Traders,
Tomorrow’s Japanese rate decision is a major event to watch. I’ve reviewed how the market reacted in previous cycles, especially when rates were increased by 25 bps.
The real factor this time isn’t the rate hike itself — it’s whether the outcome surprises the market.
Last year, the hike caught traders off guard, and $BTC sold off aggressively from around 62,000 down to 49,590. That move happened purely because positioning wasn’t ready.
This time is different. The expectation is already built into price. Most participants are leaning short, and liquidity is clearly stacked on the downside.
Because of this setup, I see limited downside risk. My projected drawdown is roughly 5%, with BTC potentially tapping 80,200, possibly 78,500, and in a worst-case scenario around 74,500. From there, a solid rebound toward the 89,500 area is likely.
Looking into next week, the broader market structure supports a continuation move toward the 101,500 zone.
At @Crypto_LUX , the focus stays on market impact, positioning, and liquidity — not emotional headlines.
Stay focused on direction, not fear.
Questions are welcome below.
