Short version for lazy readers. Next year hypothesis.

Liquidity is not money, well it is sort of money, but it actually closer to credit. When economy is functioning properly, liquidity, money and credit are interchangeable and all behave like money. But economy is not normal now. And in such conditions liquidity injection or private credit creation does not help any more.

Most of the “liquidity” injection is not flowing where you think it is right now, and many Trump policies are actually deflational despite being labeled by stupid media as inflational.

Next major money injection will happen in March and April with regular and extraordinal tax refunds in the USA. In a month or two after this will be supported by more liquidity injection by FED led by new chairman.

For markets it means they need to not fall into bear phase before that happens. If markets hold range even if it is slightly falling or rising, bull market will restart sometimes after May. This is most likely scenario. Trump has to hold the floor under markets und pump them later in the year otherwise he will effectively lose his power in midterm elections.

#quinns_economics $BTC