Great question 👍. In futures trading, the ability to know whether the market is more likely to go up (long) or down (short) comes from market direction analysis. Professional traders don’t guess — they use a mix of price action, technical indicators, and market structure.

Here’s a step-by-step approach you can follow:

🔑 1. Start with Higher Timeframes (Trend Direction)

Look at Daily (1D) or 4H chart first.

If price is making higher highs and higher lows → uptrend (look for longs).

If price is making lower highs and lower lows → downtrend (look for shorts).

👉 Example: If BTC is trending up on daily, then in smaller timeframes you look for buy entries.

🔑 2. Confirm with Market Structure

Break of Structure (BOS): If price breaks above a resistance level and retests → bullish sign.

Liquidity grab: Price may spike below support or above resistance before reversing.

🔑 3. Use Indicators as Confirmation (Not as main signal)

Moving Averages (MA 50 & 200):

Price above both → uptrend.

Price below both → downtrend.

RSI (Relative Strength Index):

RSI above 50 → momentum up.

RSI below 50 → momentum down.

MACD Crossovers: Bullish when blue line crosses above orange, bearish when opposite.

🔑 4. Check Volume & Breakouts

Rising volume + breakout above resistance = strong bullish move.

Rising volume + breakdown below support = strong bearish move.

🔑 5. Use Smaller Timeframe for Entry (Precision)

After higher timeframe confirms direction, go to 15M or 5M to find entry.

Wait for:

Retest of broken support/resistance.

Candlestick reversal pattern (engulfing, hammer, shooting star).

🔑 6. News & Liquidity Events

Check economic calendar (e.g., CPI, FOMC, interest rate news).

Sudden wicks often mean liquidity hunts before true direction starts.

✅ Rule of thumb for futures traders:

Higher timeframe gives direction (bias)

Lower timeframe gives entry (execution)

⚠️ Remember: No system gives 100% accuracy. Professionals don’t try to be right always — they manage risk with stop loss and position sizing.

Would you like me to create for you a practical checklist/flowchart (step-by-step) that tells you:

👉 “If this happens → Buy Long” or “If this happens → Sell Short” for your futures trading?