BoJ ETF Sell-Off: The Bank of Japan plans to start selling its $534B (83T yen) ETF holdings from January 2026, marking a historic policy shift.
Slow Exit Strategy: Sales will be gradual (~330B yen per year) to avoid market disruption, potentially lasting decades.
Rate Hike Incoming: Markets expect a 25 bps rate hike to 0.75%, Japan’s highest rate in nearly 20 years.
Carry Trade Unwinds: Rising Japanese yields weaken the yen carry trade, reducing cheap leverage used in risk assets, including crypto.
Bitcoin Under Pressure: BTC has dipped below $90K, reflecting tightening global liquidity, though the move was largely anticipated.
Global Liquidity Impact: BoJ’s actions could reshape capital flows worldwide as Japan pulls back while Western Bitcoin ETFs gain traction.
Looking Ahead: 2026 may be a stress test for crypto, favoring the most resilient assets and players.
