Tomorrow’s Japanese rate decision is in focus. I’ve reviewed historical market reactions, especially past 25 bps hikes.
The major difference this time is expectations versus surprise.
Last year’s rate hike caught the market off guard and caused BTC to dump from 62,000 to 49,590. That move happened because positioning wasn’t prepared.
This time, the situation is different. The hike is largely priced in, most traders are already short, and liquidity is stacking on that side of the market.
Based on this, downside risk appears limited.
I’m expecting a maximum drawdown of ~5%, with BTC potentially testing 80,200, possibly 78,500, and in a worst-case scenario 74,500. From there, a strong rebound toward 89,500 is likely.
Looking ahead to next week, the broader structure points toward the 101,500 region.
@Crypto_LUX focuses on impact, positioning, and liquidity, not headlines.
Direction matters more than fear.
Questions? Drop them below.
