Here’s the latest market-implied probabilities for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision at the January 2026 FOMC meeting:

📊 January 2026 Fed Rate Decision Odds

According to current trading data and CME FedWatch implied probabilities (from interest rate futures markets):

≈ 73–78% chance the Fed holds rates unchanged at the January meeting.

≈ 20–27% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut. This reflects a modest market expectation of easing after the December move.

Small (~1–2%) chance of larger rate changes (e.g., a 50 bps cut or a hike).

👉 Futures and probability data show markets favor a pause in rate cuts in January, rather than immediate additional easing.

The Fed recently cut rates by 25 bps in December 2025, bringing the federal funds rate to about 3.50–3.75%.

Market expectations have shifted toward a pause in the easing cycle, with traders pricing in a higher likelihood that January will be steady rather than cut further.

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