The Great Divergence: Why
$BTC Cycle May Be Breaking
Something unusual happened to
$BTC in October 2025—but it wasn’t a bug in the protocol. What broke was something far more important: the analytical frameworks traders have relied on for nearly fifteen years.
On November 6, CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index collapsed to zero, meaning all ten of its indicators turned bearish at the same time. This has only happened once before—January 2023, when Bitcoin was trading near $16,000.
The difference now?
$BTC is still holding above $85,000.
This is where the divergence begins.
What the Data Is Quietly Screaming
Several on-chain and market metrics are flashing clear signs of stress:
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss) has dropped to 0.39, its lowest level since October 2023, signaling shrinking investor confidence.
Long-term holders distributed 761,000 BTC in just 30 days, the second-largest monthly outflow ever recorded.
ETF assets under management collapsed from $169.5B to $120.7B in just two months.
November alone saw $3.79B in ETF net outflows.
BlackRock’s IBIT ETF recorded $2.7B in redemptions over five weeks—challenging the idea of a “permanent institutional bid.”
Institutional money isn’t accumulating anymore. It’s exiting.
The October Liquidity Shock
October delivered a brutal reality check. A sudden liquidity event wiped out $19.13B across 1.6 million traders in just forty minutes.
During that window:
Order book depth collapsed by 98%
Bid-ask spreads expanded 1,321×
Liquidity simply vanished
This wasn’t normal volatility. It was structural stress.
The Most Dangerous Signal: Conflicting Indicators
Despite all of this, traditional cycle-top indicators remain strangely silent
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