Bitcoin has extended its post-FOMC correction, dropping ~13% in the last 30 days and ~4% this week. The move still fits inside a slow, controlled pullback since the October peak — but two key on-chain signals now suggest the correction may be nearing its end.
📊 Two Bullish On-Chain Shifts Emerging
1. Short-Term Holder Capitulation
CryptoQuant data shows short-term holders are now sitting on heavy realized losses — a pattern that usually appears near the end of corrections.
HODL Waves confirm this: the 1d–1w cohort dropped from 6.2% to 2% of supply — a massive 68% decline, signaling aggressive short-term selling and late-stage exhaustion.
2. Exchange Flows Flip Strongly Bullish
Exchange Net Position Change has shifted from inflows to solid outflows:
Nov 27: +5,103 BTC (inflows)
Dec 10: –43,292 BTC (outflows)
This >8× flip mirrors the pattern seen in late September — right before Bitcoin rallied to a new all-time high above $126K.
The same setup is forming again.
📈 Price Needs Just a 4% Move to Break Out
Bitcoin is trading inside a symmetrical triangle on the daily chart — a weak structure that needs only a small push to break.
Key breakout level:
$94,140 → A daily close above this level opens the door to $97,320 and $101,850.
Support levels to watch:
First support: $90,180
Next support: $87,010
Major downside invalidation: $80,640
🔎 Market Outlook
The structure is still neutral — but improving.
Short-term capitulation + strong outflows give Bitcoin a real chance to end its correction. All it needs now is that 4% breakout.
