Markets remain cautious amid mixed signals on liquidity and macro risk. The Federal Reserve’s surprise hawkish comments triggered concerns, though hopes for a rate cut keep Bitcoin modestly supported. Liquidity injections from the Fed and easing global policies suggest potential for continued rebound but overall sentiment stays wary:
Macro News Events
- US Federal Reserve ended multi-year quantitative tightening and injected $13.5 billion in liquidity.
- Bank of Japan is preparing a rate hike Dec 18-19th, pressuring Yen carry trades and liquidity conditions.
- Surplus Treasury cash (~$90 billion above normal) is likely to improve financing conditions and support risk assets.
- White House Advisor Hassett says it's time for the Federal Reserve to cautiously start cutting rates.
Crypto News Events
- The Ethereum network is facing validator participation drop and outages post-Fusaka upgrade; Prysm clients advised to disable.
- XRP ETFs near $1 billion in inflows, surpassing Solana ETFs in institutional demand.
- Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows while ETH show negative, further emphasizing the post-network issues.
- Twenty One Capital to list on NYSE with ~$4 billion BTC treasury, marking institutional shift in Bitcoin exposure.
Upcoming Events
- Dec 10th - FOMC Meeting
- Dec 10th - CPI Data
- Dec 11th - PPI Data
- Dec 11-13th - Solana Breakpoint
- Dec 16th - Nonfarm Payrolls
- Dec 18th – Bank of England MPC Meeting + Rate Decision
- Dec 18-19th - Bank of Japan Policy Meeting
- Dec 30th - FOMC Minutes
Summary ✍️
The crypto market is digesting a mix of supportive liquidity injections and technical vulnerabilities particularly in Ethereum post-upgrade. Bitcoin’s recovery remains fragile, weighed by mixed ETF flows, bearish warnings, and macro uncertainty but underpinned by low exchange supply and institutional interest. XRP’s strong ETF inflows highlight shifting institutional attention, while Ethereum’s network issues pose near-term challenges amid longer-term tokenization optimism. Overall market tone is cautious but bottoming signals are increasingly cited as we near another rate cut Dec 10th.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
$BTC continues to make higher lows on the Daily, although we still have bearish divergence on the StochRSI with it slightly overbought, but it should finish playing out over the next few days + the RSI is starting to curve to the upside. As long as we can maintain a daily close above 86.4k for a higher low, I remain bullish. Major support is 86.7k and 84.7k while major resistance is 94k-96k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
$ETH is still playing out its bearish divergence as well but is technically still within its double bottom pattern if it can hold above 3030. The RSI is slightly flat, indicating indecision, so I would expect more chop over the next few days, especially as the issues with the Fusaka upgrade get resolved. It's the weekend so be mindful of heightened volatility in both directions. Major support remains 2930, 2820, and 2680, while major resistance remains 3270 and 3500-3600.
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