Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer Anticipates a "Mediocre" 2026 for Bitcoin as Four-Year Cycle Continues
Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments' Director of Global Macro, indicates that Bitcoin’s established four-year cycle seems to remain intact — but implies that the upcoming year might be uninspiring for the leading cryptocurrency. Timmer, while optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term future, thinks the recent surge might have reached its high point and considers 2026 as potentially an “off year.”
According to Timmer, Bitcoin's rise to approximately $125,000 in October 2025 corresponds with historical cycle peaks. Drawing from historical halving trends, he contends that significant bull markets often end both in price and duration, succeeded by approximately a year-long cooling phase. For Bitcoin, this cooling period — frequently referred to as a “Bitcoin winter” — might last until 2026, with technical support anticipated between $65,000 and $75,000.
Although maintaining a cautious short-term perspective, Timmer still views Bitcoin as a long-term bull asset. His prediction differs from more hopeful analysts who think that institutional adoption and spot Bitcoin ETF investments might support growth into 2026. Yet, if history is any guide, the upcoming year might focus more on consolidation and range-bound trading rather than significant profits.
