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🚨 $BTC Alert: Rare Zone Detected!
$BTC is trading near **-1 SD of short-term holders’ average cost** — historically a **risk redistribution zone**, not a crash point.
📉 Past examples:
- 2020: ~$3k
- 2021: ~$29k
- 2022: $15k–$20k
- 2024: ~$49k
- 2025: $74k–$85k
💡 **Insight:** Selling pressure from weak hands is fading. Prolonged dips below this level are rare. Expect **local bottoms or consolidation before next impulse**.
🔹 Not a buy signal, but a **critical market condition marker**.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Binance #BTCAnalysis #MVRV
$BTC is trading near **-1 SD of short-term holders’ average cost** — historically a **risk redistribution zone**, not a crash point.
📉 Past examples:
- 2020: ~$3k
- 2021: ~$29k
- 2022: $15k–$20k
- 2024: ~$49k
- 2025: $74k–$85k
💡 **Insight:** Selling pressure from weak hands is fading. Prolonged dips below this level are rare. Expect **local bottoms or consolidation before next impulse**.
🔹 Not a buy signal, but a **critical market condition marker**.
#Crypto #Bitcoin #Binance #BTCAnalysis #MVRV
$BTC BTC update : Bitcoin price recovery? 3 signals reveal why traders remain cautious
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight band between $89,000 and $93,000, a range defined by alternating phases of investor profitability and profit-taking. On-chain metrics suggest momentum is quietly strengthening beneath the surface, even as parts of the market remain cautious.
Glassnode data shows BTC drifting further above its True Market Mean Value at $81,900, pushing overall profitability higher. The#MVRV MVRV ratio ticked up to 1.67, while daily trading volume spiked to $22.6 billion. However, US spot ETF holders responded by shifting from accumulation to distribution, rotating from $134.2 million in net buys to $707.3 million in net outflows — reinforcing lingering bearish pressure.
In the derivatives market, skepticism remains elevated. The 25-delta skew climbed to 12.88%, signaling demand for downside hedging as traders paid a premium for protective puts.
Yet, market momentum continues to rebuild. The 14-day RSI surged from 38.6 to 58.2, moving above neutral levels and confirming an emerging uptrend. Supply in profit also increased to 67.3%, though this raises the risk of additional sell pressure during rallies.
Glassnode notes Bitcoin is showing early recovery signals but still operates within a sentiment backdrop shaped by volatility and macro uncertainty. Expert Analyst Shawn Young emphasized that unresolved macro factors are keeping BTC capped below $94,000, even as equities strengthen.
Short-term holders currently drive market structure. The STH-SOPR rising to 18.5% and Hot Capital Share at 39.9% indicate active positioning from newer entrants. While STHs remain at a net loss with an average cost near $109,000, sustained momentum could shift behavior toward holding as BTC aims to reclaim six figures.
BTCUSDT
Perp
92,359.4
Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight band between $89,000 and $93,000, a range defined by alternating phases of investor profitability and profit-taking. On-chain metrics suggest momentum is quietly strengthening beneath the surface, even as parts of the market remain cautious.
Glassnode data shows BTC drifting further above its True Market Mean Value at $81,900, pushing overall profitability higher. The#MVRV MVRV ratio ticked up to 1.67, while daily trading volume spiked to $22.6 billion. However, US spot ETF holders responded by shifting from accumulation to distribution, rotating from $134.2 million in net buys to $707.3 million in net outflows — reinforcing lingering bearish pressure.
In the derivatives market, skepticism remains elevated. The 25-delta skew climbed to 12.88%, signaling demand for downside hedging as traders paid a premium for protective puts.
Yet, market momentum continues to rebuild. The 14-day RSI surged from 38.6 to 58.2, moving above neutral levels and confirming an emerging uptrend. Supply in profit also increased to 67.3%, though this raises the risk of additional sell pressure during rallies.
Glassnode notes Bitcoin is showing early recovery signals but still operates within a sentiment backdrop shaped by volatility and macro uncertainty. Expert Analyst Shawn Young emphasized that unresolved macro factors are keeping BTC capped below $94,000, even as equities strengthen.
Short-term holders currently drive market structure. The STH-SOPR rising to 18.5% and Hot Capital Share at 39.9% indicate active positioning from newer entrants. While STHs remain at a net loss with an average cost near $109,000, sustained momentum could shift behavior toward holding as BTC aims to reclaim six figures.
BTCUSDT
Perp
92,359.4
$BTC Bitcoin’s MVRV Signal Points to a $140K Target Before Any Deep Reset 📈🟪
Bitcoin has repeatedly tapped the MVRV +1SD band (🟪) at this cycle’s local tops — a level that historically aligns with overheated yet not blow-off conditions.
Right now, that band sits near $139.4K, which is nearly $50K above the current ~$91K price.
If BTC continues to respect this cyclical behavior, the risk–reward strongly tilts toward a push into the $140K region before any major correction unfolds.
Your projection highlights the volatility perfectly:
📊 $50K swings in either direction remain firmly on the table.
A run to ~$140K → then a deeper retest into the ~$40K zone is not unrealistic given BTC’s historical pattern of expansion followed by aggressive mean reversion.
In short:
Upside still has room before the real cycle top arrives — but the eventual correction could be just as violent.
Follow Wendy for more latest updates
#Bitcoin #MVRV #CryptoCycle
Bitcoin has repeatedly tapped the MVRV +1SD band (🟪) at this cycle’s local tops — a level that historically aligns with overheated yet not blow-off conditions.
Right now, that band sits near $139.4K, which is nearly $50K above the current ~$91K price.
If BTC continues to respect this cyclical behavior, the risk–reward strongly tilts toward a push into the $140K region before any major correction unfolds.
Your projection highlights the volatility perfectly:
📊 $50K swings in either direction remain firmly on the table.
A run to ~$140K → then a deeper retest into the ~$40K zone is not unrealistic given BTC’s historical pattern of expansion followed by aggressive mean reversion.
In short:
Upside still has room before the real cycle top arrives — but the eventual correction could be just as violent.
Follow Wendy for more latest updates
#Bitcoin #MVRV #CryptoCycle
📉 The Liquidity Cascade: Using {BTC.D} and the {MVRV} Z-Score to Frontrun Altseason 🗓️
🔄 Reading the Rotation:
The {ETF} Effect on Altcoins
Bitcoin's consolidation phase, after a rally fuelled by {ETF} inflows, is historically the precursor to the Altcoin Season. ETF-driven profits exit {BTC} and rotate into higher-beta assets. However, the {Altcoin Season Index} is currently at a low of \mathbf{27} (Dec 2025), showing we are still early.
🎯 Multi-Factor Confirmation: {BTC.D} + \{MVRV} Signal
The best signal for the shift involves combining Bitcoin Dominance {BTC.D}) with the {MVRV} Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value).
{$BTC .D} Break: Wait for {BTC.D} to break and hold below the 56\% support line for a sustained period (2-3 weekly closes). This confirms liquidity is flowing out of Bitcoin.
{MVRV} Z-Score: Simultaneously, look for the \{MVRV} Z-Score to be rising from the 'Green Zone' (accumulation) but still remaining comfortably below the 'Red Zone' (overheating). This suggests the market has plenty of room to run without being overbought, creating a high-conviction entry point for altcoins.
