#Fidelity While many expected the Bitcoin "Supercycle" to carry us straight to $200k without looking back, a new macro report from Fidelity Investments suggests we might need to prepare for a "cyclical pause."
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Macro Lead, recently shared insights indicating that the 2026 cycle might look very different from the "moon mission" many hoped for.
The $65,000 Support Level: The New Floor?
According to Timmer, Bitcoin may have already hit its cycle peak when it touched $125,000 in October 2025. If historical "Bitcoin Winters" hold true, we could see a year of consolidation and cooling.
The Prediction: Timmer sees a potential price floor between $65,000 and $75,000 for the 2026 period.
The Logic: This range aligns with long-term mean reversion and historical support levels from the previous halving cycle.
The "Off-Year" Thesis: He describes 2026 as a likely "off-year" where Bitcoin underperforms compared to its explosive 2024-2025 growth.
Why the "4-Year Cycle" Might Still Rule
Despite massive institutional adoption through Spot ETFs (BlackRock, Fidelity), Timmer argues that the Halving Cycle and human psychology (Fear & Greed) still play a massive role.
Peak Timing: Hitting a peak after 145 months of rallying aligns perfectly with previous cycle math.
Macro Headwinds: With gold outperforming Bitcoin in late 2025, Fidelity suggests that the "digital gold" narrative is facing a temporary reality check.
The Contrarian View: Bulls Aren't Done Yet
Not everyone at Fidelity—or the wider market—is bearish. Chris Kuiper (VP of Research at Fidelity) notes that a "Supercycle" is still possible.
Institutional Cohort: A brand new class of investors (pension funds and wealth managers) is only just beginning to allocate. This could mean any "dip" to $65k will be aggressively bought, preventing a deeper crash.
ETF Stability: Spot ETFs provide a regulated "sink" for capital that wasn't there in previous bear markets, which could make the 2026 floor much higher than previous cycles.
🛡️ What This Means for Your Strategy:
If Fidelity is correct and $65k is the 2026 floor:
DCA is King: The $65k–$75k range would be a generational buying opportunity before the next pre-halving run.
Lower Volatility: We may see "boring" price action in 2026 rather than 80% crashes.
Long-Term Conviction: Fidelity remains a secular bull (long-term believer), meaning they see this as a pause, not an end.
What do you think? Is $65k a realistic floor, or are we heading straight back to six figures?
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