December 16 Has Passed — What’s Next for the Market?
Let’s first revisit why December 16 was identified as a period of choppiness rather than a major trend phase.
Following the last FOMC meeting, Chair Powell clearly stated that there were no concrete signals for a January rate cut, emphasizing that future decisions would remain strictly data-dependent.
The next key catalyst after FOMC was the Jobs Data released on December 16.
What was the outcome?
The data came in mixed, providing no decisive macro direction. As a result, the market once again failed to establish a strong trend.
At present, market pricing reflects:
- 74.5% probability of no rate cut in January
For a meaningful bullish expansion, we need to see:
- A clear deterioration in economic data
- An increase in rate-cut odds
Until that happens, upside momentum remains limited.
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What’s the Next Major Catalyst?
Tomorrow evening.
- CPI
- Jobs Data
Until these releases, expectations remain for:
- Consolidation
- Or a mild risk-off environment, rather than a sustained trend
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Technical Outlook
From a technical perspective:
- BTC is currently sitting at its last major support (86.7K)
- A breakdown below this level opens the door toward 83.7K
- If price holds this structure, a recovery toward 90–92K remains likely
The next directional move will be highly dependent on upcoming macro data and news flow.
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Final Thoughts
This phase is not only one of the most difficult, but also the most uncertain—where the market typically shakes out impatient participants.
Despite everything:
- $BTC is still down ~8% YoY from January’s close
- If you are still positioned positively, that in itself is an achievement
Survive. Stay patient. Discipline matters most here.
Stay tuned.
#USNonFarmPayrollReport #USJobsData 
