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This week's macroeconomic calendar is focused on key interest rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and the U.S. Federal Reserve. According to NS3.AI, these decisions are anticipated to influence global financial markets significantly. Additionally, the schedule includes a press conference by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and another by the European Central Bank (ECB). ECB President Christine Lagarde is also set to deliver a speech, which is expected to provide further insights into the ECB's monetary policy direction.

Ethereum's price fluctuations could lead to substantial liquidations on major centralized exchanges. According to ChainCatcher, data from Coinglass indicates that if Ethereum's price falls below $2,244, the cumulative liquidation of long positions on these exchanges could reach $932 million. Conversely, if Ethereum's price surpasses $2,473, the liquidation of short positions could total $526 million.

A vulnerability in KelpDAO's cross-chain bridge has resulted in a bad debt of $292 million. According to PANews, this incident has led to a significant decline in the total value locked (TVL) in decentralized finance (DeFi) by 30% over the past three weeks. Additionally, the interest rates on Aave have surged to 12.4%.

The situation has prompted a closer examination of the real risks associated with DeFi stablecoin yields. Using bond mathematics, it has been revealed that a 5% yield is insufficient to cover the losses incurred. This analysis sheds light on the fair pricing baseline in the DeFi sector.

Brazil has imposed a block on 27 prediction market platforms, including Polymarket and Kalshi, as part of new regulations that classify most event-based contracts as gambling. According to NS3.AI, this move follows the issuance of Resolution 5.298 by Brazil's National Monetary Council. The block is set to take effect in early May. However, contracts related to inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices will continue to be permitted under financial market regulations.

The decentralized finance (DeFi) sector experienced a significant downturn following a hack on Kelp DAO, resulting in approximately $292 million in losses. According to NS3.AI, this incident contributed to a $13 billion decrease in the total value locked (TVL) within DeFi platforms. The decline was primarily due to the liquidation of leveraged positions rather than a direct loss of capital.

Aave, a major player in the DeFi space, witnessed substantial outflows amounting to $8.45 billion within a 48-hour period. This contributed to the overall reduction in DeFi TVL, which has now returned to levels seen a year ago. The hack and subsequent market reactions underscore the vulnerabilities and volatility inherent in the DeFi ecosystem.

Arthur Hayes, speaking at Korea Blockchain Week on April 10, 2026, projected that Bitcoin could surpass $1 million due to a $15.2 trillion credit expansion by 2028. According to NS3.AI, Hayes highlighted the U.S. government's use of the Genius Act and stablecoin regulations to establish price-inelastic buyers for short-term Treasury bills. Hayes' analysis suggests that these financial maneuvers could significantly impact Bitcoin's valuation in the coming years.

The U.S. Central Command has issued directives for 38 vessels to return to an Iranian port. According to Odaily, this development was reported without further details on the reasons behind the order or the specific port involved.

On April 27, Jin10 reported that according to CME's 'FedWatch', there is a 100% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged in April. The probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut by June stands at 4.7%, while the likelihood of maintaining the current rates is 95.3%.

North Carolina Republican Senator Thom Tillis announced on Sunday his support for Kevin Warsh's nomination as Federal Reserve Chair. According to Odaily, this endorsement removes a significant hurdle for U.S. President Donald Trump's choice to replace Jerome Powell. Tillis had previously withheld his support for Warsh, stating he would not back any Federal Reserve nominee while the Department of Justice's criminal investigation into Powell was ongoing. Tillis viewed the investigation as an attack on the central bank's independence. The investigation reportedly concluded last Friday.

A significant crypto whale, identified as '0xed4,' has deposited 5,532 ETH on HyperLiquid for sale, according to ChainCatcher. This transaction, valued at approximately $13 million, occurred within the past 24 hours. The whale also closed its 20x ETH short position on HyperLiquid but continues to hold a similar position on Lighter.

