Bitcoin Four-Year Cycle: Is It Still Alive?
In recent market discussions, many analysts are dismissing Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle. They argue that ETFs, regulatory clarity, and institutional adoption have pushed Bitcoin into the mainstream, meaning it will no longer follow the old boom-and-bust pattern. Bitwise’s Matt Hougan and ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood also share this view.
However, Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer disagrees. According to him, if we visually compare previous cycles (2012, 2016, 2020), the current cycle aligns almost perfectly with history. After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin saw a strong rally that topped around $125,000 in October 2025, similar to what happened in past cycles.
The core concept of the four-year cycle is the Bitcoin halving, where mining rewards are reduced by 50%. This creates a supply shock that pushes prices higher. This is often followed by a deep correction of around 70–80%, after which a slow recovery continues until the next halving.
According to Timmer’s analysis, the current bearish phase could extend into 2026. He believes 2026 may be an “off year” for Bitcoin. A strong support zone lies between $65,000 and $75,000.
In the short term, there may be pain, but historically, the cycle is not over yet — it is simply in its winter phase.
