This Week Could Set Crypto’s Direction
Macro is firmly back in control, and the next few days may decide whether crypto gets relief or more pressure.
Tuesday (Dec 16) brings the U.S. Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payrolls. These numbers reveal how resilient the economy really is. A softer labor market strengthens the case for rate cuts, while strong job data keeps rates higher for longer.
Wednesday (Dec 17) features three Federal Reserve speakers. Markets will focus less on headlines and more on tone. Any hint of shifting views on inflation or growth can quickly move expectations, especially in liquidity-sensitive assets like crypto.
Thursday (Dec 18) is the key event: CPI and Core CPI. If inflation cools, expectations for earlier easing return. If inflation reaccelerates, January rate-cut hopes fade quickly.
Friday (Dec 19) stacks multiple volatility triggers — the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, stock market triple witching, and roughly $3B in BTC and ETH options expiring — all of which can amplify price swings.
Where the market stands:
January rate-cut expectations are mostly priced out.
What could change everything:
Cooler inflation alongside rising unemployment would boost rate-cut odds, improve liquidity expectations, and support risk assets like crypto.
The risk:
Sticky or rising inflation keeps rates higher for longer and can trigger sharp volatility.
This isn’t just another data week.
It’s a potential turning point for crypto.
