This single breakout could completely change the trajectory of this cycle — not overnight wealth, but the kind of shift that finally unlocks a true alt expansion, similar to what we experienced in 2021.

So why has this bull market felt so miserable for most participants?

Because under the surface, altcoins never actually recovered.

Here’s the reality many don’t want to confront:

Altcoins priced against Bitcoin have been locked in a persistent downtrend for nearly four years, dating back to January 2022.

By several measures, alts are now more oversold than at any other point in history — RSI readings are at extreme lows rarely seen before.

While Bitcoin rallied roughly 8.5x from the $15,400 bottom to recent highs, the broader alt market remains near multi-year relative lows.

We’ve already seen what happens when the market tries to break out.

Attempts in March 2024 and November 2024 sparked brief rallies, but both ultimately failed to hold. And for most of 2025, altcoins endured relentless pressure — capped off by the sharp October 10th flush that wiped out remaining optimism.

That’s the painful part.

Now for the part that actually matters.

There are early signs that conditions may finally be shifting:

RSI is approaching a bullish crossover, a setup that last preceded the 2021 alt expansion.

MACD is close to turning positive after more than three years of suppression (excluding the brief March 2024 fakeout).

Historically, altcoins begin to outperform Bitcoin once liquidity conditions reverse — particularly when quantitative tightening ends and easing resumes.

Looking ahead, the macro backdrop could align: easing inflation, potential rate cuts, renewed liquidity, and a more accommodative policy stance into 2026.

None of this guarantees instant upside. But markets don’t reward patience when it feels comfortable — they reward it when it feels irrational.

If altcoins manage to decisively break the long-standing downtrend, the move that follows likely won’t be subtle.