Bitcoin Tests Its “True Market Mean” as 2025 Structure Begins to Resemble 2022
Bitcoin ($BTC) is currently navigating a critical phase as price action tests what analysts call the “True Market Mean”, a level that has historically defined the boundary between temporary pullbacks and prolonged bear markets.
Bitcoin at a Critical Support Level
BTC has declined to approximately $81.3K, representing the aggregate cost basis of all non-dormant coins. This metric has long served as a structural “line in the sand” for the broader market. In previous cycles, sustained trading above this level allowed the market to recover, while a breakdown often preceded multi-year bearish conditions.
For now, price remains marginally above this anchor, but the margin for error is thin.
Growing Pressure from Underwater Supply
Following Bitcoin’s drop below the 0.75 quantile level at $96.1K, more than 25% of the total circulating supply is now held at an unrealized loss. This shift significantly increases psychological pressure on recent buyers, particularly those who entered near cycle highs.
Historically, such conditions force a decisive outcome: either capitulation, accelerating downside, or strong hands absorbing supply, forming a durable bottom.
Market Structure Echoes Early 2022
Analysts are increasingly drawing parallels between the current market environment and Q1 2022. Demand across spot markets and Bitcoin ETFs has weakened, while institutional participants appear more defensive, adopting a cautious “wait-and-see” approach rather than aggressive accumulation.
This similarity in structure raises concerns that the market could be entering a prolonged consolidation or distribution phase if demand does not recover soon.
Market Outlook: Neutral but Fragile
The broader sentiment remains neutral, yet extremely fragile. While Bitcoin has not broken its key support, momentum remains weak, and confidence among large players is clearly deteriorating.
Large-cap assets and ETF inflows are showing signs of cooling, reinforcing the idea that institutional capital is prioritizing capital preservation over expansion at this stage.
Key Levels to Watch Going Forward
To regain bullish momentum, Bitcoin must reclaim $106.2K (0.85 quantile) as a confirmed support level. Such a move would likely signal renewed strength and a continuation of the broader bullish cycle.
On the downside, a daily close below $81.3K would be a significant technical and psychological breakdown, potentially marking the transition into a more definitive bear market phase.
As macroeconomic uncertainty continues to influence risk assets, Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to external shocks. The coming weeks may prove pivotal in defining the direction of the 2025 market cycle.
