Grayscale suggests that Bitcoin’s next all-time high may arrive in H1 2026, not necessarily in 2025. This view challenges the traditional four-year cycle narrative and points to a structurally extended market cycle.
The reasoning is straightforward: post-halving supply dynamics take time to fully materialize, while institutional demand is entering the market through regulated vehicles such as spot ETFs. Rather than accelerating the cycle, these forces may be lengthening it.
Key Takeaways • Bitcoin’s macro peak could extend into the first half of 2026
• Post-halving supply constraints often play out with a delay
• ETFs and institutional capital introduce steadier, long-term demand
• Volatility and pullbacks remain likely, but the broader trend may persist
Why This Matters If this thesis holds, the primary risk is not an imminent market top — but mis-timing exposure based on outdated cycle assumptions. As Bitcoin transitions toward institutional adoption, its market rhythm may shift from sharp boom-bust phases to longer, more complex expansion cycles.
Bitcoin may not be late in this cycle.
It may still be in progress.