#AltcoinSeason2025 #BTCdominance #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSignal
🔄 Reading the Rotation:
The {ETF} Effect on Altcoins
Bitcoin's consolidation phase, after a rally fuelled by {ETF} inflows, is historically the precursor to the Altcoin Season. ETF-driven profits exit {BTC} and rotate into higher-beta assets. However, the {Altcoin Season Index} is currently at a low of \mathbf{27} (Dec 2025), showing we are still early.
🎯 Multi-Factor Confirmation: {BTC.D} + \{MVRV} Signal
The best signal for the shift involves combining Bitcoin Dominance {BTC.D}) with the {MVRV} Z-Score (Market Value to Realized Value).
{$BTC .D} Break: Wait for {BTC.D} to break and hold below the 56\% support line for a sustained period (2-3 weekly closes). This confirms liquidity is flowing out of Bitcoin.
{MVRV} Z-Score: Simultaneously, look for the \{MVRV} Z-Score to be rising from the 'Green Zone' (accumulation) but still remaining comfortably below the 'Red Zone' (overheating). This suggests the market has plenty of room to run without being overbought, creating a high-conviction entry point for altcoins.
#AltcoinSeason2025 #BTCdominance #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #TradingSignal
CryptoQuant предупреждает: на графике BTC формируется “второй горб верблюда” 🐪
🔍 Коэффициент MVRV указывает на возможное начало нисходящего тренда уже в конце августа — до 10 сентября.
Аналитики сравнивают текущую ситуацию с движением рынка в 2021 году — тогда вторая вершина закончилась сильной коррекцией.
📉 Если сигнал подтвердится — это может быть началом среднесрочной фазы снижения на рынке.
❓ Как думаете, повторится ли сценарий 2021 года? Или рынок уже действует по новым правилам? Пишите в комментарии 👇
#btc #bitcoin #crypto #CryptoQuant #MVRV
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
🔍 Коэффициент MVRV указывает на возможное начало нисходящего тренда уже в конце августа — до 10 сентября.
Аналитики сравнивают текущую ситуацию с движением рынка в 2021 году — тогда вторая вершина закончилась сильной коррекцией.
📉 Если сигнал подтвердится — это может быть началом среднесрочной фазы снижения на рынке.
❓ Как думаете, повторится ли сценарий 2021 года? Или рынок уже действует по новым правилам? Пишите в комментарии 👇
#btc #bitcoin #crypto #CryptoQuant #MVRV
$BTC
$ETH
$SOL
ADA惊天一跃！9月能突破1美元吗？投资者屏息以待
🚀卡尔达诺最新动向：ADA能否在9月突破1美元大关？
最近几个月，卡尔达诺（ADA）的价格走势一直呈现 看涨态势📈，但也要注意潜在的获利回吐风险⚠️，这可能会短期阻碍价格上涨。根据 平均币龄（MCA） 的数据，全网络代币的积累正在悄然进行，这意味着持有者逐渐囤币，为下一轮上涨做准备💪。
📊近期行情概览
截至 8 月 25 日，卡尔达诺价格在短期内出现震荡。过去三天，比特币（#BTC ）从 11.7万美元回落至11.15万美元，跌幅 4.6%，也带动山寨币市场承压💥。同期，卡尔达诺市值下跌 6.67%，价格从 0.93美元降至0.86美元。
来源：TradingView 上的 ADA/USDT
尽管如此，从 单日价格图表 看，卡尔达诺仍保持 看涨结构📈。8 月份交易量较高，也显示市场依然活跃🔥。
💡关键阻力位与潜在上涨目标
8 月 14 日，ADA 曾测试 1美元心理阻力位，但未能突破。这也意味着 下一轮上涨的机会仍在等待。如果成功突破 1 美元，根据斐波那契扩展线，1.2美元将成为下一个潜在目标📌。
短期来看，卡尔达诺正处于 关键十字路口，价格能否突破心理关口，将直接影响市场情绪。
🔗链上指标解读
卡尔达诺历来 开发活动活跃，这也是其技术实力的体现🏗️。截至目前，ADA 的开发活动得分仍高达 80.86，远高于以太坊（ETH）的 25.05。
来源：Santiment
不过，交易活动下降仍是长期投资者的潜在担忧。过去一年，链上交易量曾出现两次大幅下降：
2024 年 11 月2025 年 4 月
近期交易量与去年 11 月水平相比下降 90%😮，这可能意味着短期内部分活跃度减弱。
值得注意的是，2025 年全年的每日活跃地址数仍保持稳定📊，显示核心社区依然健康运作。
值得注意的是，2025 年全年的每日活跃地址数仍保持稳定📊，显示核心社区依然健康运作。
🐾持有者行为与MVRV
卡尔达诺的看涨结构及 1美元阻力位挑战，意味着大量持有者可能获利了结💰。180 天 MVRV 指标显示，持有者确实有回吐压力，但截至目前，这一威胁尚未兑现。
📈代币积累迹象：平均币龄（MCA）
MCA 用来追踪网络上代币的平均持有时间⌛。一般来说，下降趋势意味着代币在流通或交易，而缓慢上升则表明 持有者在积累代币。
自今年 5 月以来，卡尔达诺的代币出现分配趋势，但在过去两周，MCA 开始缓慢上升📈，这意味着 网络上的代币正在悄悄囤积，或为下一轮上涨做准备💎。
🔮总结
#ADA 近期保持 看涨趋势，价格接近心理阻力 1美元若突破1美元，下一目标可望达 1.2美元链上指标显示开发活跃，#MVRV 表明获利回吐压力尚未兑现平均币龄上升，暗示持币者在积累，未来上涨空间存在
总体来看，卡尔达诺在 9月有望迎来新一轮挑战💥。持有者、投资者都应关注 关键阻力位和 链上数据变化，做好策略布局📝。
最近几个月，卡尔达诺（ADA）的价格走势一直呈现 看涨态势📈，但也要注意潜在的获利回吐风险⚠️，这可能会短期阻碍价格上涨。根据 平均币龄（MCA） 的数据，全网络代币的积累正在悄然进行，这意味着持有者逐渐囤币，为下一轮上涨做准备💪。
📊近期行情概览
截至 8 月 25 日，卡尔达诺价格在短期内出现震荡。过去三天，比特币（#BTC ）从 11.7万美元回落至11.15万美元，跌幅 4.6%，也带动山寨币市场承压💥。同期，卡尔达诺市值下跌 6.67%，价格从 0.93美元降至0.86美元。
来源：TradingView 上的 ADA/USDT
尽管如此，从 单日价格图表 看，卡尔达诺仍保持 看涨结构📈。8 月份交易量较高，也显示市场依然活跃🔥。
💡关键阻力位与潜在上涨目标
8 月 14 日，ADA 曾测试 1美元心理阻力位，但未能突破。这也意味着 下一轮上涨的机会仍在等待。如果成功突破 1 美元，根据斐波那契扩展线，1.2美元将成为下一个潜在目标📌。
短期来看，卡尔达诺正处于 关键十字路口，价格能否突破心理关口，将直接影响市场情绪。
🔗链上指标解读
卡尔达诺历来 开发活动活跃，这也是其技术实力的体现🏗️。截至目前，ADA 的开发活动得分仍高达 80.86，远高于以太坊（ETH）的 25.05。
来源：Santiment
不过，交易活动下降仍是长期投资者的潜在担忧。过去一年，链上交易量曾出现两次大幅下降：
2024 年 11 月2025 年 4 月
近期交易量与去年 11 月水平相比下降 90%😮，这可能意味着短期内部分活跃度减弱。
值得注意的是，2025 年全年的每日活跃地址数仍保持稳定📊，显示核心社区依然健康运作。
值得注意的是，2025 年全年的每日活跃地址数仍保持稳定📊，显示核心社区依然健康运作。
🐾持有者行为与MVRV
卡尔达诺的看涨结构及 1美元阻力位挑战，意味着大量持有者可能获利了结💰。180 天 MVRV 指标显示，持有者确实有回吐压力，但截至目前，这一威胁尚未兑现。
📈代币积累迹象：平均币龄（MCA）
MCA 用来追踪网络上代币的平均持有时间⌛。一般来说，下降趋势意味着代币在流通或交易，而缓慢上升则表明 持有者在积累代币。
自今年 5 月以来，卡尔达诺的代币出现分配趋势，但在过去两周，MCA 开始缓慢上升📈，这意味着 网络上的代币正在悄悄囤积，或为下一轮上涨做准备💎。
🔮总结
#ADA 近期保持 看涨趋势，价格接近心理阻力 1美元若突破1美元，下一目标可望达 1.2美元链上指标显示开发活跃，#MVRV 表明获利回吐压力尚未兑现平均币龄上升，暗示持币者在积累，未来上涨空间存在
总体来看，卡尔达诺在 9月有望迎来新一轮挑战💥。持有者、投资者都应关注 关键阻力位和 链上数据变化，做好策略布局📝。
#Bitcoin Shows Signs of Stabilization: Can $BTC Rebound Toward $120K?
