HBAR remains under heavy pressure. The token has fallen roughly 17% over the past week and is down nearly 24% month over month, continuing a clear and persistent downtrend.
This latest move is important because HBAR has now hit a key technical downside target. What happens next hinges on whether this level can hold—or whether sellers push price even lower.
Head-and-Shoulders Target Achieved
On November 13, HBAR confirmed a head-and-shoulders breakdown on the daily chart. The pattern projected a downside move of about 28% from the neckline.
That target was fulfilled on December 15, when price touched the $0.113 region. Since then, HBAR has stalled and traded sideways. This is notable because the former breakdown target is now acting as short-term support.
At this stage, sellers typically pause to reassess. A decisive break below this zone would signal trend continuation. Holding it, even briefly, could allow for a short-term bounce. The chart pattern has played out—now momentum and flows will determine whether the move is complete.
On-Chain Signals Still Show Weak Demand
The problem for bulls is that capital flow data does not yet support a meaningful rebound.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has dropped to around -0.32, its lowest level in roughly a year. CMF measures whether capital is flowing into or out of an asset. Deeply negative readings indicate sustained capital outflows, even while price hovers near support.
In other words, this pause is not being driven by strong accumulation. Large players—likely whales—remain on the sidelines.
Spot exchange flow data reinforces that view. On December 14, HBAR saw net exchange outflows of approximately $3.16 million, typically a sign of short-term buying or reduced selling pressure.
That support quickly faded. Over the past 48–72 hours, flows have flipped back to net inflows, albeit modest at around $0.30 million. The shift in direction matters more than the size. It suggests that earlier buying interest has cooled and tokens are moving back toward exchanges.
Put simply, demand dried up fast. Large holders remain absent, and short-term buyers have stepped away.
Key Levels That Will Decide the Next Move
With the breakdown target reached—and weak participation confirmed—the chart now leaves little room for indecision.
If HBAR loses the $0.113 level, the next support lies near $0.107. A clean break there opens the door to $0.095, representing roughly another 16% downside from current levels.
On the upside, any rally remains corrective unless price can reclaim $0.155 on a daily close. That level aligns with former support and the underside of the previous range. Without it, rebounds are likely to fail.
HBAR has done exactly what the breakdown pattern projected. The question is no longer whether the setup worked—it did. The real issue is whether weak demand turns this consolidation into another leg lower. For now, the data leans toward further downside.
