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🚨 US UNEMPLOYMENT HITS 4-YEAR HIGH — STAGFLATION ALERT!
The latest data is in: unemployment at 4.6% vs 4.5% expected — the highest since Sep 2021. The US labor market is showing cracks, and growth momentum is slowing.
But here’s the kicker: inflation is still around 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target. That’s the textbook stagflation scenario: slowing growth + sticky inflation.
This puts the Fed in a tough spot:
Don’t cut rates → risk recession as job losses accelerate.
Cut rates → risk reigniting inflation.
History warns us: 1970s saw the Fed crush inflation with huge rate hikes → S&P 500 went nowhere for a decade. We might not see that extreme, but lessons remain: aggressive inflation fights can trigger big market crashes.
📈 Market takeaway: If the Fed stays hawkish, a crash could come first, then a massive rally. Many expect more easing in 2026, but the path won’t be smooth.
Traders, eyes on: Fed policy, unemployment trends, and inflation reports — the next moves will shape markets for years.