Trump’s Gold Card Sales Claims Disputed as Prediction Markets Say No Real Sales Yet

President Donald Trump’s administration claimed that the newly introduced Trump Gold Card program has generated $1.3 billion in sales, calling the response “booming.” However, independent market indicators are now challenging the credibility of those figures and raising doubts about how many — if any — Gold Cards have actually been sold.

Trump and his allies have touted the Gold Card — an investment-based immigration pathway that requires wealthy individuals to pay a $1 million fee (plus processing costs) in exchange for U.S. permanent residency — as a high-demand program attracting global interest. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick recently went so far as to suggest strong daily sales, reinforcing optimistic projections from the administration.

However, prediction market data from platforms like Polymarket now strongly disputes these sales claims, with a high probability that zero Gold Cards will actually be sold in 2025 under the program’s current criteria. Polymarket’s pricing models assign roughly an 88–94 % chance that no completed sales occur this year, and indicate that assertions about $1.3 billion in revenue are not supported by finalized payment data.

Experts note that the Gold Card remains unclear and legally complex, lacking a fully codified immigration category and predictable issuance process. Unlike well-established visa routes such as the EB-5 investor program, the Gold Card’s structure and implementation timeline remain ambiguous, which may be deterring potential applicants despite high-profile claims.

Why it matters:

Prediction markets suggest sales figures may be overestimated or unsupported by real transactions.

Skepticism around the Gold Card highlights uncertainty in execution and legal grounding.

The controversy underscores how public claims can diverge sharply from market-based expectations in immigration and policy narratives.