Since mid-2025, institutional confidence in Bitcoin (#BTC ) has steadily increased, as the asset’s annualized volatility fell to near 30%, the lowest ever recorded in its history. This decline in volatility has drawn attention from long-term investors, signaling that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a purely speculative asset toward a more mature macro hedge in institutional portfolios.
Financial giant #JPMorgan recently emphasized that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, highlighting its evolving role in diversified investment strategies rather than simply being a speculative vehicle. This view aligns with a broader trend of growing institutional adoption, particularly among hedge funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries.
On-Chain Metrics #Signal Structural Strength
Several on-chain indicators reinforce the argument that Bitcoin’s current price may underestimate its intrinsic value.
#MVRV Ratio at 2.1: This metric, which compares market capitalization to realized value, remains well below overheated levels near 4, suggesting BTC is not in a speculative bubble.
Shrinking Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, reflecting a trend of long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading.
ETF Inflows: Despite volatility, exchange-traded fund inflows have remained steady, indicating sustained institutional demand.
Together, these indicators suggest a structurally bullish foundation, with both long-term holders and institutional investors supporting Bitcoin at current levels.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch...
read more 24crypto .news
Since mid-2025, institutional confidence in Bitcoin (#BTC ) has steadily increased, as the asset’s annualized volatility fell to near 30%, the lowest ever recorded in its history. This decline in volatility has drawn attention from long-term investors, signaling that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a purely speculative asset toward a more mature macro hedge in institutional portfolios.
Financial giant #JPMorgan recently emphasized that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold, highlighting its evolving role in diversified investment strategies rather than simply being a speculative vehicle. This view aligns with a broader trend of growing institutional adoption, particularly among hedge funds, family offices, and corporate treasuries.
On-Chain Metrics #Signal Structural Strength
Several on-chain indicators reinforce the argument that Bitcoin’s current price may underestimate its intrinsic value.
#MVRV Ratio at 2.1: This metric, which compares market capitalization to realized value, remains well below overheated levels near 4, suggesting BTC is not in a speculative bubble.
Shrinking Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin held on exchanges continues to decline, reflecting a trend of long-term accumulation rather than short-term trading.
ETF Inflows: Despite volatility, exchange-traded fund inflows have remained steady, indicating sustained institutional demand.
Together, these indicators suggest a structurally bullish foundation, with both long-term holders and institutional investors supporting Bitcoin at current levels.
Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch...
read more 24crypto .news
Ethereum ($ETH ) is showing strong bullish signals! 🚀
The recent 15%+ rebound from lows, coupled with a bull flag pattern and positive on-chain data, suggests we could see significant upside momentum.
A key indicator, the MVRV deviation bands, shows ETH stabilizing near historical support, which has often been a launching pad for rallies toward $5,000!
The critical hurdle to watch? Holding above the 200-day EMA near $3,550 to confirm the bullish setup.
Can ETH reclaim $4,500 this October? Things are looking promising! 👀
#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #BullFlag #MVRV
The recent 15%+ rebound from lows, coupled with a bull flag pattern and positive on-chain data, suggests we could see significant upside momentum.
A key indicator, the MVRV deviation bands, shows ETH stabilizing near historical support, which has often been a launching pad for rallies toward $5,000!
The critical hurdle to watch? Holding above the 200-day EMA near $3,550 to confirm the bullish setup.
Can ETH reclaim $4,500 this October? Things are looking promising! 👀
#Ethereum #ETH #Crypto #BullFlag #MVRV
Bitcoin($BTC ) tocó fondo, según el indicador
#MVRV 👀
El indicador MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) es un termómetro clave que compara el valor actual de mercado de bitcoin ($BTC ) con el precio al que sus monedas fueron adquiridas en promedio. 📈
Esto revela si el mercado está sobrecalentado (sobrevalorado) o sobrevendido (infravalorado).
🗞 Más detalles
#MVRV 👀
El indicador MVRV (Market-Value-to-Realized-Value) es un termómetro clave que compara el valor actual de mercado de bitcoin ($BTC ) con el precio al que sus monedas fueron adquiridas en promedio. 📈
Esto revela si el mercado está sobrecalentado (sobrevalorado) o sobrevendido (infravalorado).
