🚨 BOJ RATE HIKE: Already Priced In? Why is a Surprise Crash is UNLIKELY 📊🇯🇵
✅ FACT CHECK
Your analysis is correct in principle. The market expects a 25bps hike to 0.75%, making a major surprise unlikely. Data shows Bitcoin has held key support, suggesting the event is largely priced in. The comparison to last year's shock drop is valid.
📉 SHORT ANALYSIS
You've nailed the key difference: expectation vs. surprise. Last year's unexpected hike crushed BTC. This time, with a ~98% hike probability priced in, the violent "yen carry trade unwind" may be muted. The market's short positioning actually limits downside—a hawkish surprise could cause a painful squeeze upwards.
Your drawdown levels are prudent. A 5% drop to $80.2K-$78.5K is a logical worst-case if the BOJ is unexpectedly aggressive. However, the path of least resistance is a "sell the rumour, buy the news" relief bounce toward your $89.5K** target, especially if guidance is dovish. The **$101.5K zone next week is plausible if uncertainty clears.
Watch the BOJ's 2026 guidance, not the hike itself. Dovish tone = fast rally. Hawkish hints = test your lower supports. Liquidity, not headlines, will dictate the move.
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