% / 50.45%.
2) Execution Suggestions
- First Open: If there’s no base position, enter with a small percentage according to plan, prioritize spot, avoid high leverage.
- Just Add: If the price pulls back near the 200WMA, and fng is still in the fear zone, funding not heating up, then add the second batch.
- Wait: If it breaks below the 200WMA but quickly recovers, while mvrv-zscore/puell continues to remain cold, the pacing can shift from slow to medium.
- Stop: If the price first pulls away from the cost band, the low-risk trial and error window closes, wait for the next pullback.
- Don’t Chase: On a single-day rapid pump, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding simultaneously rises, don’t turn the bottom fishing position into a chasing position.
3) Invalid Conditions
- Break Trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below 200WMA, and fng does not continue to cool down, funding instead strengthens, pause adding positions.
- Chase Trigger: Price quickly rises to significantly above 200WMA, fng recovers to neutral or above, funding simultaneously rises, accumulation zone becomes invalid, revert to wait zone.
- Data Trigger: Subsequent completion of CVDD, supply-profit, supply-loss if they do not support chip pressure, on-chain scores are downgraded, position pacing is reduced.
Today's Crypto News
1) MEV bot Jaredfromsubway.eth was exploited, resulting in a loss of about $7.5 million. This incident highlights that automated arbitrage and authorization logic can also be attack vectors, and DeFi security concerns extend beyond just user wallets.
2) WhiteBIT EU has received MiCA authorization in Austria, allowing it to offer compliant crypto services in the European Economic Area; with the EU transition period approaching, exchange licenses and market access will continue to diverge.
3) Franklin Templeton has submitted filings for two "Bitcoin DRIP" ETFs to the SEC, designed to automatically convert dividends from U.S. stock portfolios into Bitcoin exposure, expanding the range of hybrid products between traditional assets and BTC.
Conclusion: The weekend's news isn't particularly dense, but the main themes are clear: security risks, compliance hurdles, and institutional product innovation remain the three core threads driving crypto market pricing.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
1) MEV bot Jaredfromsubway.eth was exploited, resulting in a loss of about $7.5 million. This incident highlights that automated arbitrage and authorization logic can also be attack vectors, and DeFi security concerns extend beyond just user wallets.
2) WhiteBIT EU has received MiCA authorization in Austria, allowing it to offer compliant crypto services in the European Economic Area; with the EU transition period approaching, exchange licenses and market access will continue to diverge.
3) Franklin Templeton has submitted filings for two "Bitcoin DRIP" ETFs to the SEC, designed to automatically convert dividends from U.S. stock portfolios into Bitcoin exposure, expanding the range of hybrid products between traditional assets and BTC.
Conclusion: The weekend's news isn't particularly dense, but the main themes are clear: security risks, compliance hurdles, and institutional product innovation remain the three core threads driving crypto market pricing.
#BTC #ETH #CryptoNews #BinanceSquare
《BTC Bottom-Fishing Daily Report》
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about exchanging long-term cost for a single low-risk trial-and-error entry. Today’s status tag: Batch Zones. Total score for bottom-fishing: 88/100. Key evidence to look at only three things: the price $64,217, premium versus the 200WMA $62,154 of about 3.3%, and it’s still hovering near the long-term cost band; sentiment 23 (extreme fear), funding -0.0009%/8h—discount is there, but leverage hasn’t run out of control; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.33 and puell around 0.72, still relatively cold. One-sentence action: Open 20%-30% of the planned position first, add in batches according to the plan—don’t chase strength.
1）Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price gives a “left-side entry” qualification, but it hasn’t fallen into the extremely cheap zone, so it can only score, not go to full marks. The evidence: btc-price $64,217, 200WMA $62,154, premium about 3.3%; CVDD data is missing/delayed. The most recent available date is 2026-04-09; the old value was $47,470, and the current price is still about 35.3% higher.
- Sentiment and leverage: The discount mainly comes from cold sentiment, not from a crowded long-side scramble. Evidence: fng 23 (extreme fear). Sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone; the discount comes from panic rather than hype. Funding rate turned negative; the derivatives side gets an additional positive factor. The latest settled funding is -0.0009%/8h.
