Treasury Yields Hold Steady Following Weak January ADP Hiring Report
U.S. Treasury yields remained relatively stable on February 4, 2026, after a weaker-than-expected January hiring report from payroll processor ADP showed private employers added only 22,000 jobs. This figure significantly missed economist expectations of 45,000 to 48,000 new positions and marked a decline from the downwardly revised 37,000 jobs added in December 2025. Despite an initial move lower following the lackluster data, yields recovered to finish the session nearly unchanged.
Treasury Yield Snapshot (February 4, 2026)
Maturity Yield Daily Change
2-Year Treasury 3.57% Down less than 1 basis point
10-Year Treasury 4.278% Up less than 1 basis point
30-Year Treasury 4.911% Up less than 1 basis point
Key Market Drivers
Lackluster Labor Market: The ADP report indicated a "low-hire, low-fire" environment at the start of 2026, confirming a multi-year cooling trend in labor demand.
Data Delays: Investors are operating with limited information as a partial government shutdown has delayed the release of the official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) nonfarm payrolls report, originally scheduled for February 6, 2026.
Fed Policy Outlook: While the weakening labor market supports arguments for eventual monetary easing, current market expectations suggest the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates on hold in the immediate term.
Service Sector Resilience: Offsetting the weak hiring data, the ISM Services PMI for January remained steady at 53.8, indicating continued growth in the broader U.S. economy.
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