🔥 $BTC | Cycle Structure Update
This model has consistently identified major Bitcoin cycle highs and lows going back to 2011 — and once again, the setup is starting to look familiar.
Here’s what the data is showing:
• Historical cycle peaks have progressively formed at lower deviation levels (+3 → +2 → +1), highlighting diminishing upside over time
• Each cycle delivers smaller percentage returns as Bitcoin matures
• Price is currently trading near the upper deviation zone, where risk historically increases
• The broader trend remains bullish, but asymmetry is no longer favorable
From here, there are two clear paths:
If $BTC continues higher, it likely enters a late-cycle extension phase
If price stalls or rejects, mean reversion toward lower bands becomes the higher-probability move
Experienced capital doesn’t chase narratives — it tracks statistical boundaries.
This is the zone where optimism starts colliding with reality.
