Why a BOJ hike didn’t hurt Bitcoin

1️⃣ The hike was fully priced

Futures and swaps were already implying ~100% probability of a 25 bps hike.

When an outcome is fully expected, it can’t shock price.

Markets don’t move on the event — they move on the delta vs expectations.

So when the BOJ did exactly what was anticipated, there was no reason to sell.

2️⃣ The real signal was forward guidance

The governor’s tone mattered more than the rate.

Key takeaway:

Future tightening will be slow, gradual, and data-dependent.

That immediately reduced fears of:

A rapid yen carry trade unwind

Forced deleveraging across global risk assets

Sudden USD/JPY volatility spikes

For BTC, that’s a liquidity relief signal.

3️⃣ Why the “BTC to $70K” calls failed

Those bearish scenarios assumed:

A surprise hike or

Hawkish guidance implying multiple rapid increases

Neither happened.

Instead:

Downside was already discounted

Positioning was skewed bearish

Result: relief bid, not panic

This is classic sell the rumor, buy the news behavior.

4️⃣ What this says about Bitcoin right now

BTC is increasingly trading like:

A liquidity-sensitive macro asset

Not a reflexive “risk-off dump” instrument

That’s a structural shift.

It doesn’t mean BTC ignores central banks — it means it reacts to:

Liquidity expectations

Policy surprises

Funding stress signals

Not headlines.

📌 Bottom line (nailed it)

Markets move on:

Expectations ✔️

Positioning ✔️

Liquidity ✔️

Not on:

Obvious headlines

Fully priced decisions

When central banks surprise, volatility explodes. When they confirm expectations, price often does the opposite of the crowd.