Cardano (ADA) has staged a modest rebound from the $0.34 zone, but beneath the surface, the market tells a far more brutal story.
More than $900 million in realized losses have been recorded in December alone, marking one of the most severe capitulation phases for ADA holders since 2023.
This wave of losses follows prolonged bearish sentiment after the sharp collapse on October 10, an event that erased over 14 months of accumulated gains and shifted market structure decisively to the downside.
Investors Underwater as Losses Intensify
As ADA plunged toward the $0.35 region, the average Cardano holder found themselves sitting on roughly a 40% unrealized loss. Notably, even investors who entered the market within the past 365 days are facing similar drawdowns — highlighting how widespread the damage has become.
Under mounting psychological pressure, a large portion of investors were forced to realize losses throughout December, accelerating sell-side liquidity and reinforcing downside momentum.
Historically, such spikes in realized losses often coincide with late-stage capitulation, when weak hands exit and stronger participants begin positioning more selectively.
Whales Increase Selling Pressure as Open Interest Remains Depressed
On the spot market, selling pressure has been largely driven by wallets holding between 1 million and 10 million ADA. Since the beginning of December, this cohort has reduced its holdings by approximately 130 million ADA, signaling aggressive distribution rather than accumulation.
Meanwhile, derivatives data reflects persistent caution. ADA futures open interest remains muted around $657 million, indicating that leveraged traders are largely staying on the sidelines following the October breakdown.
Low open interest suggests a lack of speculative conviction, which often precedes either prolonged consolidation or a volatility expansion once direction becomes clearer.
At the time of writing, ADA is trading near $0.37, recovering roughly 4% from recent lows.
Cardano Price Forecast: ADA Faces Strong Resistance at $0.37
From a technical standpoint, ADA’s rebound from the $0.34 support zone has been notable but remains corrective in nature.
The $0.37 level represents a key confluence resistance, aligning with:
The upper boundary of the descending channel
The 20-day EMA, which has repeatedly capped price advances since October 10
As long as ADA trades below this zone, the broader trend remains bearish.
Bullish Scenario
If ADA manages a decisive breakout above the descending channel, the next upside target lies near $0.51, a level that also coincides with prior structural resistance.
However, before any sustainable uptrend can be confirmed, price must reclaim the 50-day EMA, which remains a critical trend filter.
Bearish Scenario
Should selling pressure return, $0.34 is expected to act as the nearest and most important support. A breakdown below this level could reopen downside risk toward deeper liquidity zones.
Momentum Indicators: Early Signs of Stabilization
RSI remains below the neutral level but is currently testing its own moving average, suggesting bearish momentum is weakening rather than accelerating.
Stochastic Oscillator has started to rebound from oversold territory, opening the door for a short-term technical bounce, even if the broader trend stays bearish.
Trading Plan: ADA/USDT (Short-Term Setup)
🔵 Buy Setup (Aggressive Counter-Trend)
Entry Buy: 0.34 – 0.35
Take Profit 1: 0.37
Take Profit 2: 0.40
Stop Loss: 0.32
👉 This setup is suitable only for short-term traders targeting a technical rebound.
🔴 Sell Setup (Trend-Following)
Entry Sell: 0.37 – 0.38
Take Profit 1: 0.34
Take Profit 2: 0.30
Stop Loss: 0.41
👉 This setup aligns with the prevailing downtrend and rejection from key resistance.
Conclusion: Pain Is High — But Volatility Creates Opportunity
Cardano is currently trapped between capitulation-driven selling and early signs of stabilization. While realized losses and whale distribution highlight ongoing stress, the slowing momentum and technical reactions suggest the market may be approaching a decision point.
Whether ADA forms a durable bottom or resumes its downtrend will depend heavily on how price reacts around the $0.37 resistance and $0.34 support zones.
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