bitcoin

Автор новости: Crypto Emergency
Биткоин уже несколько недель торгуется в диапазоне $84 200–$93 500, не сумев закрепиться выше верхней границы. 15 декабря курс опустился до $85 129 на Binance — это коррекция на 22,7% от исторического максимума октября.

Массовые продажи или рыночная механика?
Web3-разработчик Tracer сообщил о масштабных сделках крупнейших игроков. По его данным, Binance продала 4 173 BTC, Coinbase — 2 370 BTC, Wintermute — 1 526 BTC, а BitMEX — 7 516 BTC. В итоге рынок получил предложение биткоинов на сумму свыше $2 млрд.

Некоторые аналитики называют происходящее «организованным дампом», однако подобные движения часто объясняются обычной рыночной динамикой: крупные держатели и маркет-мейкеры регулярно корректируют позиции, реагируя на спрос, ликвидность и технические сигналы.

Технические индикаторы намекают на разворот
Трейдер Михаэль ван де Поппе отметил редкий сигнал: индекс относительной силы (RSI) биткоина к золоту опустился ниже 30 — всего четвертый раз в истории. Ранее такие случаи совпадали с важными ценовыми минимумами (2015, 2018, 2022).

«Золото переоценено относительно биткоина, и скоро капитал начнёт перетекать в криптовалюту», — считает аналитик. Он также обратил внимание на разрыв между текущей ценой и 20-недельной скользящей средней.

Ликвидность растёт, но BTC реагирует слабо
По наблюдениям трейдера Daan Crypto Trades, биткоин показывает слабую корреляцию с глобальной ликвидностью. Это может быть связано с продажами в рамках четырёхлетнего цикла и фиксацией налоговых убытков в конце года. Первые месяцы 2026-го станут проверкой: сможет ли BTC выйти из привычной цикличности.

Скользящие средние сходятся
Аналитик Rekt Capital отметил сближение 21-недельной и 50-недельной EMA. Их пересечение ожидается в середине января и исторически сигнализировало о краткосрочных фазах восстановления перед новым снижением.

Итог
Биткоин остаётся в установленном коридоре, а рынок пока не готов к устойчивому росту. Технические индикаторы указывают на возможные развороты, но окончательный ответ рынок даст в первом квартале нового года.

Взгляд ИИ
Текущая коррекция может отражать не слабость актива, а перебалансировку портфелей институциональных инвесторов перед новым налоговым годом. Декабрь традиционно становится месяцем технических продаж, создавая давление на рисковые активы. Рост доли институционалов меняет привычные рыночные паттерны, и биткоин может находиться в фазе формирования новых механизмов ценообразования.
#bitcoin  #BTC  #CryptoNews  #CryptoMarket  #blockchain  

El análisis de #bitcoin muestra una presión bajista a corto plazo, confirmada por varios indicadores. $BTC
Precio Actual: $86,170.68.
Situación General: Presión a la baja después de no poder mantener el nivel de $90,000.
Puntos Clave (Señales Bajistas):
EMA (20) cruzando por debajo de EMA (50). Esta es una señal de cambio de tendencia a corto plazo.
MACD (DIF y DEA): Ambas líneas están en territorio negativo y el MACD es de -285.47, lo que indica una fuerte inercia bajista.
RSI (6): Con un valor de 18.88, el RSI está en zona de sobreventa extrema. Esto podría indicar un rebote inminente, pero por ahora la tendencia es débil.
Mínimo de 24h: Se ha tocado un mínimo de 85,146.64.
"Mientras que el activo con Target en 0.00417 muestra una configuración técnica ideal para una COMPRA (Bandera Alcista confirmada), BTC está en una fase de fuerte corrección, con indicadores en sobreventa extrema (RSI 18.88). Mantente atento a un posible rebote de $BTC en los próximos días, pero por ahora, la presión es bajista.
¡Si eres inversor a largo plazo, puedes considerar empezar a acumular (COMPRAR) debido a la sobreventa. Si eres un trader, espera una confirmación de rebote (como que el RSI salga de sobreventa o un cambio de tendencia en el gráfico de 1h/4h) antes de entrar.!! $BTC

#bitcoin
Теперь, когда появилось немного свободного времени, я хочу рассказать вам об одной из причин, почему я жду очередную волну снижения биткоина в период с 18 по 22 декабря 2025 года.

