$BTC — FOMC Bear Market Analysis
Seven FOMC meetings into this bear market, and the pattern is hard to ignore.
Out of those 7, Bitcoin has dumped on the open 6 times. The one exception? It pumped on the open before selling off later — exactly in line with expectations at the time. That's a 6/7 dump rate. With the 8th FOMC on June 17th, the odds are not in the bulls' favor.
My read: June 17th prints the lower high of this range, and we begin the next leg down from there.
Price targets on the downside — Low 50Ks.
On the upside, max extension I'm watching is $68K–$70K. Anything above $70K is a free short with the same downside target in mind.
As for positioning — I'll be adding to shorts below a key level and scaling in higher if price pushes up, specifically to avoid getting frontrun on entries. I'll share more detail as we get closer.
The structure is bearish. The FOMC data backs it. Manage risk accordingly.
Seven FOMC meetings into this bear market, and the pattern is hard to ignore.
Out of those 7, Bitcoin has dumped on the open 6 times. The one exception? It pumped on the open before selling off later — exactly in line with expectations at the time. That's a 6/7 dump rate. With the 8th FOMC on June 17th, the odds are not in the bulls' favor.
My read: June 17th prints the lower high of this range, and we begin the next leg down from there.
Price targets on the downside — Low 50Ks.
On the upside, max extension I'm watching is $68K–$70K. Anything above $70K is a free short with the same downside target in mind.
As for positioning — I'll be adding to shorts below a key level and scaling in higher if price pushes up, specifically to avoid getting frontrun on entries. I'll share more detail as we get closer.
The structure is bearish. The FOMC data backs it. Manage risk accordingly.