🗞 Más detalles
比特币熊市信号隐现：CMO 指标跌破关键阈值，分析师警示下行风险；以太坊竞品 Cardano 现逆转形态，短期看涨预期明确
加密货币市场近期再度进入多空博弈的关键阶段，知名加密货币分析师兼交易员阿里・马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）通过其 X 平台（原 Twitter）账号向 15.39 万名关注者发布最新市场研判，直指比特币（BTC）当前浮现明确熊市前兆信号，同时针对以太坊（ETH）生态的重要竞争对手卡尔达诺（ADA）给出了差异化的技术面展望，引发市场广泛关注。
比特币：双指标释放看跌信号，关键价位成多空生死线
马丁内斯在分析中重点提及两大核心技术指标，均指向比特币短期走势的不确定性。
其一为钱德动量震荡指标（CMO） 。作为衡量资产价格趋势强度与反转可能性的经典技术工具，CMO 指标的数值区间通常被市场视为趋势判断的重要参考 —— 行业普遍共识是，当 CMO 指标高于 20 时，意味着资产处于牛市趋势区间，买盘力量主导市场；而当指标低于 20 时，则暗示市场偏向熊市格局，卖压或逐步占据上风。马丁内斯指出，比特币的 CMO 指标在本月（注：结合市场时间线推测为分析发布当月，非固定月份）已出现关键异动：继前期短暂反弹后，8 月份的月线收盘价直接将该指标再度压回 20 以下，这一信号与历史上多次比特币阶段性调整的起点特征高度吻合，表明当前市场多头动能不足，空头力量正在逐步积累。
其二是市场价值与实现价值比率（MVRV）定价区间 。该指标通过对比比特币当前市值与所有持有者的平均持仓成本（实现价值），来判断资产的估值高低与潜在价格区间。马丁内斯基于 MVRV 数据进一步警示，比特币当前正面临明确的阻力位压制：若无法突破 114,250 美元这一关键价格关口，后续将大概率下探至 92,600 美元的核心支撑位。从市场逻辑来看，114,250 美元不仅是 MVRV 指标测算出的估值阻力区，同时也是前期市场多次尝试突破未果的密集成交区间，一旦持续承压，可能引发部分获利盘了结与止损盘抛压，加剧价格下行幅度。
截至马丁内斯发布分析报告并经数据核实，比特币的实时交易价格为 110,911 美元，正处于 114,250 美元阻力位与 92,600 美元支撑位之间的中间区域，多空双方尚未形成明确方向，短期走势将高度依赖关键价位的突破情况。
卡尔达诺（ADA）：逆市现下降楔形形态，短期看涨空间明确
与比特币的看跌预期形成对比的是，马丁内斯对以太坊生态的重要竞争对手、当前市值排名第 11 位的加密货币卡尔达诺（ADA）给出了偏向乐观的技术面判断。
他指出，卡尔达诺近期在日线级别图表上正逐步形成一个经典的下降楔形形态 。从技术分析理论来看，下降楔形属于典型的 “整理后逆转” 形态 —— 该形态通常出现在资产长期下行趋势的末端，表现为价格在不断收窄的区间内震荡下行，每次反弹的高点与下跌的低点均逐步下移，最终形成楔形结构。历史数据显示，当资产完成下降楔形形态并伴随成交量温和放大时，往往意味着下行趋势即将终结，后续大概率迎来趋势反转，开启一轮反弹行情。
基于对该形态的测算，马丁内斯给出了具体的价格目标：若卡尔达诺能站稳当前支撑位并完成楔形形态的突破，其价格有望从分析发布时的当前水平（注：结合后续目标价推算，当前价格约为 0.85-0.86 美元区间）上涨 10% 以上，最终触及 0.94 美元的目标位。这一目标价的测算逻辑，既参考了下降楔形形态 “形态高度对应反弹高度” 的技术规则（楔形最宽处的垂直距离约为 0.09-0.10 美元，对应从形态末端的反弹空间），同时也考虑了 0.94 美元附近是前期市场的阶段性成交密集区，具备一定的心理关口意义，若突破该价位，可能进一步打开后续反弹空间。
需要注意的是，马丁内斯同时强调，卡尔达诺的看涨预期需建立在 “形态有效突破” 的前提之上 —— 若未能突破楔形上沿阻力，或在突破后无法站稳，仍存在重回下行趋势的风险，投资者需警惕形态失效带来的回调压力。
整体来看，马丁内斯的最新分析为当前加密货币市场提供了清晰的多空逻辑：比特币面临双指标压制，短期需警惕下行风险；而卡尔达诺等以太坊竞品则凭借技术形态优势，展现出逆市反弹的可能性，市场分化格局或进一步凸显。#MVRV
比特币：双指标释放看跌信号，关键价位成多空生死线
马丁内斯在分析中重点提及两大核心技术指标，均指向比特币短期走势的不确定性。
其一为钱德动量震荡指标（CMO） 。作为衡量资产价格趋势强度与反转可能性的经典技术工具，CMO 指标的数值区间通常被市场视为趋势判断的重要参考 —— 行业普遍共识是，当 CMO 指标高于 20 时，意味着资产处于牛市趋势区间，买盘力量主导市场；而当指标低于 20 时，则暗示市场偏向熊市格局，卖压或逐步占据上风。马丁内斯指出，比特币的 CMO 指标在本月（注：结合市场时间线推测为分析发布当月，非固定月份）已出现关键异动：继前期短暂反弹后，8 月份的月线收盘价直接将该指标再度压回 20 以下，这一信号与历史上多次比特币阶段性调整的起点特征高度吻合，表明当前市场多头动能不足，空头力量正在逐步积累。
其二是市场价值与实现价值比率（MVRV）定价区间 。该指标通过对比比特币当前市值与所有持有者的平均持仓成本（实现价值），来判断资产的估值高低与潜在价格区间。马丁内斯基于 MVRV 数据进一步警示，比特币当前正面临明确的阻力位压制：若无法突破 114,250 美元这一关键价格关口，后续将大概率下探至 92,600 美元的核心支撑位。从市场逻辑来看，114,250 美元不仅是 MVRV 指标测算出的估值阻力区，同时也是前期市场多次尝试突破未果的密集成交区间，一旦持续承压，可能引发部分获利盘了结与止损盘抛压，加剧价格下行幅度。
截至马丁内斯发布分析报告并经数据核实，比特币的实时交易价格为 110,911 美元，正处于 114,250 美元阻力位与 92,600 美元支撑位之间的中间区域，多空双方尚未形成明确方向，短期走势将高度依赖关键价位的突破情况。
卡尔达诺（ADA）：逆市现下降楔形形态，短期看涨空间明确
与比特币的看跌预期形成对比的是，马丁内斯对以太坊生态的重要竞争对手、当前市值排名第 11 位的加密货币卡尔达诺（ADA）给出了偏向乐观的技术面判断。
他指出，卡尔达诺近期在日线级别图表上正逐步形成一个经典的下降楔形形态 。从技术分析理论来看，下降楔形属于典型的 “整理后逆转” 形态 —— 该形态通常出现在资产长期下行趋势的末端，表现为价格在不断收窄的区间内震荡下行，每次反弹的高点与下跌的低点均逐步下移，最终形成楔形结构。历史数据显示，当资产完成下降楔形形态并伴随成交量温和放大时，往往意味着下行趋势即将终结，后续大概率迎来趋势反转，开启一轮反弹行情。
基于对该形态的测算，马丁内斯给出了具体的价格目标：若卡尔达诺能站稳当前支撑位并完成楔形形态的突破，其价格有望从分析发布时的当前水平（注：结合后续目标价推算，当前价格约为 0.85-0.86 美元区间）上涨 10% 以上，最终触及 0.94 美元的目标位。这一目标价的测算逻辑，既参考了下降楔形形态 “形态高度对应反弹高度” 的技术规则（楔形最宽处的垂直距离约为 0.09-0.10 美元，对应从形态末端的反弹空间），同时也考虑了 0.94 美元附近是前期市场的阶段性成交密集区，具备一定的心理关口意义，若突破该价位，可能进一步打开后续反弹空间。
需要注意的是，马丁内斯同时强调，卡尔达诺的看涨预期需建立在 “形态有效突破” 的前提之上 —— 若未能突破楔形上沿阻力，或在突破后无法站稳，仍存在重回下行趋势的风险，投资者需警惕形态失效带来的回调压力。
整体来看，马丁内斯的最新分析为当前加密货币市场提供了清晰的多空逻辑：比特币面临双指标压制，短期需警惕下行风险；而卡尔达诺等以太坊竞品则凭借技术形态优势，展现出逆市反弹的可能性，市场分化格局或进一步凸显。#MVRV
Bitcoin Oversold — Is Accumulation Underway?