На графике ниже я отметил дни, когда Япония повышала ставку:

Я ожидаю повышения ставки, а вместе с ним — негативной реакции биткоина в виде снижения.

CRITICAL MOMENT: $BTC is hovering near key support at $81,500 as a whale moves 4,000 BTC, or roughly $348 million, to Binance, raising fresh questions about selling pressure. Defensive support here decides the next trend. Bulls must hold this line.
Context in a Nutshell
Bitcoin is currently trading at a pivotal juncture, with the market pressing one of its most closely watched long-term supports near $81,500, a gauge of average cost for active investors. The on-chain activity surge coincided with two wallets tied to Matrixport moving 4,000 BTC or roughly $348 million to Binance, raising fresh questions about selling pressure. This critical moment has traders watching whether support holds or cracks.
What You Should Know
Bitcoin's price is testing critical structural support near $81,500, a level tied to the True Market Mean. The level is the average cost basis of active investors, and has historically served as a line in the sand for trend shifts.A large whale, probably two wallets linked to Matrixport, transferred 4,000 BTC, about $348 million, to Binance, raising alarm about potential selling pressure.Spot price action has been choppy and range-bound, with traders eyeing resistance around $94,000 and support around $84,000–$85,000 for directional clues.On-chain metrics like the AVIV Ratio are at levels seen near past mid-cycle inflection points, periods of consolidation before either rebound or deeper drawdown.
Why Does This Matter?
When Bitcoin straddles long-term structural levels, it creates a decision point: defending key support can stabilize liquidity and revive confidence, while a break could reignite downside momentum and prompt a search for lower support. The whale transfer adds fuel to this debate; large inflows to exchanges often correlate with distribution or hedging behavior. Whether this signals panic selling or strategic positioning matters for market psychology.
BTC's next directional move likely hinges on whether this support holds, and how the market interprets this whale's intentions. A break below could reshape narratives for weeks to come.
#bitcoin #BTC

يتوقع أن يرفع بنك اليابان (BoJ) أسعار الفائدة بمقدار 25 نقطة أساس لتصل إلى 0.75% يوم 19 ديسمبر، وهو أعلى مستوى منذ 30 عامًا. هذا الحدث التاريخي لا يؤثر فقط على الأسواق اليابانية، بل يشكل إشارة هبوط قوية لبيتكوين والعملات الرقمية.
📊 الدليل التاريخي
الزيادات السابقة في أسعار الفائدة من بنك اليابان أدت دائمًا إلى موجات بيع حادة في بيتكوين:
مارس 2024 → انخفاض 23%
يوليو 2024 → انخفاض 26%
يناير 2025 → انخفاض ~31%
إذا تكرر هذا النمط، انخفاض بيتكوين من مستويات ~94 ألف دولار قد يضعه في نطاق 70–75 ألف دولار.
🔍 لماذا تؤثر زيادة بنك اليابان على الكريبتو؟
يحدث ذلك عبر ما يعرف بـ "yen carry trade":
المستثمرون كانوا يقترضون الين الرخيص للاستثمار في أصول عالية المخاطر مثل بيتكوين.
رفع الفائدة يجعل الاقتراض بالين أغلى، مما يجبر المستثمرين على إغلاق مراكزهم المرفوعة.
هذا يؤدي إلى سحب السيولة العالمية ويؤثر على جميع الأصول عالية المخاطر، مع تأثر العملات الرقمية أولًا.
⚠️ ما يجب مراقبته
بعض المحللين يقولون إن الأسواق قد تكون قد استوعبت الزيادة مسبقًا، لكن التاريخ يظهر ارتباطًا قويًا جدًا بين قرارات بنك اليابان وهبوط بيتكوين.
العملات الرقمية عالية المخاطر مثل BEAT وGUN من المرجح أن تتعرض لضغوط بيع أقوى في حال حدوث هبوط حاد.
💡 الخلاصة: إذا كرر التاريخ نفسه، فقد يكون الأسبوع القادم أسودًا للعملات الرقمية. المستثمرون بحاجة لمتابعة السوق بحذر واتخاذ قرارات استثمارية محسوبة.
إذا أحببت، يمكنني بعد ذلك أن أصنع نسخة غرافيكية جذابة قصيرة مع أرقام وسهم هبوط تصلح للنشر على Binance Square لجذب الانتباه بصريًا. هل تريد أن أفعل ذلك؟

