XRP is nearing a decisive moment in its 2025 price trajectory as on-chain and technical data signal a massive shift in market dynamics. While the asset remains weak on higher timeframes, the intense selling pressure that dominated the mid-month correction has begun to collapse, dropping by 39% in just one week. However, despite this easing downside, XRP is now colliding with a formidable 1.82 billion token supply wall, making the $1.96–$1.97 resistance zone the ultimate arbiter of whether a genuine trend reversal is underway.

I. Sellers Are Losing Their Grip

The case for an XRP rebound is currently supported by a combination of momentum shifts and a significant reduction in holder distribution:

  • Bullish RSI Divergence: On the 12-hour chart, XRP has printed a bullish divergence. Between late November and mid-December, price made a lower low, but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) formed a higher low. This technical signal indicates that while sellers were still active, they no longer had the momentum to push the market lower with the same force.

  • 39% Drop in Sell Pressure: On-chain data from the HODLer Net Position Change metric confirms this shift. Daily net selling by long-term holders peaked at 216.9 million XRP on December 11 but plummeted to 132.2 million XRP by December 18. This sharp decline suggests that far fewer coins are being pushed onto the market, allowing buyers to stabilize the price.

II. The $1.97 Supply Wall: The Final Obstacle

Despite the drop in active selling, XRP faces a structural barrier that is difficult to ignore:

  • Massive Cost Basis Cluster: On-chain cost basis data reveals a heavy supply cluster between $1.96 and $1.97. Approximately 1.82 billion XRP were accumulated in this price range. As the price approaches this zone, many holders reach their break-even point and are historically inclined to sell, creating a powerful resistance zone.

  • The Breakout Requirement: XRP has repeatedly failed to hold above $1.96 in recent weeks. For the current technical divergence to evolve into a real rally, bulls must secure a clean daily close above $1.96. Failure to do so would likely turn the current bounce into another "dead cat bounce," potentially leading to a retest of the $1.76 support.

III. Conclusion and Short-Term Outlook

The short-term outlook for XRP is cautiously optimistic, characterized by a struggle between fading sellers and a stubborn supply wall. While the 39% drop in selling pressure provides a necessary cushion, the lack of a breakout above $1.97 keeps the asset in a defensive posture. Investors should watch the $1.76 level closely; a breakdown there would signal that sellers have regained control. Conversely, a confirmed break above the supply wall would invalidate the bearish trend and signal a strong recovery into the new year.

⚠️ Important Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and is based on analyst commentary, technical patterns, and on-chain metrics. It is not financial advice, nor should it be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security or cryptocurrency. The cryptocurrency market is highly speculative, volatile, and subject to external factors. Readers must conduct their own comprehensive research (DYOR) and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.