Bitcoin Faces Amplified Swings as $23B Options Expire Next Week

◼️ What’s happening

Over $23 billion in BTC options are set to expire next Friday on Deribit — more than 50% of total open interest. Such a concentrated expiry often acts as a volatility catalyst.

◼️ Volatility signals

• 30-day implied volatility ~45%, rebounding sharply

• Options skew near -5%, showing traders are still paying up for downside protection

This reflects continued caution as markets approach year-end.

◼️ Why it matters

Large expiries can trigger:

• Short-term price whipsaws around key strikes

• Dealer hedging flows that exaggerate moves

• Temporary liquidity hunts before trend clarity emerges

◼️ Market outlook

While BTC is holding firm for now, options data suggests the market is bracing for turbulence, not complacency. Direction will likely be decided after expiry, once hedging pressure fades.

◼️ Trading takeaway

Expect higher intraday volatility into expiry. Risk management matters more than prediction — size wisely, respect levels, and don’t over-leverage.

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