#bitcoin #BTC #BankOfJapan #BoJ #GUN

Bitcoin pushing toward the $100,000 mark before 2026 is no longer a fringe idea. It’s a question increasingly priced into prediction markets, debated by macro investors, and quietly supported by structural shifts happening across global finance.
So what are the markets really telling us—and how realistic is a $100K BTC in the next cycle?
What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In
Prediction markets thrive on probabilities, not narratives. Right now, odds around Bitcoin hitting $100K before 2026 are mixed but notably elevated compared to previous cycles at similar price levels.
This matters because these markets aggregate sentiment from traders willing to put capital behind a belief. The takeaway isn’t that $100K is guaranteed—but that it’s no longer considered an outlier scenario. The base case has shifted upward.
Volatility in these odds often tracks macro data releases and ETF flow updates, which tells us one thing clearly: Bitcoin is being treated less like a speculative asset and more like a macro-sensitive instrument.
Macro Signals: The Bigger Forces at Play
1. Inflation and Monetary Policy
Sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts continue to shape risk appetite. While tighter policy can suppress speculative excess in the short term, it strengthens Bitcoin’s long-term thesis as a hedge against monetary debasement—especially if real yields begin to roll over.
2. Federal Reserve Direction
Markets are forward-looking. Even the expectation of easing conditions has historically benefited Bitcoin. If the Fed pivots or signals sustained neutrality heading into 2025, liquidity conditions could turn favorable fast.
3. ETF Flows and Institutional Access
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have fundamentally changed demand dynamics. Capital that previously couldn’t touch BTC now has regulated access. Sustained inflows don’t just support price—they compress downside volatility and legitimize higher valuation bands.
Standard Chartered recently reiterated a $100K Bitcoin target, halving their 2025 projection but maintaining a strong long-term bull case. That nuance matters: the thesis isn’t about straight-line price action, but structural adoption over time.
Supply Dynamics Still Matter
Bitcoin’s fixed supply hasn’t changed—but demand vectors have. Post-halving issuance is lower, long-term holders remain historically inactive, and institutional accumulation absorbs dips faster than in prior cycles.
When supply tightens in an environment of improving liquidity, price discovery tends to be aggressive.
What I’m Watching Closely
ETF net inflows vs. miner sell pressureFed language around neutral ratesInflation surprises (both up and down)Prediction market probability shifts during macro events
None of these alone will push Bitcoin to $100K. But together, they form a backdrop that makes the level plausible—not speculative fantasy.
So, Will Bitcoin Break $100K Before 2026?
It’s not a question of hype anymore. It’s a question of timing, liquidity, and macro alignment.
Prediction markets aren’t screaming certainty—but they’re no longer skeptical. Macro trends are no longer hostile. And structurally, Bitcoin is better positioned than at any point in its history.
$100K isn’t guaranteed. But it is increasingly defensible.
For real-time price tracking, I keep an eye on Bitcoin here:
https://www.binance.com/en-in/price/bitcoin

$BTC

#USNonFarmPayrollReport #Binance #bitcoin

Let’s analyze Bitcoin’s weekly (1W) market structure to understand what could happen next.

Based on the current structure, there are two possible scenarios—one bullish and one bearish.
Scenario 1: Bitcoin Creates a New All-Time High (Bullish Case)

As shown in the chart, Bitcoin may continue its pullback without breaking the key higher low at $74,243.

If buyers successfully defend this level, price could reverse from here and move upward to create:
A new all-time high, orA higher high, continuing the broader bullish trend.
This scenario keeps the weekly structure bullish.

Scenario 2: Trend Shift to Bearish (Bearish Case)

In this scenario, buyers fail to protect the higher low at $74,243 due to reduced buying interest and increased selling pressure.

If Bitcoin breaks below this level:
A lower low will be formedThe market structure shifts from bullish to bearish
This would signal a potential long-term downtrend.

What Traders and Investors Should Focus On
Proper risk managementStaking spot holdings where applicableReducing exposure during uncertaintyApplying DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) correctlyFollowing the trend, not emotions

Conclusion
Market structure always tells the story before the price does.