U.S. President Donald Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, is poised to take over as chair following Jerome Powell's final FOMC press conference on Wednesday. According to NS3.AI, the federal funds target currently stands at 3.50%–3.75%, with headline inflation at 3.3%. Warsh will face the challenge of managing a $6.7 trillion balance sheet amid persistent inflation pressures. Additionally, the cryptocurrency market, which has been closely linked to Federal Reserve liquidity, will be a significant factor in his tenure.

Babylon Foundation announced on the X platform that it will deposit $3 million USDT into Aave, with $2 million allocated to V3 and $1 million to V4. According to ChainCatcher, this move demonstrates Babylon Foundation's support and confidence in Aave and the broader DeFi ecosystem.

Any interest generated from this deposit will be returned to the Aave ecosystem through the Aave x Babylon integration, incentivizing both current recovery efforts and future adoption.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, monitored by CoinMarketCap, has increased to 46, marking a two-point rise from the previous day while remaining in neutral territory. According to NS3.AI, CoinMarketCap explained that the index is calculated using various factors, including price movements of the top 10 cryptocurrencies, market volatility, derivatives data, the Stablecoin Supply Ratio, and its proprietary search data.

Michael Terpin has projected that Bitcoin may reach a bottom near $57,000 in October, drawing on historical drawdowns and the usual timing of cycle lows. According to NS3.AI, Terpin also expressed skepticism about Bitcoin returning to $100,000 this year unless institutional buying remains robust, ETF inflows persist, and the market avoids significant sell-offs during dips.

Strategy's Bitcoin treasury reached a record $63.46 billion on April 26, with holdings totaling 815,061 BTC. According to NS3.AI, company filings reveal that Strategy acquired 34,164 BTC for approximately $2.54 billion last week, marking its largest single-week purchase in 17 months. The acquisition was funded through $2.18 billion from STRF perpetual preferred equity and $366 million from at-the-market sales of MSTR shares. Current spot prices indicate that the treasury is approximately $1.9 billion above Strategy's total cost basis.

On-chain real-world assets have reached approximately $29.9 billion as of April 2026, according to Wish Wu of Pharos Network. However, Wu noted that institutional adoption remains contingent on blockchain infrastructure aligning with traditional finance standards. Wu highlighted that tokenized U.S. government debt has expanded to nearly $14 billion on-chain. He emphasized that predictable costs, faster settlement, and controlled privacy are essential for wider adoption.

The Japanese and South Korean stock markets have both reached new highs. According to Jin10, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan is currently up by 0.47%, while South Korea's KOSPI index has increased by over 1%.

Oil futures surged over 2% early Monday as peace negotiations between the United States and Iran reached an impasse, limiting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and maintaining global oil supply tensions. According to Jin10, recent fluctuations in oil futures prices have been significant, with traders needing to predict both the resumption of oil exports from the Persian Gulf and the time required for regional production to return to pre-conflict levels. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that Iran's inability to export oil is increasing domestic pressure, potentially causing long-term damage to its energy export infrastructure. Goldman Sachs analysts also commented on Sunday, delaying their expectation for the Strait of Hormuz to return to normal export levels from mid-May to late June. Additionally, they raised their fourth-quarter WTI crude oil price forecast from $75 per barrel to $83 per barrel.

Iran has reportedly conveyed a three-stage negotiation proposal to the United States through intermediaries. According to PANews, the first stage of the talks focuses on ending the war completely and securing guarantees against renewed hostilities towards Iran and Lebanon. If an agreement is reached in this initial phase, the discussions will move to the second stage, which will specifically address the management of the Strait of Hormuz. The third stage involves nuclear issues, but Iran insists it will not engage in nuclear discussions until agreements are reached in the first two stages.

A significant wager has been placed on the Houston Rockets to defeat the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Western Conference first-round Game 4. According to Odaily, an account with a 67% win rate purchased over $260,000 worth of predictions for the Rockets' victory at an average price of 56 cents.

