$BTC Defies Rate Hike as Arthur Hayes Predicts Yen at 200 per Dollar
Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience, rebounding on Friday, December 19, 2025, and reclaiming the $88,000 level, despite the Bank of Japan (BoJ) raising interest rates to their highest in three decades. This bullish market reaction comes as former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes doubled down on his prediction that the yen could weaken significantly, potentially reaching 200 yen per U.S. dollar, which he argues is fundamentally bullish for Bitcoin.
Key Insights
Unexpected Rebound: Historically, BoJ rate hikes have preceded significant Bitcoin sell-offs. However, the market viewed the recent rate increase to 0.75% as less restrictive than anticipated, focusing instead on the continued existence of negative real interest rates in Japan.
Hayes' Bullish Thesis: Arthur Hayes posited on X (formerly Twitter), "Don't fight the BOJ: negative real rates is the explicit policy," suggesting that capital will flow from the depreciating yen into inflation-resistant assets like Bitcoin, potentially pushing $BTC to $1 million.
Market Sentiment: The initial dip in Bitcoin price below $86,000 was quickly reversed, as traders interpreted the BoJ's move and softer U.S. inflation data as ultimately supportive for risk assets.
Current Trading: As of Friday morning, Bitcoin is trading around $87,000, with technical support identified around the $84,000 to $85,000 range and resistance near $90,000.
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