If you understand this analysis, support the post and share your thoughts in the comments.
Remember: The trend is your friend.
#bitcoin #TrumpTariffs $SOL

If you've got Bitcoin in your portfolio right now, this Friday might be one of the most crucial days you'll face in 2025. Something's brewing in Tokyo that could send shockwaves through global markets, and cryptocurrency could take a serious hit.
The Bank of Japan's Game-Changing Move
This Friday, December 19th, financial analysts worldwide are watching Japan closely. The Bank of Japan is expected to announce an interest rate increase, and the implications could be massive for anyone holding digital assets.
For context, Japan has maintained extraordinarily low interest rates for years – sometimes even in negative territory. This policy was designed to stimulate economic growth by keeping money cheap and accessible. But times are changing.
Why This Matters More Than You Think
Inflation has been creeping up in Japan, and the yen has been losing ground against the dollar. To address these concerns, the central bank is signaling a shift in monetary policy. Economic experts are predicting a rate adjustment that would push borrowing costs to levels we haven't seen in decades.
While a quarter-point increase might seem minor on paper, in today's interconnected financial world, it represents a significant departure from the status quo.
The Direct Connection to Your Crypto Holdings
Here's where things get real for Bitcoin holders. Cryptocurrency markets thrive in environments where money flows freely and capital is cheap. When major central banks tighten their monetary policies, several things happen simultaneously:
Liquidity starts drying up. Borrowing becomes more expensive. Investors begin pulling away from assets they consider risky. And unfortunately, Bitcoin often falls into that high-risk category during uncertain times.
We've witnessed this pattern before. Back in 2022, when the Federal Reserve aggressively raised interest rates in the United States, Bitcoin experienced a devastating decline. Prices tumbled from over $60,000 down to below $20,000 within months. That wasn't an isolated incident – it was part of a broader global response to tightening monetary conditions.
Japan's Global Economic Influence
As the world's third-largest economy, Japan's financial decisions create ripples that extend far beyond its borders. A stronger yen resulting from higher interest rates could trigger what traders call "carry trade unwinding."
Here's how that works: Investors have been borrowing money in yen at extremely low rates, then investing that borrowed capital into higher-yielding opportunities – including US stocks, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. When interest rates rise in Japan, this strategy becomes less profitable, forcing investors to reverse these trades. That means selling positions across multiple markets, including digital currencies.
Current Market Vulnerability
Bitcoin has been hovering around the $100,000 mark recently, but volatility has been noticeable. If Japan follows through with this rate adjustment (and multiple sources suggest it's highly likely), we could see a shift toward risk-averse investing behavior globally.
Hedge funds might start liquidating positions to protect their portfolios. Retail traders using leverage could face margin calls. The resulting selling pressure could trigger a price cascade that catches many investors off guard.
Beyond Individual Portfolios
This situation matters for reasons that extend beyond personal gains or losses. Bitcoin has evolved into a multi-trillion-dollar asset class now. It's connected to exchange-traded funds, institutional investment portfolios, and even national treasuries in some countries.
A sharp price correction could:
Slow down mainstream adoption momentumPut financial pressure on mining operations if prices fall below operational costsProvide additional ammunition for regulators pushing for stricter oversightTest the resolve of long-term believers and institutional holders
The Silver Lining Perspective
However, if you're someone who believes in Bitcoin's long-term potential rather than short-term price movements, market corrections can present opportunities. Lower prices mean better entry points for accumulation. Patient investors who've studied previous market cycles understand that volatility works both ways.
Preparing for What's Ahead
The key takeaway here isn't about panic or fear. It's about awareness and preparation. Understanding how traditional financial systems impact cryptocurrency markets helps you make informed decisions rather than emotional reactions.
Whether Friday's announcement triggers immediate market movement or creates a delayed response over the following weeks, being informed puts you ahead of those who only react after prices have already moved.
Keep your eyes on the news coming out of Tokyo this Friday. Watch how Bitcoin responds in the 24-48 hours following the announcement. And most importantly, have a plan for your positions regardless of which direction the market moves.
The intersection of traditional finance and cryptocurrency has never been more relevant than it is right now. What happens in central bank meeting rooms halfway around the world can directly impact the digital assets sitting in your wallet.
Stay informed, stay prepared, and remember that in volatile markets, knowledge truly is power.

#bitcoin #cryptocurrency #BankOfJapan