Oversold metrics are signaling a potential buying opportunity. With the MVRV ratio at -11.5%, Bitcoin sits in a classic accumulation zone where long-term holders quietly accumulate supply.
The recent bounce, however, is not yet a confirmed trend—it reflects a short-term reaction driven by support levels holding firm and clear oversold conditions. While these signals highlight opportunity, a true reversal in momentum will require Bitcoin to reclaim and sustain $95,000.
Investors monitoring this phase can interpret it as a measured accumulation window. The market is quietly preparing, and those with patience may position themselves advantageously for the next significant move in BTC.
#BTC #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoAccumulation #MVRV #MarketInsight
Oversold metrics are signaling a potential buying opportunity. With the MVRV ratio at -11.5%, Bitcoin sits in a classic accumulation zone where long-term holders quietly accumulate supply.
The recent bounce, however, is not yet a confirmed trend—it reflects a short-term reaction driven by support levels holding firm and clear oversold conditions. While these signals highlight opportunity, a true reversal in momentum will require Bitcoin to reclaim and sustain $95,000.
Investors monitoring this phase can interpret it as a measured accumulation window. The market is quietly preparing, and those with patience may position themselves advantageously for the next significant move in BTC.
#BTC #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoAccumulation #MVRV #MarketInsight
比特币可能进入熊市？CryptoQuant发出警告！
最近，CryptoQuant的分析师通过链上数据发现了一些令人担忧的信号，表明比特币可能正处于熊市的开始。尽管比特币的回调在牛市中并不罕见，但当前的估值指标显示，这次调整可能比以往更深。
CryptoQuant的分析师从链上数据里发现了一些不太妙的信号。比如，比特币的牛熊周期指标目前处于本周期里最看跌的水平，而且市场价值与实际价值（MVRV）比率的Z分数已经跌破了365天移动平均线。这说明比特币的上涨势头已经减弱了。
而且，比特币的需求也在收缩，鲸鱼们增持的速度也慢了下来。上周，比特币的需求以2024年7月以来最快的速度暴跌，一下子少了103,000 BTC。不只是鲸鱼，其他大投资者的年增持率也大幅下降，从1月份的368,000 BTC降到现在的268,000 BTC。
更让人担心的是，美国的现货比特币ETF现在成了BTC的净卖家，这和去年同期疯狂购买的情况形成了鲜明对比。今年到现在，这些ETF总共才买了价值7亿美元的BTC，而去年同期可是买了87亿美元呢。这给比特币价格带来了额外的下行压力。
另外，从其他平台流入美国最大加密货币交易所Coinbase的BTC数量也跌破了90天移动平均线。自2月13日以来，Coinbase一直处于价格调整期，当时BTC的价格大概是96,000美元。通常需求高涨的时候，BTC会流入Coinbase，但现在情况反过来了。
CryptoQuant的分析师还说，如果BTC不能守住75,000到78,000美元之间的支撑位，价格可能会跌到63,000美元。截至发稿，BTC的价格是83,400美元，而63,000美元是交易者的最低链上实现价格区间。
你认为比特币已经进入到熊市吗？未来几周，比特币会反弹还是继续下跌？此时你会选择选择抄底，还是继续观望？
#比特币 #熊市预警 #CryptoQuant #MVRV
最近，CryptoQuant的分析师通过链上数据发现了一些令人担忧的信号，表明比特币可能正处于熊市的开始。尽管比特币的回调在牛市中并不罕见，但当前的估值指标显示，这次调整可能比以往更深。
CryptoQuant的分析师从链上数据里发现了一些不太妙的信号。比如，比特币的牛熊周期指标目前处于本周期里最看跌的水平，而且市场价值与实际价值（MVRV）比率的Z分数已经跌破了365天移动平均线。这说明比特币的上涨势头已经减弱了。
而且，比特币的需求也在收缩，鲸鱼们增持的速度也慢了下来。上周，比特币的需求以2024年7月以来最快的速度暴跌，一下子少了103,000 BTC。不只是鲸鱼，其他大投资者的年增持率也大幅下降，从1月份的368,000 BTC降到现在的268,000 BTC。
更让人担心的是，美国的现货比特币ETF现在成了BTC的净卖家，这和去年同期疯狂购买的情况形成了鲜明对比。今年到现在，这些ETF总共才买了价值7亿美元的BTC，而去年同期可是买了87亿美元呢。这给比特币价格带来了额外的下行压力。
另外，从其他平台流入美国最大加密货币交易所Coinbase的BTC数量也跌破了90天移动平均线。自2月13日以来，Coinbase一直处于价格调整期，当时BTC的价格大概是96,000美元。通常需求高涨的时候，BTC会流入Coinbase，但现在情况反过来了。
CryptoQuant的分析师还说，如果BTC不能守住75,000到78,000美元之间的支撑位，价格可能会跌到63,000美元。截至发稿，BTC的价格是83,400美元，而63,000美元是交易者的最低链上实现价格区间。
你认为比特币已经进入到熊市吗？未来几周，比特币会反弹还是继续下跌？此时你会选择选择抄底，还是继续观望？
#比特币 #熊市预警 #CryptoQuant #MVRV
🛑 BTC готов к движению: STH MVRV указывает на $115,000-120,000
Согласно данным CryptoQuant, ключевой ончейн-индикатор STH MVRV (отношение рыночной стоимости к реализованной для краткосрочных держателей) сигнализирует о потенциальном росте Биткоина до зоны $115,000-120,000.
Этот индикатор отражает поведение "слабых рук" - когда краткосрочные держатели начинают фиксировать прибыль, это часто совпадает с локальными максимумами. Сейчас же модель показывает, что потенциал для роста еще не исчерпан.
Особенно важно, что сигнал подтверждается на фоне снижения интереса розницы - классическое сочетание для начала устойчивого бычьего движения. Для меня ключевым уровнем остается поддержка на $100,000.
Когда ончейн-метрики и ценовое действие синхронизируются - это сильнейший сигнал для внимательного изучения актива.
make difference: твое отличие на рынке. Обнимаю 🫂
#bitcoin #CryptoQuantitative #CryptoQuant #MVRV $BTC
Согласно данным CryptoQuant, ключевой ончейн-индикатор STH MVRV (отношение рыночной стоимости к реализованной для краткосрочных держателей) сигнализирует о потенциальном росте Биткоина до зоны $115,000-120,000.
Этот индикатор отражает поведение "слабых рук" - когда краткосрочные держатели начинают фиксировать прибыль, это часто совпадает с локальными максимумами. Сейчас же модель показывает, что потенциал для роста еще не исчерпан.
Особенно важно, что сигнал подтверждается на фоне снижения интереса розницы - классическое сочетание для начала устойчивого бычьего движения. Для меня ключевым уровнем остается поддержка на $100,000.
