Bitcoin Price Faces Key Risk as $2.7B Options Expire — $80K in Focus
Bitcoin $BTC bounced about 3% on Dec. 19, briefly touching $87,960 after the Bank of Japan announced its first interest rate decision in 11 months. Despite the short-term relief, market structure and on-chain signals suggest BTC could be heading for a deeper pullback toward $80,000 as a massive options expiry and ETF outflows weigh on price.
⚠️ Options Expiry Adds Pressure
Bitcoin is approaching a critical moment with over 31,000 options contracts, worth roughly $2.7 billion, set to expire on Friday, according to Deribit data.
Max pain level: $88,000 (slightly above current price)
Put/Call ratio: 0.8 (more calls than puts — mildly bullish)
Key open interest levels:
Calls clustered near $100,000
Puts concentrated around $85,000
Historically, BTC tends to see heightened volatility before and after major options expiries — and this one is no exception.
📉 Falling Leverage & Weak Demand
Bitcoin’s futures open interest has dropped sharply to $59 billion, down from $94 billion in October, signaling that traders are reducing leverage and risk exposure — often a sign of cooling demand.
Adding to the pressure, spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see outflows. Data from SoSoValue shows recent losses of over $161 million, bringing total net inflows down to $57 billion, from more than $60 billion earlier this year.
📊 Technicals Point to Further Downside
From a technical perspective, the daily chart paints a bearish picture:
BTC has formed a large bearish flag pattern, typically a continuation signal
Price is trading below:
50-day and 100-day EMAs
Supertrend indicator
Key Murrey Math support levels
This setup increases the probability of a downside breakout.
🎯 Key Levels to Watch
Primary downside target: $80,000 (November low)
If $80K breaks: Next support sits near $75,000
Bearish scenario invalidated if: BTC reclaims $93,750
📌 Bottom line: While Bitcoin’s rebound offers short-term relief, options expiry, declining leverage, ETF outflows, and bearish technical patterns suggest downside risk remains high. Bulls need a decisive move above $93,750 to regain control — otherwise, $80K could be back in play.
