Right now, the market is sitting at a critical inflection point.

While many are still pushing narratives of an incoming altseason and a broad bullish breakout, the underlying data is telling a very different story. Liquidity conditions are tightening, momentum is fading, and risk is quietly building beneath the surface.

I spent dozens of hours digging through on-chain data, market structure, and macro signals, and the conclusion isn’t comfortable — but it’s clear.

What we’re seeing isn’t the start of a new expansion. It looks far more like the early stages of a drawn-out bear phase that most aren’t prepared for.

Here’s why the warning signs are stacking up 🧵👇