Когда ончейн-метрики и ценовое действие синхронизируются - это сильнейший сигнал для внимательного изучения актива.
make difference: твое отличие на рынке. Обнимаю 🫂
#bitcoin #CryptoQuantitative #CryptoQuant #MVRV $BTC
الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة CryptoQuant يقول إن دورة صعود البيتكوين قد انتهت، فهل توحيد البيتكوين طويل الأمد؟
صرّح يونغ جو، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة كريبتو كوانت، بأن أسعار البيتكوين قد تشهد انخفاضًا خلال الأشهر الستة إلى الاثني عشر القادمة.
يشير نشاط تداول البيتكوين الأخير إلى دخول العملة المشفرة مرحلة توحيد.
يبدو أن سوق العملات المشفرة دخل مرحلة اندماج خلال الأيام القليلة الماضية.
وقد أدى غياب أي تحركات جوهرية إلى حالة من الشك والريبة بين المستثمرين، مما أدى بدوره إلى موجة بيع بين المتداولين على المدى القصير. في غضون ذلك، لا يزال قطاع صناديق الاستثمار المتداولة واحتياطيات العملات المشفرة يشهدان نشاطًا متزايدًا على الرغم من تراجع الأسعار.
وتأكيدًا لأسوأ مخاوف المستثمرين، نشر كي يونغ جو، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة كريبتو كوانت، تنبؤًا بشأن بيتكوين قبل ساعات قليلة.
ووفقًا لهذا التنبؤ، صرّح جو بأن دورة صعود بيتكوين قد انتهت رسميًا. وأشار أيضًا إلى أنه خلال الأشهر الستة إلى الاثني عشر المقبلة، يمكننا توقع أسعار هبوطية أو جانبية.
أولت مجتمعات العملات المشفرة اهتمامًا كبيرًا لهذه التكهنات، وناقشتها بحماس. وقد طبّق الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة CryptoQuant مؤشر مخاطر PCA على مقاييس السلسلة مثل MVRV وSOPR.
#CryptoQuant #sopr #MVRV
$BTC
صرّح يونغ جو، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة كريبتو كوانت، بأن أسعار البيتكوين قد تشهد انخفاضًا خلال الأشهر الستة إلى الاثني عشر القادمة.
يشير نشاط تداول البيتكوين الأخير إلى دخول العملة المشفرة مرحلة توحيد.
يبدو أن سوق العملات المشفرة دخل مرحلة اندماج خلال الأيام القليلة الماضية.
وقد أدى غياب أي تحركات جوهرية إلى حالة من الشك والريبة بين المستثمرين، مما أدى بدوره إلى موجة بيع بين المتداولين على المدى القصير. في غضون ذلك، لا يزال قطاع صناديق الاستثمار المتداولة واحتياطيات العملات المشفرة يشهدان نشاطًا متزايدًا على الرغم من تراجع الأسعار.
وتأكيدًا لأسوأ مخاوف المستثمرين، نشر كي يونغ جو، الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة كريبتو كوانت، تنبؤًا بشأن بيتكوين قبل ساعات قليلة.
ووفقًا لهذا التنبؤ، صرّح جو بأن دورة صعود بيتكوين قد انتهت رسميًا. وأشار أيضًا إلى أنه خلال الأشهر الستة إلى الاثني عشر المقبلة، يمكننا توقع أسعار هبوطية أو جانبية.
أولت مجتمعات العملات المشفرة اهتمامًا كبيرًا لهذه التكهنات، وناقشتها بحماس. وقد طبّق الرئيس التنفيذي لشركة CryptoQuant مؤشر مخاطر PCA على مقاييس السلسلة مثل MVRV وSOPR.
#CryptoQuant #sopr #MVRV
$BTC
🚨 ETHEREUM MVRV FLIPS BULLISH: NEXT LEG UP STARTING?
📈 Breaking: Ethereum's MVRV ratio just crossed into positive territory, signaling:
✅ Early accumulation phase
✅ Historically strong buy zone
✅ Average +82% gains post-cross
💎 Key Metrics:
🔹 Current MVRV: 1.02 (first time >1 since April)
🔹 Price Target: $3,800 based on 30-day MVRV trajectory
🔹 Exchange Reserves: At 5-year lows (supply squeeze incoming)
🚀 3 Smart Moves:
Buy ETH Now → 0% Fee Entry
Trade the Breakout → VIP Futures
Get $50 Free → Boost Trades
✨ Support Our Research:
"If this technical insight helps you profit, consider leaving a tip!"
⚠️ Historical Window: 90-day average return after this
signal: +58%
#Ethereum #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #ETH
📈 Breaking: Ethereum's MVRV ratio just crossed into positive territory, signaling:
✅ Early accumulation phase
✅ Historically strong buy zone
✅ Average +82% gains post-cross
💎 Key Metrics:
🔹 Current MVRV: 1.02 (first time >1 since April)
🔹 Price Target: $3,800 based on 30-day MVRV trajectory
🔹 Exchange Reserves: At 5-year lows (supply squeeze incoming)
🚀 3 Smart Moves:
Buy ETH Now → 0% Fee Entry
Trade the Breakout → VIP Futures
Get $50 Free → Boost Trades
✨ Support Our Research:
"If this technical insight helps you profit, consider leaving a tip!"
⚠️ Historical Window: 90-day average return after this
signal: +58%
#Ethereum #MVRV #TechnicalAnalysis #ETH
❗️Следующие 6–12 месяцев будут медвежьими или покажут боковое движение цен, поскольку бычий цикл биткоина завершен – генеральный директор #CryptoQuant Ки Ён Джу.
Среди индикаторов он отметил соотношение рыночной стоимости к реализованной стоимости (#MVRV ), коэффициент доходности потраченных монет (#SOPR ) и чистую нереализованную прибыль или убыток (#NUPL ) – эти индикаторы показывали поворотные точки и в прошлых рыночных циклах.
💡 Некоторые пользователи напомнили, что в 2020 году CryptoQuant уже давал ложный сигнал на продажу #BTC .
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
Среди индикаторов он отметил соотношение рыночной стоимости к реализованной стоимости (#MVRV ), коэффициент доходности потраченных монет (#SOPR ) и чистую нереализованную прибыль или убыток (#NUPL ) – эти индикаторы показывали поворотные точки и в прошлых рыночных циклах.
💡 Некоторые пользователи напомнили, что в 2020 году CryptoQuant уже давал ложный сигнал на продажу #BTC .
$BTC
$ETH
$BNB
#MVRV
‼️$BTC MVRV Nears Critical Zone ‼️
Short-term holder MVRV is back at ~1.2, a level that’s historically signaled local tops. 📉
Each time $BTC hits this zone, we’ve seen pullbacks or consolidation. Now, the market’s at a crossroads:
🔴 Rejection: Short-term cool-off likely
🟢 Breakout: Momentum could surge
History often rhymes—stay sharp! 👀
‼️$BTC MVRV Nears Critical Zone ‼️
Short-term holder MVRV is back at ~1.2, a level that’s historically signaled local tops. 📉
Each time $BTC hits this zone, we’ve seen pullbacks or consolidation. Now, the market’s at a crossroads:
🔴 Rejection: Short-term cool-off likely
🟢 Breakout: Momentum could surge
History often rhymes—stay sharp! 👀
$XRP Faces #Bearish Pressure as #MVRV Ratio #Signals “Death Cross” Warning
Ripple’s native token, XRP, may be heading toward deeper market turbulence following a bearish signal on its on-chain metrics. According to well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez, XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has just formed a death cross against its 200-day moving average — a technical sign that could point to a sharper price correction ahead.
