signals

Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is staging a strong rally this month, following the first green month (March) after 5 straight red. So is this the bottom? Not quite based on the Halving Cycle's Theory.
On this chart you can see that since the July 2016 Halving, every Bull Cycle Top was priced on the 0.382 Time Fibonacci level (red circle) between Halving dates. Similarly the Bear Cycle Bottoms were priced on the 0.618 Time Fib (green circle).
Right now the market found Support exactly on the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) with the previous Bear Cycle bottoming just above the 1M MA100 (green trend-line). The last Cycle Top was priced exactly on the 0.382 Fib and the next 0.618 is on October 2026 based on the expected April 2028 Halving.
So based on this highly effective model, the current 2026 Bear Cycle should bottom this October, which is consistent with the majority of analyses and models we've used. Technically is should test the 1M MA100 as well, so (again consistent with our past analyses) this should be closer to $40000.
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There has been some confusion lately on whether Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is still on a Bear Cycle or not. Some still go as far as claiming that the market never entered a Bear Cycle and that based on some custom Liquidity Cycles that the -50% October - February crash has just been a 'normal' correction within a wider Bull Cycle. That is why today we decided to go back to the basics.
On the left side of the chart you see a clear Bull Cycle. Starting on a Bear Cycle bottom with the price confirming the Bull Cycle by breaking and closing above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which up until that point has been the Bear Cycle's Resistance. What follows is a clear long-term uptrend with a streak of Bull Flags supported by the 1W MA50 until the eventual Bull Cycle Top.
On the right side of the chart you see a clear Bear Cycle. Starting on that exact Bull Cycle Top with the price confirming the Bear Cycle by breaking and closing below the 1W MA50, which up until that point (as mentioned) has been the Bull Cycle's Support. What followed up until today is a 6-month downtrend with so far two Bear Flags suppressed below the 1W MA50. The next Support in line is the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
And that's the structural difference between a Bull and a Bear Cycle. Same only inverse. So what BTC is currently at is a Bear Flag that is gearing up for the new Leg downwards. For reference we have taken the post June 2022 fractal (black trend-line) and added it as price action on the current Bear Cycle to see a projection of how it may unfold on a potential October 2026 bottom according to the 4-year Cycle Theory.
So that's it. Nothing more. If that helps a little clearing up the (understandable) confusion, I'd appreciate you telling us.
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Cardano (ADAUSD) has been within a Bear Cycle since its December 02 2024 High and within a Channel Down since the August 11 2025 High. This Channel Down is technically the Bearish Leg of the 5-year pattern that started since the previous Bear Cycle.
So far it has been very similar to the 2022 one and based on the 1W RSI Bullish Divergence, we might be in a similar spot as June 2022. Depending on how strong the rest of the market drops, ADA can repeat a -92.30% Bearish Leg, targeting at least $0.1000.
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