Today, if the Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 0.75% as scheduled, social media will be flooded with claims of "bad news exhausted, perfect bottom-hunting chance" — but reality is far more complex.

"Bad news out = good news" is misleading in the yen carry trade-dominated market. In Japan’s last three rate hikes, Bitcoin surged to lure bulls before plunging violently, with declines of 23%, 26%, 31%. The real downside is that global liquidity tightening from rate hikes has just begun.

The market looks calm now, but on-chain data warns: surging large transfers, monthly high net inflows to exchanges, negative perpetual contract funding rates — smart money is quietly exiting, leaving retail investors to take over in the "good news" illusion.

This rate hike is the start of Japan’s monetary normalization; Kazuo Ueda hinted at more rate hikes ahead, while the Fed’s rate cuts are delayed. This policy mismatch will keep the carry trade liquidation wave going for weeks or months.

Don’t rush to call a reversal. True "bad news exhaustion" requires full carry position liquidation, safe leverage levels, and bottomed sentiment — right now, it’s just the start of the storm.

If you really believe in the good news, ask yourself: when everyone sees an opportunity, who’s still selling?#BinanceABCs