What is the MVRV Ratio, and Why Does It Matter?
The MVRV Ratio is a widely used on-chain indicator that compares a token’s Market Capitalization with its Realized Capitalization. While market cap is calculated using the current spot price across all circulating tokens, realized cap assesses the aggregate "real" value based on the last on-chain transaction price of each individual coin.
This method offers a more nuanced view of the asset’s true valuation, accounting for investors' historical cost basis rather than just current prices. An MVRV value above 1 implies holders are, on average, in profit, while a ratio below 1 suggests net unrealized losses.
XRP's MVRV Death Cross: What the Chart Shows
In a chart shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Martinez highlights how the daily MVRV Ratio of XRP has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a death cross — a classic bearish signal in technical analysis.
“The MVRV ratio flashed a death cross for XRP, suggesting a steeper correction could be underway!” — Ali Martinez, crypto analyst
This latest crossover marks the second time in 2025 that XRP’s MVRV Ratio has dropped beneath its long-term average. Earlier in the year, a similar move triggered short-term downside volatility before the price stabilized. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen.
XRP #Price Action: Losses Deepen Amid Market Uncertainty
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $3.00, having declined approximately 6.5% in the past week. The dip follows a temporary rebound in July that saw XRP test local highs, only to be met with strong selling pressure..
Ripple’s native token, XRP, may be heading toward deeper market turbulence following a bearish signal on its on-chain metrics. According to well-known crypto analyst Ali Martinez, XRP’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio has just formed a death cross against its 200-day moving average — a technical sign that could point to a sharper price correction ahead.
What is the MVRV Ratio, and Why Does It Matter?
The MVRV Ratio is a widely used on-chain indicator that compares a token’s Market Capitalization with its Realized Capitalization. While market cap is calculated using the current spot price across all circulating tokens, realized cap assesses the aggregate "real" value based on the last on-chain transaction price of each individual coin.
This method offers a more nuanced view of the asset’s true valuation, accounting for investors' historical cost basis rather than just current prices. An MVRV value above 1 implies holders are, on average, in profit, while a ratio below 1 suggests net unrealized losses.
XRP's MVRV Death Cross: What the Chart Shows
In a chart shared on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Martinez highlights how the daily MVRV Ratio of XRP has fallen below its 200-day moving average, forming a death cross — a classic bearish signal in technical analysis.
“The MVRV ratio flashed a death cross for XRP, suggesting a steeper correction could be underway!” — Ali Martinez, crypto analyst
This latest crossover marks the second time in 2025 that XRP’s MVRV Ratio has dropped beneath its long-term average. Earlier in the year, a similar move triggered short-term downside volatility before the price stabilized. Whether history repeats itself remains to be seen.
XRP #Price Action: Losses Deepen Amid Market Uncertainty
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $3.00, having declined approximately 6.5% in the past week. The dip follows a temporary rebound in July that saw XRP test local highs, only to be met with strong selling pressure..
#Bitcoin (BTC) Holds $109K as Short-Term Holders Capitulate but Long-Term Conviction Remains Strong
Bitcoin ($BTC ) has faced weeks of downward pressure after peaking at $124,000 in mid-August, with prices dipping as low as $107,270 before modestly rebounding to $109,540. While short-term holders are showing signs of capitulation, long-term investors continue to demonstrate conviction, suggesting the market may be nearing a turning point.
Bitcoin Price Action: From $124K Peak to $107K Low
After briefly crossing the $124,000 mark three weeks ago, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. As of the latest trading session, #BTC was priced at $109,540, marking a 0.56% daily gain but still reflecting a 3.74% monthly decline.
This retracement mirrors past market cycles, where overheated rallies often invite profit-taking, leading to a sharp but temporary downturn before stabilization.
Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Capitulation
The recent pullback has placed significant pressure on short-term holders (STHs), who often buy during price surges and panic-sell during downturns.
STH MVRV Falls Below 1
According to analyst Burak Kesmeci, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (#MVRV ) ratio dropped below 1 after 132 consecutive days in profit.
MVRV < 1: Indicates STHs are holding at a loss.
Previous instance: The last dip below 1 occurred in February 2025, lasting 58 days and coinciding with a Bitcoin plunge to $79,000.
This decline #signals that many newer investors are now underwater, heightening the risk of panic-driven exits.
Unrealized Profit/Loss Confirms Weakness...
read more 24crypto .news
Bitcoin ($BTC ) has faced weeks of downward pressure after peaking at $124,000 in mid-August, with prices dipping as low as $107,270 before modestly rebounding to $109,540. While short-term holders are showing signs of capitulation, long-term investors continue to demonstrate conviction, suggesting the market may be nearing a turning point.
Bitcoin Price Action: From $124K Peak to $107K Low
After briefly crossing the $124,000 mark three weeks ago, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. As of the latest trading session, #BTC was priced at $109,540, marking a 0.56% daily gain but still reflecting a 3.74% monthly decline.
This retracement mirrors past market cycles, where overheated rallies often invite profit-taking, leading to a sharp but temporary downturn before stabilization.
Short-Term Holders Show Signs of Capitulation
The recent pullback has placed significant pressure on short-term holders (STHs), who often buy during price surges and panic-sell during downturns.
STH MVRV Falls Below 1
According to analyst Burak Kesmeci, the STH Market Value to Realized Value (#MVRV ) ratio dropped below 1 after 132 consecutive days in profit.
MVRV < 1: Indicates STHs are holding at a loss.
Previous instance: The last dip below 1 occurred in February 2025, lasting 58 days and coinciding with a Bitcoin plunge to $79,000.
This decline #signals that many newer investors are now underwater, heightening the risk of panic-driven exits.
