$SPX (SPX6900): Is the Bounce a Trap? (15m Analysis)
Looking at the 15-minute chart for $SPX , things are looking a bit shaky right now. We just saw a pretty sharp drop from the $0.51 level down to about $0.47, and while the price is currently trying to crawl back up to $0.483, it’s not looking very convincing just yet.
The Technical Breakdown
The overall market structure is still leaning bearish. We’re seeing a pattern of "lower highs," and this current recovery feels more like a "dead-cat bounce" than a true reversal.
The Support Zone: All eyes are on the $0.474 – $0.470 range. This is our major intraday base. If this breaks, things could get ugly fast.
The Ceiling: We have immediate resistance sitting between $0.487 and $0.492. Even if we clear that, the real "boss level" is at $0.505 – $0.510. That’s where the original breakdown happened, and it’s going to take a lot of strength to get back above it.
Volume Tells the Story
The red flags are in the volume. When the price dropped, the selling volume was heavy—people were eager to exit. However, this current bounce is happening on light volume, which suggests there isn't a lot of "big money" buying the dip yet.
My Take on the Move
Right now, my bias is Bearish-Neutral.
As long as we stay below $0.49, I expect any small rallies to fade away.
I won't feel truly bullish again until I see the price reclaim $0.50 and actually hold that level with strong buying volume.
The Game Plan:
I’m staying patient here. The "safe" move is to either wait for a clean reclaim of $0.50 or wait to see if the $0.47 support holds on a retest. Don't chase the green candles in a downtrend!