- On-chain supply allocation: Valuation proxies support trying at lower levels, but confirmation of supply profit/loss still lacks today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community-derived mvrv-zscore 0.33, puell 0.72; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed. The most recent available date is 2026-04-06; the old values were 49.55% / 50.45%.
2）Execution Recommendations
- Open first: For accounts without a base position, enter a small proportion of the planned allocation, prioritizing spot and avoiding high leverage.
- Add only if: Price retraces near the 200WMA, and fng remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t heat up—then add the second batch.
- Wait: If price drops below the 200WMA and can quickly rebound, while mvrv-zscore / puell stay skewed cold, you can shift batch timing from slow to medium speed.
- Stop: If price first moves away from the cost band, today’s low-risk trial window closes—better to wait for the next retracement.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sudden spike within a day, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises in sync, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chasing-the-move trade.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below the 200WMA, and fng doesn’t keep cooling further while funding instead strengthens—pause adding.
- Chase trigger: Price quickly rallies to clearly above the 200WMA; fng repairs to above neutral; funding rises in sync. The Batch Zones become invalid—switch back to the Waiting Zone.
- Data trigger: If subsequently filled CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss fail to support reduced supply pressure—down-adjust the on-chain valuation bonus and lower the position-batch schedule.
【Conclusion】Today isn’t about guessing the bottom. It’s about exchanging long-term cost for a single low-risk trial-and-error entry. Today’s status tag: Batch Zones. Total score for bottom-fishing: 88/100. Key evidence to look at only three things: the price $64,217, premium versus the 200WMA $62,154 of about 3.3%, and it’s still hovering near the long-term cost band; sentiment 23 (extreme fear), funding -0.0009%/8h—discount is there, but leverage hasn’t run out of control; on-chain valuation mvrv-zscore around 0.33 and puell around 0.72, still relatively cold. One-sentence action: Open 20%-30% of the planned position first, add in batches according to the plan—don’t chase strength.
1）Score Breakdown
- Valuation temperature: The price gives a “left-side entry” qualification, but it hasn’t fallen into the extremely cheap zone, so it can only score, not go to full marks. The evidence: btc-price $64,217, 200WMA $62,154, premium about 3.3%; CVDD data is missing/delayed. The most recent available date is 2026-04-09; the old value was $47,470, and the current price is still about 35.3% higher.
- Sentiment and leverage: The discount mainly comes from cold sentiment, not from a crowded long-side scramble. Evidence: fng 23 (extreme fear). Sentiment is still in the extreme fear zone; the discount comes from panic rather than hype. Funding rate turned negative; the derivatives side gets an additional positive factor. The latest settled funding is -0.0009%/8h.
- On-chain supply allocation: Valuation proxies support trying at lower levels, but confirmation of supply profit/loss still lacks today’s data. Evidence: CoinMetrics Community-derived mvrv-zscore 0.33, puell 0.72; supply-profit / supply-loss data is missing/delayed. The most recent available date is 2026-04-06; the old values were 49.55% / 50.45%.
2）Execution Recommendations
- Open first: For accounts without a base position, enter a small proportion of the planned allocation, prioritizing spot and avoiding high leverage.
- Add only if: Price retraces near the 200WMA, and fng remains in the fear zone while funding doesn’t heat up—then add the second batch.
- Wait: If price drops below the 200WMA and can quickly rebound, while mvrv-zscore / puell stay skewed cold, you can shift batch timing from slow to medium speed.
- Stop: If price first moves away from the cost band, today’s low-risk trial window closes—better to wait for the next retracement.
- Don’t chase: If there’s a sudden spike within a day, sentiment returns to neutral or above, and funding rises in sync, don’t turn the bottom-fishing position into a chasing-the-move trade.
3）Invalidation Conditions
- Breakdown trigger: btc-price effectively breaks below the 200WMA, and fng doesn’t keep cooling further while funding instead strengthens—pause adding.
- Chase trigger: Price quickly rallies to clearly above the 200WMA; fng repairs to above neutral; funding rises in sync. The Batch Zones become invalid—switch back to the Waiting Zone.
- Data trigger: If subsequently filled CVDD, supply-profit, and supply-loss fail to support reduced supply pressure—down-adjust the on-chain valuation bonus and lower the position-batch schedule.
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