The game is scheduled to start at 9:30 a.m. (UTC+8). The Lakers currently lead the series 3-0. On the Rockets' side, reports indicate that Kevin Durant is expected to miss the fourth game against the Lakers due to a left ankle sprain with a bone bruise. This type of injury typically sidelines players for two to three weeks during the regular season. For the Lakers, Rivers is doubtful due to a left oblique strain, and Doncic will miss the game because of a left hamstring strain.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is anticipated to maintain its current interest rates on Tuesday. Bloomberg posted on X that this decision presents a communication challenge for Governor Kazuo Ueda, as the yen remains weak, nearing levels that have previously triggered interventions. The BOJ's stance comes amid ongoing concerns about the currency's stability and its impact on the Japanese economy. Market observers are keenly watching for any signals from the BOJ regarding future monetary policy adjustments.

Huatai Securities released a strategy report on April 27, indicating that the sentiment in Hong Kong stocks has recovered to a neutral level. According to Jin10, factors such as the fluctuating Middle East situation have led to a pullback in expectations for overseas liquidity easing. Combined with the approaching holidays, the upward potential for Hong Kong stocks is currently constrained, with a focus on structural adjustments being crucial.

Huatai Securities advises maintaining allocations along the lines of cash flow certainty and industry certainty. For cash flow certainty, it suggests holding cyclical products with stable cash flow and low capital expenditure pressure, such as coal and aluminum, as well as some low-volatility dividend stocks, including certain local Hong Kong stocks and state-owned banks. For industry certainty, it recommends focusing on the AI chain, which is still on an upward trend, anchored by U.S. stock performance during this week's 'super week.' Investors with a high-risk appetite may consider moderately investing in leading cloud and large model companies.

The diamond market, which had been quiet for some time, is experiencing a significant price increase. According to Jin10, several leading diamond companies in China have recently raised their product prices, with industrial diamonds and lab-grown diamond roughs seeing a rise of 10% to 15%. This price hike reflects an improvement in the industry's supply-demand dynamics and highlights the expanding application potential of diamonds as new materials in the wave of chip integration. As leading companies venture into new application areas such as chip cooling, diamonds are shedding their traditional cyclical commodity label and transitioning into the high-growth new materials sector.

A revised working paper has analyzed $13.76 billion in Polymarket trading, revealing that 3.14% of accounts captured over 30% of the gains. According to NS3.AI, the study found that 67% of accounts, categorized as unlucky or unskilled losers, absorbed the platform's aggregate losses. Additionally, the paper noted that suspected insider-like accounts were too isolated to account for Polymarket's overall accuracy.

Asian companies are entering the busiest week of the current earnings season, providing investors with an early look at how the ongoing conflict in Iran is influencing financial outcomes. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting the anticipation surrounding these earnings reports as businesses navigate the challenges posed by geopolitical tensions. The conflict's impact on supply chains and market stability is expected to be a focal point for analysts and investors alike. As companies release their financial results, the extent of the disruption caused by the Iran war will become clearer, offering insights into the broader economic implications for the region.

Iran's parliament speaker has indicated that Tehran retains unused supply levers as oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz remain significantly below normal levels, at about 95% less than usual. According to NS3.AI, data from Goldman Sachs reveals that Gulf crude production has decreased by approximately 14.5 million barrels per day, representing a 57% drop from pre-war levels. Goldman analysts predict that only 70% of the lost supply might be restored within three months following a complete and secure reopening, with 88% potentially returning within six months. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that American producers could mitigate part of the impact as Brent crude prices hover near $100 per barrel.

On April 27, Jin10 reported that as tensions in the Middle East drive up oil prices, U.S. Treasury market traders are closely monitoring this week's Federal Reserve meeting to assess officials' views on inflation prospects. According to Jin10, the market widely expects the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, but traders lean towards a rate cut by the end of the year. Swap market data from Friday indicates that the probability of a rate cut by year-end has risen to around 40%. This development could pave the way for Kevin Warsh, nominated by U.S. President Donald Trump, to lead the Fed and implement more accommodative policies in the future. In this context, traders will listen carefully to current Chairman Jerome Powell's remarks at the post-meeting press conference for updates on his plans after his term ends next May. Meanwhile, this week will also see a series of U.S. Treasury auctions, including 2-year and 5-year notes, to test market demand at current yield levels.

Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts for the fourth quarter of 2026 due to decreased crude production in the Middle East. According to Jin10, the investment bank has increased its expected price for Brent crude to $90 per barrel and for WTI crude to $83 per barrel.

Coachella has collaborated with Google DeepMind to develop three artificial intelligence prototypes during the 2026 festival. According to NS3.AI, these prototypes include a tool for recreating 3D shows, a stage-planning application, and a mobile game. Coachella has stated that these projects are currently internal proofs of concept as the festival evaluates the potential for implementing any of these features in future events.

A crypto project founder recently fell victim to a deepfake scam, where an impersonator posed as a Cardano Foundation official. According to NS3.AI, the scammer deceived the founder into installing a fraudulent Microsoft Teams update, leading to the compromise of his laptop. This incident highlights the increasing difficulty in detecting scams as AI technology advances, even for those with technical expertise. CryptoSlate has used this case to caution the community about the growing sophistication of AI-driven scams in the cryptocurrency sector.

Spot silver prices have dropped below $75 per ounce, marking a daily decline of 0.89%. According to Jin10, this decrease reflects ongoing volatility in the precious metals market.

U.S. stock futures for the three major indices opened slightly lower on Monday, with a decline of 0.2%. According to Jin10, this minor dip follows recent market fluctuations and investor caution amid ongoing economic uncertainties.

Spot gold opened on Monday with a gap down of $15, trading at $4,696.98 per ounce. According to Jin10, this marks a significant movement in the precious metals market as trading begins for the week.

US equity ETFs experienced a significant surge in average daily inflows, reaching a record $7.5 billion in April, more than doubling the $2.9 billion pace observed in March. According to NS3.AI, this increase was reported by Strategas Asset Management. Spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF products also rebounded in tandem with equities since the market bottom in March.

Crypto social engineering attacks are on the rise, with criminals having stolen $786 million from crypto projects so far this year. According to NS3.AI, security executives have noted that DeFi teams are once again a primary target as hackers increasingly exploit human error rather than relying solely on code vulnerabilities.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) is set to close the comment window for the GENIUS Act on May 1. According to NS3.AI, this leaves U.S. banks with only four days to respond to the proposed 376-page stablecoin rule. The proposal outlines reserve, custody, capital, and supervisory requirements, and introduces a two-tier licensing system with a $10 billion threshold for federal oversight.

UTXO Management has introduced a new private fund, UTXO Preferred Income Strategies LP, designed to generate income from preferred digital credit securities. According to NS3.AI, the fund features a dual-class structure, comprising a Senior Income Class and a Total Return Class. At the time of the announcement, no capital had been deployed under this strategy.

The U.S. Treasury has expanded its Pay.gov debt donation form to include PayPal and Venmo as payment options. According to NS3.AI, despite this addition, the average monthly donations amount to approximately $120,000, which is minimal compared to the nation's $39 trillion debt. Treasury data indicates that the donation program has been in operation since 1961, accumulating around $67 million since 1996, with about $30,000 collected in February 2026.

In parallel, the BITCOIN Act of 2025, which proposes the acquisition of 1 million BTC over a five-year period, is currently stalled in committee. This legislative proposal aims to integrate Bitcoin into the national financial strategy, but its progress remains uncertain.

Bridgewater Associates has significantly increased its investment in Nvidia, boosting its stake by over 54% in the last quarter. According to NS3.AI, analysts on TradingView have set a consensus price target for Nvidia at approximately $269, with a high target of $380. Nvidia reported a substantial rise in its Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue, reaching $68.1 billion, which marks a 73% increase compared to the previous year. Additionally, Nvidia has projected its Q1 FY2027 revenue to be $78 billion, surpassing Wall Street's expectations of $73 billion.

U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing for a visit to Beijing, facing a more challenging situation compared to his last meeting with President Xi Jinping six months ago. Bloomberg posted on X, highlighting that while China is managing the repercussions of the Iran conflict with relative stability, the United States is experiencing increasing difficulties. The geopolitical landscape has shifted, presenting new challenges for the U.S. administration as it navigates international relations and domestic pressures.