I just pulled up the RBOB Gasoline futures chart, and the numbers are climbing. Gasoline just hit its highest price since 2022 trading around $3.39 per gallon, up nearly 85 cents from the lows of late 2023. The chart shows a steady grind higher since the start of the Iran conflict, with a sharp vertical move in March and another leg up in April.
What's driving this? Supply disruptions, plain and simple. The Strait of Hormuz traffic is still limited, US refineries are running flat out, and global demand hasn't cracked. Even with the ceasefire talk, the market is pricing in a risk premium. Gas at the pump has followed, with the national average now pushing toward $4.00 in many states.
From my point of view, this is a gut punch for consumers and a headache for the Fed. Higher gas means higher inflation transportation costs ripple through everything. The personal savings rate is already near record lows. If gas stays above $3.50, it's going to hit discretionary spending hard. And that means the Fed can't even think about cutting rates. The "higher for longer" narrative just got another data point.
For crypto, this is a mixed signal. Higher inflation is theoretically bullish for hard assets like Bitcoin, but the immediate effect is tighter liquidity and risk‑off sentiment. I'm watching the energy markets as closely as the Fed. Gas at $3.90 would be a problem. $4.50 would be a crisis. For now, $3.39 is bad enough. The pain at the pump is real and it's not going away anytime soon.
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