Japan’s Quiet Pivot Could Shake Global Markets
For decades, Japan lived in a world of near-zero rates. That world is starting to crack.
Polymarket now prices a 98% chance that the Bank of Japan hikes rates by 25 bps this December. Just a 2% chance they stay put. That alone tells you how strong the conviction has become.
Friday, December 19 isn’t just another policy date. It’s a signal moment. A small move on paper, but symbolically big. Japan stepping further away from ultra-loose policy changes how money flows globally.
If the BOJ tightens, FX reacts first. Yen volatility follows. Bonds reprice. And risk assets everywhere feel it — from equities to crypto. Liquidity doesn’t disappear quietly; it shifts.
This is why traders are watching closely. Not because 25 bps breaks the system, but because it confirms a trend that’s been unthinkable for years.
Japan is no longer frozen in time.
And markets hate regime changes they didn’t fully price in.