Unrealized Profit/Loss Confirms Weakness...
read more 24crypto .news
比特币警告！MVRV 崩塌，跌破 10 万美元指日可待！
💥 比特币回调警报！MVRV崩塌，10万美元支撑悬了？
最近，比特币 [#BTC ] 的市场表现让不少投资者心跳加速📉。MVRV指标跌破了 365天移动均线（SMA365），这通常是周期强度减弱、回调可能延长的信号。短期来看，BTC正面临 12.44万美元附近的回调压力，而市场支撑能否守住 11万美元至10.88万美元，成为投资者最关心的问题。
⚡ MVRV警告：比特币调整可能加剧
#MVRV 比率跌破长期均线，意味着市场上投资者的账面利润正在缩小，长期趋势的韧性有所下降。从2024年3月的 2.77高点 到现在，比特币在达到 124,400美元 的峰值后，势头明显减弱📉。
MVRV趋势低于基准，意味着长期回调风险加大，但同时我们也看到 采用率上升 与 机构需求增加，让市场情况更复杂。这意味着虽然警告信号存在，但资金流入和需求仍能提供一定支撑💡。
🔎 支撑位观察：11万美金的防线
最新行情显示，比特币价格已跌至 110,600美元，突破关键上升趋势线⛔。如果市场无法维持看涨结构，价格可能进一步下探 10.88万美元 附近，甚至逼近 10万美元。
RSI目前为 40.27，接近超卖区，这显示出市场动能疲软，情绪脆弱。尽管如此，历史数据表明，在这些支撑位附近，买家仍有可能提供防守，为价格提供反弹机会📈。
投资者接下来的关键任务，是观察价格能否企稳在 11万至10.88万美元，决定比特币是止跌反弹还是继续调整。
💹 资金流向暗示：现货与期货不同步
过去90天内，现货市场的 CVD（成交量净流） 呈现交替控制，近期交易日偏向卖出。这种现象说明现货市场压力仍大，短期内快速看涨反转难度较高⚡。
当现货资金偏向抛售时，即便出现反弹，也可能被快速回吐。另一方面，ETF和机构资金流入仍为市场提供一定支撑，使整体趋势没有完全崩塌。短期来看，比特币前景喜忧参半：
现货卖出主导 → 反弹难度大机构资金流入 → 提供一定支撑
交易者需要密切关注 买盘力量是否增强，否则突破阻力将越来越困难。
📊 多头仓位高企：风险也在累积
根据币安数据显示，多头仓位占比 64.55%，空头占 35.45%，多空比 1.82。这意味着市场看涨情绪明显，但也暗藏风险⚠️：
多头仓位过高 → 如果价格下跌，可能触发大规模 强制平仓高杠杆交易 → 增加价格波动的风险情绪过于乐观 → 在高波动期容易加速下跌
总结来看，多头仓位虽多，但并不代表安全，投资者仍需谨慎。
🔑 核心结论：守住关键支撑才是关键
比特币的走势喜忧参半，但大方向仍有机会反弹。关键因素如下：
支撑位关键：11万美元至10.88万美元是当前市场最重要的防线💎MVRV崩塌：提醒市场周期强度减弱，短期调整风险加大现货卖出主导：短期反弹可能受限，需要观察买盘力量机构与#etf 资金：仍提供底层支撑，为市场活力加分💪
如果买家能守住关键支撑，比特币可能迎来 新一轮上涨；反之，跌破支撑将加速调整，并可能测试10万美元心理关口。
💡 投资提示
关注 支撑位：11万至10.88万美元观察 现货资金流向 与 期货未平仓合约谨慎控制仓位，避免过度杠杆分批布局，低吸高抛，留足容错空间结合 MVRV、RSI和成交量 进行多指标判断
比特币市场从未简单过。MVRV的崩塌、Taker的卖出占优以及高多头仓位提醒我们，行情波动和风险并存。同时，机构资金流入和ETF潜在审批为市场提供动力。如果买家稳住关键支撑，我们依然有机会看到 新一波牛市起点。
📣 总结一句话：比特币短期或承压，但关键支撑稳住，反弹仍在路上；投资者需保持警惕，抓住低位布局机会，波段操作才是上策！ #ETH走势分析
最近，比特币 [#BTC ] 的市场表现让不少投资者心跳加速📉。MVRV指标跌破了 365天移动均线（SMA365），这通常是周期强度减弱、回调可能延长的信号。短期来看，BTC正面临 12.44万美元附近的回调压力，而市场支撑能否守住 11万美元至10.88万美元，成为投资者最关心的问题。
⚡ MVRV警告：比特币调整可能加剧
#MVRV 比率跌破长期均线，意味着市场上投资者的账面利润正在缩小，长期趋势的韧性有所下降。从2024年3月的 2.77高点 到现在，比特币在达到 124,400美元 的峰值后，势头明显减弱📉。
MVRV趋势低于基准，意味着长期回调风险加大，但同时我们也看到 采用率上升 与 机构需求增加，让市场情况更复杂。这意味着虽然警告信号存在，但资金流入和需求仍能提供一定支撑💡。
🔎 支撑位观察：11万美金的防线
最新行情显示，比特币价格已跌至 110,600美元，突破关键上升趋势线⛔。如果市场无法维持看涨结构，价格可能进一步下探 10.88万美元 附近，甚至逼近 10万美元。
RSI目前为 40.27，接近超卖区，这显示出市场动能疲软，情绪脆弱。尽管如此，历史数据表明，在这些支撑位附近，买家仍有可能提供防守，为价格提供反弹机会📈。
投资者接下来的关键任务，是观察价格能否企稳在 11万至10.88万美元，决定比特币是止跌反弹还是继续调整。
💹 资金流向暗示：现货与期货不同步
过去90天内，现货市场的 CVD（成交量净流） 呈现交替控制，近期交易日偏向卖出。这种现象说明现货市场压力仍大，短期内快速看涨反转难度较高⚡。
当现货资金偏向抛售时，即便出现反弹，也可能被快速回吐。另一方面，ETF和机构资金流入仍为市场提供一定支撑，使整体趋势没有完全崩塌。短期来看，比特币前景喜忧参半：
现货卖出主导 → 反弹难度大机构资金流入 → 提供一定支撑
交易者需要密切关注 买盘力量是否增强，否则突破阻力将越来越困难。
📊 多头仓位高企：风险也在累积
根据币安数据显示，多头仓位占比 64.55%，空头占 35.45%，多空比 1.82。这意味着市场看涨情绪明显，但也暗藏风险⚠️：
多头仓位过高 → 如果价格下跌，可能触发大规模 强制平仓高杠杆交易 → 增加价格波动的风险情绪过于乐观 → 在高波动期容易加速下跌
总结来看，多头仓位虽多，但并不代表安全，投资者仍需谨慎。
🔑 核心结论：守住关键支撑才是关键
比特币的走势喜忧参半，但大方向仍有机会反弹。关键因素如下：
支撑位关键：11万美元至10.88万美元是当前市场最重要的防线💎MVRV崩塌：提醒市场周期强度减弱，短期调整风险加大现货卖出主导：短期反弹可能受限，需要观察买盘力量机构与#etf 资金：仍提供底层支撑，为市场活力加分💪
如果买家能守住关键支撑，比特币可能迎来 新一轮上涨；反之，跌破支撑将加速调整，并可能测试10万美元心理关口。
💡 投资提示
关注 支撑位：11万至10.88万美元观察 现货资金流向 与 期货未平仓合约谨慎控制仓位，避免过度杠杆分批布局，低吸高抛，留足容错空间结合 MVRV、RSI和成交量 进行多指标判断
比特币市场从未简单过。MVRV的崩塌、Taker的卖出占优以及高多头仓位提醒我们，行情波动和风险并存。同时，机构资金流入和ETF潜在审批为市场提供动力。如果买家稳住关键支撑，我们依然有机会看到 新一波牛市起点。
📣 总结一句话：比特币短期或承压，但关键支撑稳住，反弹仍在路上；投资者需保持警惕，抓住低位布局机会，波段操作才是上策！ #ETH走势分析
နောက်ထပ်အကြောင်းအရာများကို စူးစမ်းလေ့လာရန် အကောင့်ဝင်ပါ