CryptoQuant reports that a Bitcoin bear market has begun, citing a slowdown in demand as the main signal. After three major demand waves since 2023 — driven by U.S. spot ETF launches, the presidential election, and corporate Bitcoin treasuries — demand growth has fallen below trend since October 2025. This suggests most incremental demand has already been absorbed, removing a key price support for Bitcoin.

CryptoQuant sees downside risks toward $70,000, with a potential deeper drop to $56,000 if momentum is not regained. The firm notes that the bear market effectively began in mid-November after the largest crypto liquidation event on October 10. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs became net sellers in Q4 2025, and addresses holding 100–1,000 BTC are growing below trend, echoing patterns seen before the 2022 bear market.

Derivatives data, including falling perpetual futures funding rates and Bitcoin trading below its 365-day moving average, indicate reduced risk appetite. CryptoQuant emphasizes that Bitcoin’s four-year cycles are driven by demand cycles rather than halving events.

Currently, Bitcoin trades around $87,800. While CryptoQuant takes a bearish view, other institutions remain bullish: Citigroup forecasts $143,000–$189,000, Standard Chartered recently halved its 2026 target to $150,000, JPMorgan sees $170,000, and Bitwise anticipates new all-time highs in 2026.