My $PIPPIN
Thesis: Why Shorting Is Dangerous Right Now
At the moment, spot flow is the only thing that matters for $PIPPIN.
The controlling entity holds roughly 83–85% of total supply. With a market cap around $415M, that leaves only about $85M of theoretical free float.
In practice, the sellable float is even smaller. After factoring in burned tokens, dead wallets, and market-making pools (roughly 5–8% of supply), the actual tradable float is likely just 5–7%.
At current prices, that translates to only $25–35M of real spot selling pressure needed to keep price supported — a very small amount relative to existing positioning.
On top of that:
Longs are earning ~0.8% funding per hour
Shorts continue to get squeezed as long as price remains bid
This creates a strong incentive for price stability or continuation higher.
When does shorting make sense?
Shorts only become attractive if we see:
A major liquidation wick, or
That same 5–7% float expands to near nine figures, implying a $1.5B–$2.5B market cap
Below that range, the risk–reward on shorts is unfavorable, in my view. Yes, the top could come sooner — but that’s a pure degen bet, not a structured trade.
Final note:
Do not trade this with size. Always assume price can go another 10x above your short entry.
Risk management > being right.
DYOR | NFA | $SOL
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