XRP continues to face strong downside pressure after extending its broader downtrend and slipping decisively below the psychological $2.00 level. The rejection has significantly weakened short-term bullish momentum, despite lingering optimism among certain segments of investors who believe the correction may present a long-term opportunity rather than a structural breakdown.
So far, that optimism has failed to materialize into stronger on-chain participation. Network activity remains subdued, limiting XRP’s ability to attract fresh demand and making any sustained price recovery increasingly difficult under current conditions.
Long-Term XRP Holders Are Showing Conviction
On-chain data paints a nuanced picture beneath the surface. According to HODL Waves, wallets holding XRP for one to two years have increased their share of the total supply by approximately 3% since the start of the month. This group now controls nearly 11% of circulating XRP, signaling growing conviction among longer-term participants.
This shift suggests that many mid-term holders are transitioning into long-term holders, a behavior commonly observed during extended periods of price weakness. Rather than capitulating during drawdowns, these investors appear willing to absorb volatility, betting on a future recovery instead of reacting to short-term price fluctuations.
However, there is a less optimistic interpretation as well. The increase in long-term holdings may also imply that a large portion of these investors are currently underwater, effectively forced to hold their XRP positions while waiting for prices to recover.
Network Metrics Signal Ongoing Structural Weakness
While holder conviction is rising, broader macro indicators continue to flash warning signs. The Network Value to Transactions (NVT) ratio has climbed to elevated levels, recently reaching a three-month high.
Historically, rising NVT readings indicate that market valuation is growing faster than actual on-chain utility. In XRP’s case, transaction activity has not kept pace with market expectations, suggesting that price remains disconnected from underlying network usage. This imbalance weakens recovery attempts, as upward price moves lack confirmation from real demand and sustained transactional growth.
Without a meaningful rebound in on-chain activity, rallies risk being short-lived and vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.
XRP Price Outlook: Key Levels to Watch
At the time of writing, XRP trades near $1.86, still firmly below the $2.00 level lost last week. The decline followed a failed breakout attempt from a month-long downtrend, reinforcing the bearish technical structure.
The token is currently holding just above the $1.85 support zone, a level that has already been tested multiple times. If selling pressure continues to ease, XRP may enter a consolidation phase below $1.94. However, a deterioration in market sentiment could expose the downside toward $1.79, extending short-term losses.
A bullish reversal scenario depends heavily on improving network activity and broader crypto market stability. A decisive break above $1.94 would be the first signal of recovery, while flipping $2.02 into support could open the door for a move toward $2.20, effectively invalidating the current bearish trend.
📌 Final Thoughts
XRP is at a critical crossroads. Long-term holders are showing patience, but without stronger network usage, price recovery remains fragile. The coming weeks may determine whether this consolidation turns into accumulation—or deeper correction.
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