XRP has shown a modest short-term bounce, rising roughly 2.3% over the past 24 hours, but the broader trend remains under pressure. Despite the recent uptick, XRP is still down around 14% over the past month and approximately 8.5% over the last seven days.
This weakness is striking given what appears, at first glance, to be a strongly bullish backdrop: six consecutive weeks of net inflows into spot XRP exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Under normal circumstances, sustained ETF demand would be expected to provide meaningful price support.
Yet XRP has stalled. The reason becomes clearer when ETF flow dynamics are examined alongside on-chain holder behavior.
Six Straight Weeks of ETF Inflows — But the Trend Is Decelerating
Spot XRP ETFs have now recorded six consecutive weeks of net inflows, beginning in mid-November and pushing cumulative inflows above $1.01 billion.
The early phase of this run was undeniably strong:
Week of November 14: +$243.05 million
Week of November 21: +$179.60 million
Week of November 28: +$243.95 million
Week of December 5: +$230.74 million
These figures reflected aggressive demand and coincided with XRP’s earlier attempts to push higher.
However, the trend beneath the headline has changed.
Since early December, ETF inflows have cooled sharply:
Week of December 11: +$93.57 million
Week ending December 16: +$19.44 million
While inflows remain positive, they are no longer accelerating. Instead, they are rapidly decelerating, which significantly weakens their impact on price.
ETF flows influence markets most when demand is expanding. Once inflows slow — even if they stay positive — the marginal buyer disappears. This cooling demand helps explain why XRP price has failed to respond positively despite the appearance of continued ETF accumulation.
On-Chain Data Shows a Fractured Holder Landscape
If ETF demand were slowing but on-chain participants were aggressively accumulating, XRP could still find a solid floor. Current on-chain data suggests that is not fully happening.
Older Supply Is Becoming Active
One concerning signal comes from the percentage of XRP supply last active more than one year ago. This metric has risen from 48.75% on December 2 to 51.00%, the highest reading in roughly a month.
When long-dormant supply begins to move, it often signals:
Distribution by long-term holders
Preparations to sell into rallies
Structural sell pressure without visible panic
This does not always imply immediate downside, but it raises the risk that supply may re-enter the market during price bounces.
Selling Pressure Is Easing — But Not Reversing
At the same time, another long-term holder cohort is showing a different behavior.
The Hodler Net Position Change metric for wallets holding XRP for more than 155 days shows that selling pressure has moderated, though not reversed.
Net outflows peaked near 216.86 million XRP on December 11
By December 16, net outflows declined to approximately 154.57 million XRP
This represents a ~29% reduction in net selling pressure
This easing has likely helped XRP avoid a sharp breakdown so far. However, the metric remains negative, meaning long-term holders are still net sellers, just at a slower pace.
One plausible interpretation is that some long-term holders have already repositioned and are now waiting to sell into any strength rather than aggressively distributing at current levels.
Unless this metric turns positive (net accumulation), XRP rallies may continue to fade.
Price Structure Reflects the Stalemate
XRP’s price action mirrors this tug-of-war between cooling demand and moderated selling pressure.
The token is currently trading inside a falling wedge, trapped in the middle of its recent range — a classic consolidation structure that often resolves with a volatility expansion.
Bullish Break Scenario
For bulls, the key level to reclaim is $2.28.
A daily close above $2.28 would break the falling wedge
Such a move would imply approximately 19% upside from current levels
Momentum would shift back toward buyers, forcing sidelined demand to re-engage
Downside Risk Remains More Immediate
Failure to hold support could accelerate downside pressure:
A break below $1.74 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement) opens the door to $1.59
If broader market weakness persists, deeper downside toward $1.41 becomes possible
As long as ETF inflows continue to slow and on-chain signals remain split, downside risks remain asymmetric.
Why ETF Inflows Alone Are No Longer Enough
ETF inflows matter — but their rate of change matters more than their absolute value.
Right now:
ETF demand is still positive but clearly decelerating
Long-term holders are selling less, but not buying
Older supply is becoming active
This combination explains why XRP is stuck in a narrow range rather than trending higher. Support is holding, but sellers are gradually regaining control.
Until ETF inflows re-accelerate or on-chain data confirms genuine long-term accumulation, XRP price bounces are likely to remain fragile.
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