The clock is ticking for Bitcoin investors. As the year 2025 hurtles toward its end, selling pressure is intensifying, pushing BTC down 4% in 24 hours and almost 10% in the last month. The central drama isn't about minor ups and downs—it's about a single, critical long-term level that could decide Bitcoin's fate for the cycle ahead.
The Make-or-Break Marker: The 2-Year SMA
Price structure and cycle analysis are converging on one zone: the 2-Year Simple Moving Average (2Y SMA), currently hovering near $82,800.
This isn't just arbitrary support; it is one of Bitcoin's most important cycle markers.
While the 2Y SMA is calculated using daily data, its power lies in its monthly closing interpretation. What matters is not intraday volatility, but where the December monthly candle closes.
The Historical Warning
History offers a stern warning:
• The last time Bitcoin's price dropped and closed beneath the 2Y SMA (mid-2022), it signaled a deep structural breakdown, leading to an additional 51% correction.
That is why December 31st is so crucial. A monthly close below $82,800 will print an official, confirmed breakdown signal used by analysts globally to declare a shift from a long-term trend hold to deeper structural weakness. Once that candle closes, the opportunity to defend the line is gone.
Why the Defense is Stressful: Long-Term Holders Are Selling
The technical pressure is amplified by growing stress beneath the surface, as shown by on-chain data.
The most resilient group of investors—Long-Term Holders (LTHs), defined as wallets holding BTC for over 155 days—are accelerating their selling activity.
Their net outflows have skyrocketed by over 130% in just two weeks this month, jumping from roughly 116,000 BTC to nearly 269,000 BTC by mid-December.
When the strongest hands sell into weakness, the margin for error at critical support zones vanishes.
Defining the Future: Breakdown vs. Rebound
Bitcoin is currently trapped between this long-term cycle support and escalating LTH selling pressure.
conclusion👇:
To avoid a swift 15% drop and the confirmation of an extended bearish phase, Bitcoin must hold the $82,800 line until the final bell rings on December 31st.
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