BOJ Rate Decision – December 19, 2025

Expected change: 0.5% → 0.75% (biggest in ~30 years)

Reason: Rising inflation in Japan; they want to control price increases.

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Impact on the Japanese Yen & Crypto

1. Stronger yen → borrowing in yen becomes more expensive.

2. Yen carry trades unwind → investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy crypto or stocks may sell those assets.

3. Short-term volatility → Bitcoin and other risk assets often dip 10–30% after a rate hike.

Past patterns: Every recent BOJ rate hike saw Bitcoin drop 20–30% shortly after.

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Scenarios

As expected (0.75%) → likely short-term dip (10–20%), but markets could rebound quickly (“buy the news”).

Bigger than expected → yen jumps more, more selling, crypto could drop harder (20–30%+).

Smaller/no hike → yen weakens, risk assets like Bitcoin could surge.

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Bottom line

Expect wild swings today.

Avoid heavy leverage.

Consider waiting until the market stabilizes before making big moves.