#crypto #Geopolitics #stock 📉
$BTC Holds at $70,500: Geopolitics, Oil, and Crypto Markets
This morning, the crypto market reacted to the escalation of the situation in the Middle East by falling. Here are the main points you need to know:
🚢 Diplomatic stalemate and blockade
The talks between the US and Iran in Islamabad ended without agreements. Immediately after that, the US announced restrictions on maritime traffic in Iranian ports. Although the Strait of Hormuz remains open for transit to other countries, the market perceived this as a serious escalation.
🛢 Oil is flying up, risky assets are down
• Brent jumped 8%, again crossing the $103 per barrel mark.
• Stock indices: S&P 500 and Dow Jones lost about 1%, Nasdaq — 1.3%.
• Bitcoin: Fell from early highs ($74,000+) to $70,540 before recovering slightly to $70,877.
📊 What do the numbers and analysts say?
• Selling pressure: According to Glassnode, about 13.5 million addresses are currently in losses. This creates a "wall" of selling during attempts to grow, as people strive to break even.
• Liquidations: Exchanges (including Binance) have seen a surge in short positions. Negative funding rates hint at the possibility of a "short squeeze", but in bearish conditions, they are usually short-lived.
• Light at the end of the tunnel: Institutional demand remains stable. Bitcoin-ETFs attracted $786 million last week (the lion's share in BlackRock). This is the main factor preventing the price from falling much below $70k.
🧐 What's next?
The market is currently in the $70,000–$80,000 range with low liquidity. Further movement will depend on three factors:
1. Will the ceasefire hold until April 22nd?
2. Will ETFs continue to absorb supply?
3. Energy price dynamics, which directly affect US inflation expectations.
📊 Key support: $70,500–$71,000. If we hold, there is a chance of a return to $73,000. If not, the consolidation will be delayed.